A series on “how we are managing our retirement investments?”

One way or another, we are affected by the US financial crisis. This has significantly reduced our retirement savings and CPF investments. Lehman has just filed for bankruptcy protection while Merrill Lynch may soon be sold to Bank of America.

I would like to advance and hold a series of talks where SilverHairs can share their personal investment philosophy and how they are currently managing their investment portfolio. We may not have the answers, but I believe sharing this topic is key to keeping a sober head on our retirement plans.

Charles Chua has made the first offer to share with us his personal investment story. Fellow SilverHairs who wish to share their story are encouraged to let me know here. The dates and time have not been selected, but likely will be held on a weekday.

For those unable to attend or are overseas, you may log into SHC Online at star-conference.com to hear and view the sessions live. Any feedback to improve these sessions and benefit fellow SilverHairs appreciated. Terence Seah

Details:

  • Date:  Mon 29 Sep 2008
  • Time:  1900 – 1945 hrs (Get to know others on this subject.   1945 hrs – please be seated.  2000 – 2130 hrs (Session commence).  Times are very sharp.  Please be on time.
  • Place:  18 Bali Lane
  • Charges:  No charge to SHC members.  Strictly for registered SHC members only.
  • F&B:  Buy from counter.

Registration list:

  1. Charles Chua (He shall be sharing with us on the topic "How he is managing his retirement investments)
  2. Caroline Sit
  3. Ivan Lim
  4. Lydia Chin
  5. Annie Loh
  6. Kenneth Tan  Ann To
  7. Chow Weng
  8. Rene Leong
  9. Joy Chuang
  10. Ivy Low (would prefer to fly in)
  11. Tian Soo (cannot come, so no tapioca leaves and no tapioca)
  12. Celia Wong
  13. Andrew Thio
  14. Vivien Ler
  15. Helen Wong
  16. Daniel Chan
  17. Ella Tan
  18. Ronald Wie
  19. Roger Lim
  20. Catherine Ho
  21. Julie Yeo
  22. Daisy Yeo
  23. Terence Seah
  24. Jane Wong
  25. Susan Tan
  26. Cheng Pun
  27. Eleanor Chan  Christina Chan WH
  28. LH Jie Seok Cheng
  29. Eileen Lee
  30. Lina Tan
  31. Jennifer Lim
  32. Charles Wee
  33. Jessie Teo
  34. Peggy Wee
  35. Lina Ng
  36. John Howe
  37. (Limited to 40 pax)

Terence Seah/Charles Chua

Author: Terence Seah

Founder

188 thoughts on “A series on “how we are managing our retirement investments?””

  1. Once in a while I am satiated with something serious, smthg thought provoking. Thanks Sengh, this is yet another.

    More news than America wobbling in financial doldrums have grabbed my attention : bombs set off by terrorists in India, a Government House plundered by mobsters & turned into a bazaar, demonstrations allowed here (and I see this as tempting fate), head-on collision of trains, disasters in China. These hv affected me more than the US’ regurgitation of the same pain which neither hit my heart nor my pockets.

    Institutions rise and fall as did the Roman Empire (Nero watching the burning of Rome is still vivid), the usurpation of the monarchs to warlords, the demise of the British Empire, East india Company, the US’ promise of a New World, New Order…….all have come, gone or will be gone.

    The next rise of Nation will probably come in the likes of China, India, even Brazil and Mexico, not forgetting the Sheikhdoms.

    This Good Earth is being globalised and soon there will be one big liberated Nation liberal and free, culminating in one Big Debauchery when morality becomes a dirty word, when it’s fashionable to covet others’ possessions, when one is licensed in the name of one’s almighty, to maim & kill……before we hand over the reins to the apes.

    Most, if not all, of us wont live to see this Day of Handover. Not given a choice, we will have to live on, and scrimping isnt all that we can do.

    So if someone has something to say/share his personal investment philosophies and how he is managing his investment portfolios, for want of better passing time, we should hear him out. Even if, with the rich getting richer and newbies getting hungrier and more ruthless in accumulating wealth, it’s like the proverbial praying mandis trying to stop the chariot with its arms…..

  2. Would like to attend (subject to availability on the date and time to be advised). Hope to be better informed on how to invest for retirement.

  3. Yes, would be interested to attend this also. Do keep us posted of the date and time (and location?). Thanks.

  4. Yes, i would like to attend. Though i don’t see how we can help the economy turn around, but we can be there to comfort each other, as i’m sure almost everyone has got some investments that is affected by the downturn in the economy. Perhaps we can combine this session with some other light activity, like a walk on the beach, qigong, etc? Just an idea, ok?

  6. Hi Terence!

    Please register me in for these talks as I would like to learn more about them.

    Thank You

  7. “……..almost everyone has got some investments that is affected by the downturn in the economy. Perhaps we can combine this session with some other light activity….a walk on the beach…”.

    Sure, Lydia, you carry the lantern, Sengh carries the torchlight and I will uproot the lamp-post for the beach walk which means that Scorebot isnt the best venue for the talk unless you like to be seen carrying your lantern swaggering up ophir road, through the viaduct then along ECP before reaching the beach…………

  8. Yes, we live in dangerous times!

    This morning’s news on AIG has hit closer home… hundreds, if not thousands of policyholders of AIA would be having to make a decision on their policies. And all of them face some loss: whether it be on early surrender, investment loss in linked-funds, reduced payouts, loss of insurance cover… In the worst case scenario: total suspension of any payouts or claims… but you have to continue paying premiums to keep your policy and cover in force!

    I am especially concerned with CPF annuities which in Singapore are with our local insurers. What if the company goes bust? Will the gahmen step in? So the amount we put in annuities (now the minimum sum is S$105,000) to get a measly S$500 monthly when we’re 62+ will be tied to the health and life of the private insurance company. This scenario which I dreaded because it has happened in the US has now become a reality in Singapore!

    What about banks? Singapore banks, like Singapore insurance companies, cannot fail…. ? The credit insurance that we have is a maximum of S$20,000 with a single bank account. This means that if a bank fails, our account/s is only protected up to S$20,000. Does this mean that we should go and open different accounts with different banks and keep only up to a total of S$20,000 with each of them?

    The experts are WRONG! And only the CEOs have got it right! Only those in the top jobs rake in the spoils… retired AIG CEO, Greenberg became a billionaire before he was forced out of office. It seems that the top job is only to figure out how to boost the figures (earnings) by hook or by crook, pump up the share price… and cash out the options and bonuses they receive on performance.

    Now, what have the AIA agents and financial planners have to say? Or, for that matter, the thousands of agents and financial planners out there?

    Can they guarantee 100% (yes, it must be 100%) that our money is safe with them? And that we will get paid and that we will get the yield/return promised?

    Yes, we live in dangerous times!

  9. Hi everybody,

    Plse feel comfortable to share your views and comments on the financial crisis that is sweeping through Asia. Take the cue from Kenneth Tan.

    Terence Seah

  10. So Kenneth,
    For some of us that hv insurance/investment link related policies with AIA Spore, we wait or surrender har? Doe I heard frm News last nite that AIA Spore is ok as far as MAS is concerned, rite? But still prefer to hear from other parties as well. Thanks.. Dolly

  12. Hi Terence

    I am extremely concern about this crisis. Please reserve a seat for me once the date is set.

    Thanks
    Rene

  13. When the world monetary system collapse, you can kill the CEO of your bank. Your house can keep you sheltered but will not keep you alive. Your paper money and gold cannot be eaten. Your car cannot move without petrol.

    But …everyone will be equal.

    Come to me, I’ll give you tapioca leaves to eat. What would you give me in exchange?

  14. Can we eat tapioca leaves? Only heard of sweet potato leaves being eaten.

    An AIA agent told me AIA ins funds is sep from AIG, so no worries. BT said the same. Fed Govt is into the rescue and AIG will not be allowed to collapse. How comfortable we are with these assurance?

    Abt those ins/inv link related policies, gathered that the portion (or % or amt) that is tied to ins is safe. But what abt those invt in the various funds/trust units which are non-related to inv link? Can someone pl enlighten?

  15. Sengh, yr makjiu tiow teng huh? What “take the cue from Kenneth”?. He doesnt play pool or billiard so in his hand is a chopstick he normally uses to pick his teeth – he’ll give that to you in exchange for a seat to this talk which will be hot, not least when many hv lost their savings for the tong tong chiang..

    The MAS has set some pretty prudent financial ratios for our local banks to comply with. Unless their exposure is huge, the impact wont be catastrophic but will still be painful, no less. We dont have the answer bcos they arent telling yet but we do know that they have bought from these now bellied-up big boys their gilt-edge self-packaged products then rated as AAA and super safe.

    For those of us who are more sophisticated and therefore have that bit more to indulge in private banking with foreign banks/brokerages managing their wealth, they may now be the ones crying out loudest. Haha, sometimes not being rich is bliss, at least you dont hv money for people to lose for you.

    Sometime ago, I touted the idea of dropping the US as the prime mover of the world economy, and look elsewhere…China, India, Middle East, with emerging markets like Mexico & Brazil pumping up as well. I dont like to say it but the too many years of the US leading and powering the gobal economy, sadly, may have inebriated them with this sense of complacnecy, that they are smarter, know better and can do no wrong. The hubris before misery of the Americans?

    Thankfully, in SHC, our activities are not affected. Gals continue to kick their legs high while the guys bend lower and lower doing the limbo rock at gatherings. Mahjong marches on, cycling doesnt hit the side-netting, walkists still walk & kiss the soothing breeze and Steven is not in 6s or 7s but gamely hosts his makan sutra in the tavern.

  17. Haha, where is my cue?

    Sengh, please turn around, yes in that position. look at yourself in the mirror. To take my cue, that someone will have to pull it out from inside you…………and yr sense of loss/deprivation will be worse than any financial loss, heeeehe.

  18. Hi Tian Soo and Annto,
    Tapioca leaves are quite toxic.The leaves are strongly cyanogenertic, making them unsafe for consumption. In fact the ubi kayu (tuber) contains cyanogenetic and may be acutely poisonous if eaten uncookd. Studies in Africa have shown that a steady diet of tapioca (ubi kayu) may inhibit uptake of iodine by the thyroid gland. This can cause endemic goitre. Please beware and stick to sweet potatoe and porridge (Hanchu boey).
    Cheers,
    Philip

  19. When you buy the raw tapioca, soak it in a bucket of water overnight to rid it of the toxic sap; then it’s safe for cooking. Cheers.

  20. Hi Annto #14

    Young Tapioca leaves makes good vegetables. Malays eat them frequently. I eat them too…maybe that is why I am growing old now.

    When we are hungry we can eat paper money but now they make them with plastic. When the world financial meltdown happen, you will find Tapioca leave a luxury. I will keep the tapioca for myself.

    All Funds, Unit Trust, Insurance and Bank monies are invested in other Funds, Trust, Insurance and Banks. Some are in shares of companies that produce goods and services. Some are invested in contracts for purchase of commodities. They deal in papers call Financial Instruments.

    All these financial institutions and units, have to earn more money than they have taken from you in order to pay you and make a profit. And this is after they and their family lives well.

    The people in finance industry wears tie and get driven in luxury cars, the people who produces goods and services wears work cloths and take buses. A large proportion of the price of our goods and services goes to these people.

    The people who wears tie makes their money buying papers that will have higher value in future. The value of these papers depend very much on faith.

    The papers they deal with have value in so far as utimately a consumer will pay for the goods or services. Problem starts when the ultimate consumer as in the case of American houseowners cannot pay.

    It is precarious that large part of world economy operates in papers and depend on faith.

    If you have Unit Trust and Funds make sure the issuers are large corporation which their government cannot afford to let it close.

  21. “Young Tapioca leaves…….Malays eat them frequently. I eat them too…maybe that is why I am growing old now”. Heee, TS, my butty Mohd Ali has a daughter who is a SHCian but that’s not the problem…the problem is, she is very fierce and brandishes a cleaver and a chopper in her hands…….

    Seriously, I am all ears to yr take on the current financial turmoil. Greed and laziness go about like twins. The financial market is a big gambling den……..you trade on numbers, you move the numbers according to what you call are market shaking news…a President’s sneeze indicates that he may be sick, that he will die from his sickness and so there’ll be a change of leadership, hence, change in economic, monetary policies and so the market reacts. Billions made, billions lost.

    As if the brouhaha isnt maddening enough, chartists, analysts came to be born. They add a new dimension to the art (or is it artful) of trading. Bulls and bears are too tame for the market; copulate the bull & bear, and hey presto ! we have a new breed called Cow Bear Cow Bull, and this is the state we are all in today when the monster charges at us.

    When men go insane, apes wont sit by to watch. So it’ll come the day when apes shall rule over men……………….and women. And then it will be the apes’ turn trading in the stockmarkets and we climbing trees…………

  22. Hi

    Hmmm. There seems to be more talk on tapioca leaves than the Greenback.

    There are listeners galore, but where are the speakers? Hope to hear from the astute investors amongst us.

    Meanwhile, let me check if my Khong Guan biscuit tin is still under the bed.

    Joy

  23. Hi guys!

    I only meant to provoke some thought about the current financial mess that the US and the many financial institutions (banks and insurance) are creating for us.

    We certainly have to take another look at our finances and investments. Can we depend on insurance agents or financial planners (as they like to call themselves now) to advise us?

    Today, DBS have communicated with their many private banking customers about one of their “investment” products High Notes 5 which comprise eight financial giants like Lehman and Merrill. The bad news is that every investor stands to lose something and, may lose everything! If private banking customers have no chance (of getting their money back), what do we small fry have?

    Any holding of unit trusts or investment-linked products would be subject to a serious loss if they have a position in one of these “subprime” companies. The problem with unit trusts is that they are not transparent… you just don’t know what is their exact position. So they’ll tell you to hold for the long term, while they try to liquidate (unwind) their positions, juggle the redemptions (withdrawals) coming in, keep up appearances.

    Yes, Tim Ah Long and Tian Soo, you are both so right… but what are the common folk to do?

    So we wait for the experts among us… the “speakers” as Joy refers to.

    Meanwhile, I am digging my back garden plot to plant some sweet potatoes and tapioca…

  25. Terence – better expedite in organising the date of this talk…looks like lots of people waiting to attend (no matter how busy, must squeeze in time to attend also).

    Better not write too much……….later that Tim Liu might disect my words and make me sound like something else. The last time on MJ forum he made me sound like “old chicken from Geylang”!

  26. Here is my recommendation for all you rich people worrying about you money. I have no money and quite happy to eat Tapioca, so talk is easy.

    Your money What to do
    in

    CPF Just don’t die before you can enjoy it.

    Home

  27. Here is my recommendation for all you rich people worrying about you money. I have no money and quite happy to eat Tapioca, so talk is easy.

    Your money What to do
    in

    CPF Just don’t die before you can enjoy it.

    Home

  30. Here is my recommandation for all you rich people worrying about your money. I have none and quite happy to eat Tapioca, so talk is easy.

    If your money is in

    CPF – Don’t die before you get to enjoy it.
    HOME – Continue to enjoy your stay.
    CASH – Keep in Singapore bank even if they don’t give you interest.
    SHARES – Keep and buy more.
    INSURANCE – Keep preying and hope your insurer don’t close down.
    FUND/UNIT TRUST – They are no fun anymore. Get out.
    BUSINESS – Prepare to earn less.
    FOREIGN CURRENCY – Stay with countries with commodities.

    Most Singaporeans will find your money mostly in CPF and Home, so keep on cycling or line dancing, it is just another ‘crisis’ for rich people.

    Just hope America don’t attack Iran.

    I will be waiting for experts to differ.

  31. Kenneth #23
    My personal experience is that you need to take active control. Not a great thing when you are working. Not gr8 too when u r retired & rather do other things but doable. Unfortunately, most advisors (bankers, ins, etc) have lots of clients take care of, so unless u r big client, priority is low so u’ll need to take an active part in the mgt of yr portfolio.
    AIA prob wont be allowed to collapse. Like Fannie bailouts, too disruptive to US economy -> voter impact. However, policy payouts will be affected. Lower credit ratings means that their expenses will be up -> lower ROI. But this is my personal take. If you have lots of AIA policies, you need to weigh yr risks. Most of my family’s policies are AIA. Despite this glitch, still believe ins has a pl in financial/retirement planning.
    Most govt, Spore included, care what will impact their mass voters. the $20k guarantee takes care of majority not super rich. You can try spreading yr money over several banks. Each bank will have $20k guarantee so over 7 banks you can protect $140k.
    Everything in financial investment goes in cycles. I’m majority cash @ moment (In hindsight, I should have taken more off the table), so bank collapse & $20k guarantee is something I’m concerned with. The only thing you can do is monitor the health (bal sheet, etc) of yr bank & bailout yr funds if u think they r in trouble.
    Last thing that I am doing. I have exited any funds managed by AIG (mine was Acorns of Asia). Also, exiting funds managed by those who might be affected by Lehman collapse (exited my AB fund. Still checking if other funds affected)

  32. I should add that AB is a unit of AXA & AXA holds 7.25% of Lehman.
    Just saw the bankcrupty filing: mostly US & Jap banks

  33. Carol-S, dont worry lah, you hv got class and style…those geylang chabors are crass and stilted unless one is wont of mistaking a clap as a slap, or worse, a crab.

    During 1 of our drink sesions months ago, I was drunk and shared with ah Sengh that if everybody gambles 24/7 for easy money and nobody rears pigs & grwoing vege in the backyard and raises kids in the front court, it’ll come a day when farmers will be the richest folks (financially & spiritually) on earth, selling 1 charsiew pao for USD30,000 and a kg of cabbage for at least Renminbi 100,000. Their kids will be happy, well-mannered kids with a lot of time spent with their parents.

    Haha, maybe I wasnt so drunk afterall.

    Btw, I dont see much of LT Wong lately. He was into derivatives, derided as 1 of the few devils which caused this crash. Heee, ah Wong, you won or lost?

  34. Isn’t it better to hold for unit trusts, as a middle-long term investment? When is the talk? Like to attend.

    Looks like more biggies will fall…like dominoes. Scary. Time for re-think on what we invest in…not just economics eh?

  35. I was hoping to be able to have this session conducted asap. However, due to my schedule, I am not able to do so.

    Meantime, as this topic is a nationwide if not global concern, I would suggest we do all discussions on this forum first.

    No right or wrong; but I still like to ask for your viewpoints. A good number of us hold unit trusts, either using cash or CPF. I also guess many of us have seen its value drop 30 – 50%. Is it better to hold for the longer term, sell off now or buy more?

    As for me, I am pretty optimistic as this is opportunity. I am pretty inclined to buy more Asian funds now.

    TimL, where is the cue?

    Terence Seah

  36. I am certainly no expert and am a tyro in this field.

    However just came off a meeting with a Malaysian Banker and he expects this downturn mess to drag for another 6 months.
    Perhaps one should consider re-entering the market 4-5 months later in case his forecast is off target slightly.With IR coming in last quarter 2009 the upturn will come but not as strong as predicted.There are signs of slowdown in Macau casinos with Sands Macau putting on hold their phase 2 extension plans.

    With his track record KT Wong should be one of the better SHC advisors as he predicted this meltdown months ago pre- Olympics and mentioned post -Olympics that something will happen.I did mention this forecast to another SHC member over lunch.

    Predictions are only opinions as experts (don’t I know it in soccer)themselves do get it wrong as well so Caveat Emptor clause applies.

    I have no exposure to the market so hope this bit of information does help as it from the inside track.Anybody needs a loan ? Can connect you with these bankers.I’ve heard of 30/70 ratios being bandied about during my discussions with them on property financing projects.In the meantime keep your holdings in Singapore Dollars.

  37. Sengh, you ask me where is the cue? It is where it was but you cant see it unless you do what I say.

    Stand with yr back facing a full size mirror. Bend forward and look back between yr legs and the happy you will see where the cue is, stretching horizontally from you to the mirror…………..

    I dont think this is the time to buy. Watch what the winners – Oei HL, W Buffett, for example – do. Dont do what Patrick-K does. Hee, so what gives me the gumption to make Patrick out to be so sorry an investor?

    See, we prick our ears to listen to the big boys like A Greenspan, B Bernake.but the elated him comes charging to tell us that he met “a Msian Banker” and this clairvoyant banker tells him the crisis will last 6 mths. Seems like other than with mares, he has little luck with men.

    Do you know that many bankers are out of a job today……and you want us to listen to a banker? Heee, better go bang a gal from the Bang Bang Gang.

    You like to tell us “inside track” but what I see really is the inside tract of yr large intestines, and that means a huge load of shit……….heee.

    KT? I hope he is well.

    Folks, I dont think anybody within SHC is any wiser than the other to say where the market is heading and how long this holocaust will last. If there’s a talk, I foresee it as a time for us to vent it out where everyone should be talking. If it doesnt achieve much at least it serves as an opportunity to let off steam. And to take a peek at where tim’s cue is, provided Sengh attends.

  38. As vivien ler Says: ”
    September 18th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
    Isn’t it better to hold for unit trusts, as a middle-long term investment? When is the talk? Like to attend.

    Looks like more biggies will fall…like dominoes. Scary. Time for re-think on what we invest in…not just economics eh?”

    My advice is to read Simon Sim’s “Joseph Cycle” and what is happening is unfolding like a story book. So it is better to hold on to hard cash and wait till the big depression is over, which he predicted start from after Beijing olympics and will not be over till 2009 or a couple of years later. It is based on the 7 year good harvest followed by 7 years of poor/bad harvest of ancient Egyptian times. So better not to put all your eggs in one basket but stagger your investment and timings if you want to.. just a point of view. Cheers

  39. Aiya, how to safe guard our “investments” are on nearly everyone’s mind .. but I think it’s a situation of a cat chasing after it’s own tail bcos no single plan can suit all. Whoever comes out of it intact/better-off at the end is the “RIGHT” plan or strategy….but countless had died before reaching “The End”.

    Perhaps, we should look at how to remove that small little outstanding mortage or instalments or loans/debts that we are still serving FIRST. Next, tabled out our daily/monthly expenses and with a butcher knife, cuts away all remaining meat and just leave (live??) with “bare-bones”…. That way, all our “investment” naturally become affortable to loose or are “extra cash” and we have no fear/worry to risk it for once in a life-time gain from this crisis……by betting in/on ???INDEXES??GoLD??Silver??Oil??Wheat??Pork-Bellys??Euro/Dollars/Equity etc.

    Hope the above is food for thot ….. outside the box.

  40. Not an expert either, but agree with andrew #31 that you have to take active control of your own investments. This way you not only pay less in terms of costs, but can also time your purchases and sales. One interesting point to note (read and heard) is that after the US election this November, something drastic may happen to the market. So, for those with guts, get your cheque book ready to buy cheap cheap.

    Looking at what is happening in the financial market now, many who have invested in so called investment policies with banks and/or insurance companies indeed have a lot to worry cos they are locked in for specified periods before money is earned. However for long-term investments, buying unit trusts may be a good option. Just buy and keep, ignoring the going-ons of day-to-day happenings to the economy. The day will come when the hen will lay golden eggs :)

  41. Hi Wong KT,

    Why so SILENT nowadays?

    Care to comment on the Global financial
    Crisis.

    The Wall Street Journal reports today that many investors are still “shaky” although AIG has been rescued.

    If insurance is not safe, what else is safe?

    And pity those who invested in DBS Bank High Notes may get wipe off their savings of $50 000 or more becos Lehman Brother files for bankruptcy act II.

  42. Hi juliana,

    ….The day will come when the hen will lay golden eggs ?

    What makes you so sure that it will lay golden eggs???
    what happens if the chicken decide to do likewise,
    lay “rotten eggs” instead. Ha! Ha!

  44. Hi Terence,

    I am still in Ho Chi Minh City but will be back tomorrow night. I have been trying to follow the news here from HCMC and can only see a lot of panic and price volatility.

    I agree that this topic is now generating more interest but disagree that any talk by any ‘expert’ will calm the waters. The fact is that the US financial instititutions do not want to disclose their balance sheet liabilities.

    When the sub-prime loans first hit the news here in Sgp, the estimates for the required recapitalisation grew from USD150B to USD 200B and is now USD500B (worldwide).
    the best example recently here is that Lehman Bros in HK were allowed to issue over 10 minibonds in Sgp, from late last year to just over 1 or 2 months ago. Now we realise the counterparty was Lehmans themselves and over S$2.5B? was lost?

    This topic cannot be discussed over the forum. It will be difficult trying to do this over a discussion even. Many would have relevant questions, some just want to have their say, and others just want to add something. On top of it the topic is wide and all-emcompssing.

    You have to suggest a date suitable to all, and expect to chair the discussion in case the discussion goes astray, with a view to understand how this mess arose and how we can try to respond.

    Take heart that all of us are in the same boat, both Sgpns, Thais, and even the Americans. Like I said, the world is ‘flat’,as a consequence of globalisation and the inter-linked nature of global finance.

    Just my opinion that I would not be so ready to pour some more cash into any unit trusts. Read Tian Soo’s post on fund managers carefully. My opinion cannot be posted here as it borders on the slanderous.

    Cheers then.

  45. When I was kiddo, a millionaire sounded damned big. Then over the years, we see and read of many billionaires. With this financial melt-down, people are collectively throwing trillions around and soon we will only be contented if we marry our daughters to trillionaires, best if they carry no airs.

    My daughter asked me last nite, Dydda (she calls me that), where does the Central bank get these hundreds of billions to rescue the banks? “Print lor and make the mint work harder………”. I am not joking, just think, where do they keep the money in good times to be made available in bad times?

  46. This is a bold tongue in cheek crazy suggestion.Want to table it for further discussion?

    Want to have a horse racing club where members can invest in audit standards environment and invest in Horseracing similar to a property R.E.I.T.My record on the forum and my 7naps website speaks for itself.My win strike rate is above 40% and win /place rate above 70%.

    Just as an introductory teaser I will just show you how as a test example for tonight’s races at Kranji.Daniel Chan is consistently making money through my advice.Even on last Wednesday’s HKG races I gave him the winner and the 2nd horse for a $8 forecast on investment of $2.Did not post in forum so not counted on my R.O.I.

    My investment for this test would be to bet 100 tickets forecast on R7 on 13 and 11 at $2 per ticket and quartet on 13-11/13-11/Field/Field at $264.

    The market favourite is 11 who has a 50% chance of winning but I am tipping the 3rd favourite nbr 13.Nbr 8 will be the likely 2nd favourite.For the purpose of this test I am not recommending a bet on win/place which I will do so on my advisory column.Even Tim ,though a sceptic, cannot refute the success rate for the time being.

  47. Hi Patrick #45,

    Did you accidentally or intentionally stroll into this Post?

    I refer to you comment “This is a bold tongue in cheek crazy suggestion.Want to table it for further discussion? Want to have a horse racing club where members can invest in audit standards environment and invest in Horseracing similar to a property R.E.I.T.?”

    You are entering into an area of gambling which will lead to the removal of your membership.
    Plse be informed.

    Terence Seah

  48. Sorie butty, I have to stand with Sengh in his remarks @ #46.

    Granted you had made it very clear that your #45 is a tongue-in-cheek crazy suggestion, a teaser if I may add, it might still draw in those who have lost money in these times and may be tempted to seize any chance to recoup. Yr suggestion can therefore be the harbinger of doom.

    Also, horse racing outside of the turf club and its authorised outlets is illegal. So, if yr suggestions is not dismissed as a crazy t-i-c but taken seriosuly, and you too become serious to organise this club, it will be no differnt from coffee shop bookies. If this happens, SHC qill not be given the respect we have all earned for ourselves, worst, be tracked by the GSB.

    So, if you really want to develop yr hobby further, better for you to ask those interested to contact you directly, not forgetting however yr cardinal responsibility to ensure that these folks are not people in despair………

  49. Ref #47 Terence Seah #48 Tim Liu,
    Don’t worry Guys, I do value my membership so I’ll stick to theoretical tipping in Horse racing advisory in Forum.Watch out for my post.

    Had another advice from stockbroker friend and was painted a darker picture …this downturn will be for an estimated period of 3 years.His advice Cash is King so tread carefully.Some people are re-entering the market now on assumptions there are bargains to be picked but he reckons there is more downside to come before there is an upturn.Who am I to give advice in this field but take this
    statements as a cautionary feedback and use it as you see fit.If you like it use it…if you don’t then throw it in the dustbin.

    My best advice follow people like KT Wong(everbody is wise after the event but KT warned me about this meltdown before the Olympics that signs were already there) and perhaps Charles Chua(sometimes there are off days but as long good days are more and you are living proof of overall success than it does not matter what people think).These people digest and monitor data everyday similar to my research in horse racing and to a lesser extent soccer.Laymen like us just watch the News and read the Newspapers.

    However the tip I had on Sands putting on hold their expansion plans(partly due to travel restrictions on Chinese citizens) is correct so use it as you see fit.

  50. Hi Tim #48

    “If this happens, SHC qill not be given the respect we have all earned for ourselves, worst, be tracked by the GSB”

    sori uh my england not so good. what is qill and GSB?

  51. Sorie, typo lah…….”will” and “gambling suppression branch” lor……..

    Patrick-K, you’re a good chap and we all want to love you………..

  54. Terence

    Tommorrow and in the near future it may go down but keep it for over 5 years and when you retire, you can own a farm like me….. if you want.

  55. Terence

    Julie Yeo and I would like to attend this valuable sharing session of retirement investments.

    Regards
    Helen

  56. Thanks, Ronald Wie, for the suggestion on reading Simon Lim’s Joseph Cycle. Indeed, history bears this out.

    Minibonds by Lehman Brothers: anyone knows what will happen? Sad, I do have some of these. Sigh. A lesson learnt – don’t be coerced into buying because wanna get rid of the agent. Yep, bought into some more unit trusts that have good fundamentals (took your advice, Tian Soo).

  57. If a bank “collapses”, i.e gone bankrupt……..do we still have to pay back the loans we have borrowed, e.g. housing loan.

  58. Dan=C, you have asked a very interesting question’

    In Spore; a bank is not incorporated as a company and is not regulated by ACRA or under it’s purview. It is licensed by rge MAS but I supposed in the event of its bankruptcy, its assets & liabilities will still be adminsyered by the Official Assignee………I cant say for sure tho.

  59. Dan Chan @ #57,

    If a bank collapses or goes bankrupt, be assured that all the assets of the bank, including all loans will be followed up and repaid. If not the Administrator of the bank will sue you for payment and if you do not pay you mortgage, your house will be repossessed, sold and the difference recoverable from you. If you still do not pay, you will be bankrupted also. No free lunch here.

  60. Thanks Charles….i m a layman in this financial stuff…the bilions and trillions are nothing but stars to me – interesting to read for pleasure though.

    The bank issue however is something most of us cannot ignore, like it or not. So another question, if u don’t mind.

    If I have 100K in deposits or other products with the bank.
    At the same time I have a 200K outstanding loan with them.

    If the bank goes bust, does it mean I only get back a fraction of my 100K, if any; but I have to honour my loan
    in full?

    Is there such a thing as “asset-liability” offset with the individuals. Just curious. Thanks again.

  61. Reference – Home page 7 of the S.T. today.

    Lehman CEO got a pay of US$34.4 MILLION last year
    5 of the top executives got a combination of US$81M.

    Lehman was US$613 BILLION in debt.

    Capitalism at its WORST, or BEST; depending on where you stand. No wonder getting an MBA or at least a business degree from an US university is so much treasured.

  62. Hi Tian Soo at #13
    Can I be first on your list to till the soil for you in exchange for food, be it tapioca or sweet potato leaves or the tubers themselves?

    Hi Terence, I’m interested on the topic too, please do not leave me out.

  63. Hi Daniel @61,

    Yes, that is an interesting question. Firstly there is no “asset-liability” offset like between individuals, even tho’ it would be the most fair treatment.

    Treatment of the debts due to and from the bankrupted bank will be regulated by the Bankruptcy Act. The Administrator takes over and will attempt to recover all debts and loans due TO the bank. All receipts from this source will be pooled and payment made in accordance with the debt rankings. This means the ‘pooled’ monies will be used to pay all debts due FROM the bank. But there is a debt ranking in that some forms of debt will rank first, ie will be paid first, some second etc and some last. Eg all TAXES due to the govt will be paid FIRST, THEN all CPF monies due for the bank employees, Then the Administrators’ costs, (which is not small), then the employees salaries, then all PREFERRED debt (NOT the same as preference shares), then all normal debts. Then all preference shares, and the last being the common shareholders.
    The Bankruptcy Act actually has a listing of the different classes but I cannot recall the exact list. The above is a summary of the different principled classes. Even then I could be wrong if the Administrators’ costs rank in priority to CPF payments or after, but they do rank very highly.

    Your fixed deposit, creditor’s bills etc would be lumped together under ‘normal’ debt.
    The unfortunate conclusion is therefore that your FDs will not be paid unless there is enough money in the remaining pool. Ie you will have to pay your debts to the bank first, like everybody else, and then line up to collect the what the bank owes you. You can say they have a free lunch at your expense.

    A corollary is that there will be insurance for your losses limited to S$20k or S$25k, (Can’t remember) for every single FD unpaid. So if your FD is 100k the insurance pays you 20k or 25k. If you have 3FDs of 10k, 30k and 100k, the insurance will pay you 10k, 20 or 25k, and another 20 or 25k. Get it?
    Cheers, and I hope you and others never have to find these out the hard way.

  65. Hi

    I agree with Ronald Wie that it is better to hold on to hard cash and wait till the big depression is over.

    I volunteerily put in a large sum into CPF 5 years ago, last year my Financial Planner advised me to take up an Annuity Plan but has yet to decide whether to take up the plan. Any input?

    But of course the amount of money that I have dumped in CPF Board, it will be split into 3 different accounts namely Special Acc, Ordinary Acc and the Medisave Acc in which there is an interest gain of 4% and 2.5% for the Special & Ordinary acc.

    How about the SGD Equity-linked Structured Deposit? Are they safe? Input from anyone? I have a few investments.

    As for the Life Policies with the AIA or AIG, I still feel that the policyholders should have the wait and see attitude,am sure MAS is working out solutions to help the situation.

    Never put all your eggs in one basket.

    Thanks Terence for posting this meaningful forum for all of us to learn how to manage our retirement investment.

  66. Hi Terence,

    Are we looking for alternative venue to hold these talks inorder to accommodate more people?

    I have a contact working with NHG College which is in Toa Payoh, 5 minutes walk from Braddell MRT Stn; one of the rooms can accommodate 50-60 pax. We can try writing to them officially to use the place for free or at a nominal amount.

    If you are interested, please contact me at pristine6699@hotmail.com

    Warmest regards,
    Patsy

  67. Hi Patsy @66,

    I would like to suggest using Scorebot in Bali Lane if possible. Reason being SHcns already know the place, there is a monitor which can be linked to a computer and a audio system for the speaker.

    For myself, since I am thinking of addressing questions from the floor for half the time, the group should not be too large, otherwise presumably the questions will be too many to handle.

    The reason I have chosen to leave half the time for questions is that in this way I believe I can address the issues/problems facing us and thereby have better communication among all.

    So why don’t we choose the easiest place to arrange, ie the Scorebot? Those who feel the content is too easy or bored can always go downstairs for a drink. Surely a win-win, no?

  68. Hi Nancy T @ 65,

    I wish I had listened to R Wie too and kept my assets in cash till now. I would be much better off, despite the low interest rates.

    The question as always is, if anyone had done so, is it still better to continue to keep cash now still? If not, till when? Which period should we continue to hold cash, 3 mos?, 6 mos?, 1 year?, 2 years? 3 years and 6 mos? How much of our cash should be released for equities, now? And if we answered those questions, what shares shall we buy? Blue chips? banks? ship-builders? properties? medical? etc.

    About CPF, I know nothing about CPF, so I won’t make a fool of myself here.

    Equity linked notes (ELNs). Essentially these are fixed deposits, enhanced with an option. This simply means the bank pays you a FD interest rate of say 0.8%pa on your fd, say 25k, or whatever, for say 1 mo. Then they agree with you, the owner of the FD, that if OCBC Bk shares falls 5% or more on a date, 1 mo later, say on Oct 22/08, you have to use your FD money to buy OCBC shares at the agreed price of 95% of today’s price, (the strike price). If you agree, eg if you think that OCBC shares at a 5% discount is a bargain price, they will be able to write an option whereby they can sell this option to other market players. Eg an fund managre wants to sell his OCBC shares but he has 20 mill OCBC shares and he wnts to hedge his position by buying ‘insurance’. Ie he pays the option fee to protect his OCBC shrs. He has the right to sell his OCBC shrs at a 5% discount when the shars collapse on Oct 22/08. These ‘fees’ for writing/selling the option will be used by the bank to pay you your additional interests on your ELN, AFTER the bank/issuer deducts his commission for selling you the ELN.

    If the market stays flat, you would have made additional interests, the bank would have made additional commission and the fund manager would sleep better because of the insurance he ‘bought’.
    If the market tanked, you would be have used your FD money to buy OCBC share at a 5% disct, but the market price would probably be lower, so you would have ‘lost’.
    If the market went up and OCBC shars went up, you wld have yr addl intt, the bank wld have their addl commission, and the fund mgr wld have made ‘less’ on his OCBC shrs because he paid you the ‘fee’. Comprendo?

    As a rule, if your ELN is never struck, or converted to shrs, you wld have ‘made’ and anytime your ELN is converted to shrs, you wld have ‘lost’. Comprendo si?

    In a bull market, if you kept making ELNs, the strike price will be progressively higher, your ELNs will never be struck and your intt income will be much better than any ordinary FD intt. But if you had known it was a bull mkt and just boought OCBC shrs, your gain on the OCBC price appreciation will be many times more than your intt income from ELNs.

    In a bear mkt, yr ELN will be converted and the price detrioration will be greater than holding your cash in FDs.

    Therefore, you shd only buy ELNs when you think the mkt will be FLAT, so that you can continue to roll-over your ELNs when they mature. Comprendo?

    ELNs are similar to the ‘currency linked assets’ which Eleanor spoke about in Scorebot. Just change the OCBC shrs to another currency, say NZ$, use the fx rate for S$/NZ$ for spot and discount it by the asme 5% for 1 mo etc and ELN=CLN.

    I type too slowly or I can tell you some tricks the banks use in ELNs which resulted in the China Aviation Oil ‘basket of ELNs’ some years ago.
    Good night.

  69. #63 – THANKS Charles, particularly this:

    “The unfortunate conclusion is therefore that your FDs will not be paid unless there is enough money in the remaining pool. Ie you will have to pay your debts to the bank first, like everybody else, and then line up to collect the what the bank owes you. You can say they have a free lunch at your expense.”

    Ultimately, it depends very much on the how the Govt, through the regulatory authority, protect poor chaps like us.

    For discussion, why did the US Govt allow Lehman to fall?

  70. Hahaha!

    As Daniel has said at #69 and Charles had put in his long and interesting discourse at #68:

    The simple and straight answer is: We, the innocent and gullible majority get nothing, nada! After all the debts and obligations to first party interests, there will be nothing left for us! Now do we go begging to our gahmen to help us out?

  71. “……..why did the US Govt allow Lehman to fall?”. Why not? Doesnt it pronounce like “lemon” and we know what a lemon is………………

    Btw, some among us are hit and, out of exasperation, many things re said. In fairness, the authorities have to watch over what’s said and written lest panic is caused. They might haul up a few for spreading rumours and punish them to deter others. So while we are entitled to vent our frustrations esp when we have done no wrong, put our money in what has been an “approved” investment but lost money, we need to be factually correct and accurate……….

  72. Hi Dan C @ 69,
    “For discussion, why did the US Govt allow Lehman to fall?”

    The short answer is why not? They shld be allowed to fail. This is the capitalist system. There are many individuals and long-standing coys which were allowed to fall. Remember Barings? 100+ yr old fin’l instn killed by a drunkard trader called Leeson?

    There are legions of capitalist coys allowed to fail and fall. Caveat Emptor is the rule. Our resident lawyer has warned me about defamation rules here so I won’t give my 2 cts on my opinion on why Lehman. I would add that the fear of legal threats, given their history in Sgp has prevented many discussions from going ahead, thereby leading to a very uninformed, unsophisticated and uneducated populace. For this we jave to thank our leaders and the lawyers.

  73. I wished this forum is sammyboy where there’s no taboo, no holds-barred. But this is SHC which without seeking fame, has gotten fame. It’s therefore read by many including persons who hold a full-time job to ensure peace and order.

    We dont need to be kind or diplomatic when there’s a need to be brash but not at the expense of being honest. We can tease and laugh at the system, its shortcomings but there must be an accurate basis for it. We dont need to muzzle ourselves but when we bark or snort, we have to stand on the side of reason and fairplay.

    Yes, tim ah liu has mellowed……………..

  74. Hi Charles Chua,

    Thanks you so much for your input about investment.

    Some of my friends were saying that its time to invest in currencies e.g. US dollars, I am not sure about this, so have no intention of any dealings.

    Thanks once again

  76. Hi Nancy and all,

    Before you all start investing and listening to advice, you need to know what kind of an investor are you, for the short term or the long term and how much holding power you have and risks you are willing to take.
    Strategies are different for both type of investors, and the time that you are prepared to hold.
    As I advice earlier, the cycle is on downtrend, though there can large fluctuations in the short cycle which will only benefit those who knows how to ride these short cycles.
    If you are a long time investor it is better to stagger your investment for know and not commit more than 10% to 15% of your funds at each period of downtrend cause no one knows where the bottom is. Right now even insurance funds like AIG has collapsed, something that if it is not worrying investors, there must something wrong with our warning bells.
    With the US government doing the unprecedented, printing 100 billions at each bailout, it will be a matter of time a currency crisis will be triggered around the world, it is a wonder it has not. Just sharing my view, as the EUR has also weaken against the US when it should be the other way around, so who knows what is boiling and is going to happen now?

  77. Hi Nancy,

    T3B, is like one of the many other Share trading System that is promoted by another company that claims to work in an uptrend or downtrend sideway movement market. For such a course you will have pay about 3K for 2 days weekend course, but no guarantee are given. Cheers

  78. The next discussion on “Managing our retirement investments” will be held on Mon 29 Sep 2008 at 18 Bali Lane.

    Time:
    1900 – 1945 hrs – Meeting fellow SHCians with interests in discussion with others, retirement investment issues.
    1945 hrs – Please be seated on the upper floor.
    2000 – 2130 hrs – Charles Chua will share with us how he manages his retirement investments.

    Entrance: By registration only. Strictly for SHC members only. No charge.
    For those unable to attend, please log into star-conference.com to hear the discussions live.

    Terence Seah

  79. Hi Patsy #66,

    We can make use of the NHG college in Toa Payoh. Can you assist to find out if large screen projection, PC connection and wireless internet connection are available. The preference is pax flexibility and pay for F&B on an individual basis.

    Terence Seah

  81. Hi to all at SHC,
    Hi #75 NMT, T3B is one of the many investment courses that use charts and indicators to predict the market. Its quite costly and success is very very subjective. Most often indicators are lagging and therefore is accurate only after the event is over. Besides TA and FA, you need to be updated on current news and be aware of what the big boys are doing which is an unpredictable element because they can move the market either way.
    SHCians are used to playing long positions, meaning buy first then sell later. However, market dynamics has changed and especially in a bear market most of us would have lost money if we stick with only buy then sell action. There is a need for us to learn shorting techniques.
    We need to know how to execute both the long and short sides in today’s market.
    Current market voilatility is actually an opportunity to make money, ie if you know how.
    Perhaps we can discuss further when we meet.
    Regards
    Roger

  82. Hi to all interested in this post,

    This is a correction of my post # 63. In particular the following paragraph:

    “A corollary is that there will be insurance for your losses limited to S$20k or S$25k, (Can’t remember) for every single FD unpaid. So if your FD is 100k the insurance pays you 20k or 25k. If you have 3FDs of 10k, 30k and 100k, the insurance will pay you 10k, 20 or 25k, and another 20 or 25k.”

    There was a letter to the Editor of the S Times (Sept 22). The writer said that insurance for FDs of busted banks “are limited to 20k, in total, across all a/cs…”.

    I should think the writer of the letter is correct and that my memory is faulty, (not surprising). Ie even if you have 3 FDs in your name, of varying amounts, the total that can be paid by the insurance will only be limited to 20k (not 20k OR 25k) per name. So if you want to avail yourself of this free protection, split up your FDs to 20k maximum and spread it around your spouse and/or your children’s names.

    Interestingly if you have a FD in M’sia, the corresponding insurance is for M$50k per FD, with no limit as to the no of FDs you can have. But note, don’t take my words as gospel truth, check it out yourself. I only know this because the bank clerk told me to split my Fds to 50k maximum for this reason. She could well be wrong. FYI the interest rate is 3+% but you take the fx risk on M$ vs S$. That may be a – or a +. Take your pick.

    That being the case, what can Ken T or Terence S tell us about FD insurance on THB FDs and their corresponding interest rates?. Don’t bother with V’nam or Phil or Laos. Not worth your time.

    Good luck with your investments.

  83. Headlines in BT on Banks giving poor advice:

    ASIAN retail investors who bought structured products linked to the collapsed USinvestment bank Lehman Brothers are complaining about poor advice from banks and have urged authorities to save them from losses.

    Investors in Hong Kong, Singapore and Indonesia have over the past week been outraged that the bond-like products they purchased were actually complex derivatives and they stood to lose most or all of what they had invested.

    The products include Lehman-linked minibonds sold in Hong Kong and Singapore, many of which offered modest returns of between 4 and 6 per cent, and DBS Group’s High Notes 5 series, which offered around 5 per cent and were linked to eight securities including Lehman bonds.
    Fyi – email me if you want the full report or get BT.

  85. Hi Charles

    It was flattering that you’d consider me to be knowledgeable about Thai deposits/FDs… but I do not know about their position on FD insurance.

    Anyway, foreign currency deposits have a major risk: that of exchange rate. If you have US deposits (which are insured up to US$100,000 per account), you may earn 4 to 5% pa but you may lose on the exchange rate as the greenback is on a downward trend.

    What I’m next very afraid of is the decline of our dollar… that is: Will the Singapore dollar be able to hold its value? Is our CASH safe?

    By the way, I noticed that my name was included in the list of attendees for the Monday 29 Sept meeting: Well, I can’t make it, so please give my seat to somebody else.

    I think it was J. Rogers who said: “I’m more interested in the return OF my money than in the return ON my money”. Something very appropriate in today’s financial environment.

    And something by James Madison almost two hundred years ago: “The circulation of confidence is better than the circulation of money”.

  88. Some of you have expressed interest to attend the sessions on “Managing our retirement investments”. Unfortunately, for some reasons, cannot come. In view of this interest area, we will continue having new topics and other SHCians to host this events, until such a time as the financial world is more stable, and we are all able to realise a small pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, for use until 90.

    For those who are at home or in the office and cannot come, you are welcome to join us on SHC Online, using http://www.star-conference.com. Simply put in your real name, and on your speakers. You will be able to listen to us LIVE.

    If you are not sure if it works on your computer, try running a test, one day before the event. Please do not call me on the day of the event. Have fun.

    Terence Seah

  89. Hi Kenneth,

    I think you are a practical person when it comes to investments and philosophy. At least, you dont cut and paste. Can I ask you to host the next event? If you say yes, I shall call you to agree on a date, and all other logistics will be organised for you. How about that?

    Offer is also open to those who are willing to share their experience.

    Meantime, have a great week ahead. I am off to Kerala in Sputh India, the land of coconut trees, backwaters, rice fields, barges and toddy. Uupps.

    Terence Seah

  90. “……At least, you dont cut and paste..” ah Sengh, in SHC I am the king of cut & paste, as I am doing here again. Knn, what’s wrong with that? It makes me a impractical person totally devoid of philosophy?

    Seriously, the silence of KT is deafening. In a situation like this, he usually has more to talk than Patrick-K has talked in his life. He was deep in derivatives and that makes it even more worrisome………………..

  92. Hi Terence @#79,

    Ideally, we should go for “free” use of the place if you can convince and persuade the management that all their “potential” clients are here in SHC.

    I believe the basic media equipment should be available in a lecture room.

    Will take this off line with you.

    Warmest Regards,
    patsy

  93. Hi Terence & CharlesC,
    Please register Eleanor Chan and myself for this talk/discussion.
    Thank you & rgds…………..Jie

  96. Hi to all again,

    This is another correction on the application of insurance of FDs in a busted bank in Sgp.

    Today’s STimes carried a reply from the PRO of MAS about the treatment of insurance for FDs if the bank is bankrupted. The 20k limit is calculated for ALL a/cs, current, savings and FDs in ONE name for ONE financial instn, which includes finance coys. So please remember that when you start an a/c with any bank.

    Hi Ken T @ 85,

    To be insured on any FD, your money must be placed onshore in the resident country. So if you want to avail of that US$100k cover, your money must be placed with a US bank in USA. If you placed it off-shore, like a US$FD in HK or Sgp or anywhere else, say with HSBC, DBS or NAB, there is no cover. Again my memory might be incorrect but the principle should be right.

    FYI the expected US debt for USA for 2009 is now about US$12T. Divided by the current population of 250M, say that works out to a per capita debt of US$48k. This is for every infant, child, retiree, citizens and PRs. If there is a collapse of the US monetary system, don’t be surprised if the PRs leave, leaving only the US citizens, say 220m to ‘hold the baby’. This brings it to US$55k per capita. If that is ever possible to be repaid, it should take them, conservatively 4 or 5 years to repay the debt. Add to it interest payments, add another year. Add to it the shoddy state of the US infrastructure. Add in the cost of the Iraq war, which some analysts are saying are not in the deficit computation, you see a horrendous state of the US. One way out is to sell their assets to foreigners, but with a deteriorating economy it might be easier said than done. So my opinion is clear, stay out of US denominated assets, period.

    Last year the M’sian Central Bk shorted the USD and made over $5B in 1 year. Their reasoning was simple, they were still a net oil producer and therefore a net USD generator. They did not need nor wanted US$. In fact they were asking OPEC to price the international oil markets in Saudi dirhams. That would have made a big dent in the US$ demand as a trade reserve currency. While they have not succeeded, Kuwait, Vietnam and maybe Brunei have publicly stated they will drop the US$ from their basket of trade currencies. Other countries have not publicly stated this same aim but may have started to do so discreetly. Today the CB governor has said she wants to depeg from the US$. IMHO, she deserves a medal.

    About J Rogers statement, a good principle is to look carefully at the downside and the upside will take care if itself. Benjamin Graham, W Buffet’s mentor, said over 80 yrs ago, there must be a safety margin whenever you are buying stocks to look after your downside. Also remember, you must have a Plan B in case your Plan A fails. They all say the same thing. That is appropriate in every investment decision, not just in exceptional circumstances.

    About J Madison’s comment. I don’t know who he is but he must be an American. As confidence is a big characteristic in the US psyche. I don’t agree but for Behavioural Economics, I suppose I can agree. Look at the mess they are in, not just now but for how long the problem has been festering, confidence is not the solution. Living within their means is the solution, but they have no discipline now.

    About your question on how safe is the S$? The answer lies in ‘when is the S$ not safe’. Aside from that I am not going to discuss it.
    Cheers and good luck in your travels and your investments.

  97. Hi Terence,

    Just so we agree, I am not going to share with anyone my personal investment story nor am I going to talk about how I am managing my investment portfolio.
    Firstly I doubt if anyone is interested and secondly I am sitting on a lot of losses now, so that would be a negative example.

    But there are enough stories, examples of how I think one should invest, myself included, given the circumstances we are in. Not everyone is a fund manager, or we should all starve, but I believe we can find an approach that will still work and make our money work.

    I believe I have enough material to fill out the time and I also believe that to connect with the participants, there must be communication, ie the subject matter must be relevant and meaningful and sensible to the shc’s profiles.

    I am not talking about how to grow your savings to one which will feed your family for 2 generations, that would be too risky given our age profile, and while we are slogging it out, only the 2nd generation will enjoy it. Not very sensible, is it?

    I hope not to waste our members’ time and yours too.
    Cheers

  101. Mr T Seah,

    Firstly, may I ask why you want to change my surname leh? Now, you have two Ivy Low(s) and it becomes very confusing, ya?

    Secondly, I prefer to attend the talk in person. Tried your star-conference the last time but I was not able to listen to the questions from other SHC members – connection is very important, Charles Chua said…hehehe…better fly in to support him.

    See you soon.

  102. Hi Ivy,

    You now confused me. Did I spell your last name correctly. I have always used Ivy Low. And, yes there is another Ivy Low. See you sometime.

    Now, I did make a mistake. Shall change it to “Ivy Low”. sorry.

    Terence Seah

  103. Hi Terence

    The 40 places for this talk is filling up fast.
    I am not able to be there on the 29th. Please give my place to others.

  104. Hi Charles #97,

    No disagreement. You are the host, and we definitely look forward to hearing from you. Thank you for the effort to put this event up. And, I shall be there too.

    Terence Seah

  105. Hi Ivy Low(HK) @101,

    Wah, you flying in to support me, ah? Tor jie (x3)
    Now you give me pressure, must go and write up my talk now otherwise kena scolding.

    How to start eh? “Dear Prez, Founder, Chairman, Honoured guest from overseas, distinguished colleagues, Ladeez…..”
    Very pressured man.

    Don’t ask difficult questions knoe. Betta do homework now.

  107. Hi Terence Seah, Charles Chua,

    Pleae include me in this series of talk on “how to manage our retirement investments.

    Thanks

    Bernie

  108. Charles @ 105,

    Some pressure at times are good for your metobolisim and thinking cells. Don’t worry too much, treat it like an open discussion and of course, with your professional input. I’ll be a good pupil.

    It is a pity Tian Soo is withdrawing his attendance…he must be running out of tapioca leaves.

  109. Hi Roger,

    Thanks for your time and information about T3B, I have better understanding about it now.

    Have a great week ahead!

  110. Hi Terrence,
    Thanks for registering me. (Actually, I hadnt realised this until this AM. I’m still wondering what the best way to nav our site. Is there a way to know by email when we’re registed; ie expected @ an event?) I’ll c u monday.

    Charles #96
    I would agree that US economy & hence US$ is a bad investment. However, my personal experience is that a lot of global investments are denominated (or underlying currency) is US$. There arent so many Euro investments, etc. Do you have any ideas how to get around this problem? I tried ‘hedging’ by investing in things like commodities but it hasnt worked so well.

    Kenneth #85
    I agree with Charles. S$ will remain pretty strong -> currently safe haven status (like Swiss). This said, S$ perf going forward (like all currencies) will depend on relative strength of Spore economy (easiest to use GDP) vis a vis say Thailand. But in my case, it’s a moot point. Since I intend to stay in Spore, my expenses with be S$ denominated. So I measure all my investment perf back to S$

    Charles #68
    I think the mini-bonds etc issued by Lehman are also considered ELN; ie I believe ELN is structured product. so there is an additional risk: The issuer going bust (rare but not imposs as recent events have shown). Also, I dont think that such ‘deposits’ enjoy MAS deposit guarantee. Nancy, more returns usually equal higher risks. One of the best risk/reward investments is CPF; particularly SA.

  111. Hi Charles, Andrew and all SHC investors!

    Everyday now we get bad and dismal news: Terrorist bombs, food scares, sabre-rattling by Russia and North Korea, and, worse, our global financial mess-up!

    Yes, Charles #96 you’re right. Foreign accounts must be opened in their resident country to enjoy the insurance protection. I should have said that US accounts (opened in the US) are covered by a US$100,000 deposit insurance.

    It’s easier to get to Malaysia or Thailand to open an account… but…

    Andrew #110 You can invest directly in the country/Euro equity markets with the many foreign brokers/banks now registered in Singapore. I have a US discount broker which I use for US equities but this is now optional with so many alternatives available. I use the account to trade non-US companies (like BHP Australia) and also buy ETFs for gold and silver (hedging?). I dabble a bit in safer options but not very actively.

    And here, Terence #89: I am not qualified to make any kind of presentation or take the rostrum for an investment discussion. Travel to Thailand, maybe…

  114. Patrick-K, going to town now and shd be done by 5.30 p.m., wanna me to buy you beer, coke as I poke you with jokes………….pls note my weekday hor………for that matter, whoever is in town this early evening can also msg me and I’ll buy the drinks too…………..scooting off now.

  115. Terence
    Would appreciate it if you could include me for this investment talks. BTW where is 18 Bali Lane. I’m a new member and blur. Thanks.

  116. Hi Terence,

    Pls count me out as I have attend another training session. Do keep me updated on this matter, can? Maybe, conduct another session or collect some reading materials for me, pls.

    thk u
    susan tan

  117. As per # 115, also new member, found the location of Bali Lane in the Street Directory. However, want to know where to park the car. Lousy in parallel parking……..all these side lanes usually offer only parallel parking, so is Raffles Hospital the best place for parking (per entry after 5.00 pm).

  118. Hi Peggy W @ 115 and Caroline S @117,

    Nearest MRT is Bugis Junction. You can park at the carparks in Raffles Hosp, opposite Bugis Junction or Golden Landmark Hotel.

    Cheers

  119. Caroline-S, most women are lousy with parallel parking but few are as brave as you to admit. Nice that you hv also checked Bali Lane’s vicinity to find Raffles Hospital nearby which means the good you hv done some remedial work for these other motorists at risk.

    How apt that the talk will be on risk management?

  121. Hi Charles
    What happens if there is a depression in the States? What are the implications and how will it affect us? Can you pls touch on this briefly on Monday evening? Thanks.

  122. Morning Andrew #120, quite scary to think that the STI will sink below 2000 levels. Looks like we have to bring a heavy-duty hole puncher to the talk as well….for punching that much needed few more extra holes on our belts ….. hope we do not need to “tighten our belts” that much … I am already down to bare-bones….and more tough times ahead.

  123. October 19, 1987, dow jones crashed, nikkei plummeted and I fell from the motorbike holidaying in phuket with my 1st-w, had my right toe ripped off.

    Fast-forward, October 19, 2008. Another financial doomsday in the reckoning, if it has not already arrived.

    Some months ago, in an exchange here with KT, the cynical me went a lot further to think that the US wont just be going thru what was then a still debatable recession, but a depression. That wasnt quite welcomed as a holistic view from the pessimistic me but………………..

    The fat-cat theory is real and has come alive. Over the years, this fat-cat has eaten too much, has become lazy, enjoys its life by cleverly structuring, packaging and selling products which they hv found enough cronies to laud and rate as AAA and so the bubble is allowed to grow and grow. But this same fat-cat is unlikely to live thru the blood-letting; their kittens will. And also the fools who have fed the fat-cat not so much out of kindness than out of greed………..

    The king is dead, long live the king. Soon enough, somewhere, sometime another fat-cat comes to be born. And another generation of fools come a-rushing to whet the fat-cat’s appetitie…………………

  124. Tku v.much Caroline Sit and Charles Chua for the directions. Appreciate it. At least hv an idea vicinity of Bali Lane. Good point to check it out on the St Dir. Will park at the hosp since its per entry. No lah! Dont agree and dont think so that women are lousy in parallel parking. Its just practice & you be fine. Cheers, see you all on Monday.

  126. Hi Andrew @ 111,

    The Lehman Bros mini-bonds are not ELNs since there is no underlying shares to convert to when the option is struck. Even if there were, the equities would not have gone to Nil in the time frame.

    There are some guesses about how the mini-bonds were structured, including one by Sivanithy, a BT reporter but I am still unclear about them. Perhaps Eleanor can put shed some light here.

    Structured depos do not have the sdic insurance. Only FDs, savings and current a/cs do. Eleanor pointed me to the sdic website. (www.sdic.org.sg). It answers all FAQs about deposit insurance in Sgp.

    Your remark about your experience in hedging your portfolio thru’ commodities is interesting. Can you please share it with us here or in the Mon discussion? I have not tried buying any of the myriad commodities available to hedge but am interested in knowing why they have not worked. I am sure many other participants are interested to know of your experience too.

    Hi Daisy Y @121,

    Many people will disagree with your use of the term ‘depression’ in the US. They are not, technically in recession, so depression is still way off. But you may be right. Who knows? The key thing is to keep abreast of the info coming out and not pre-empt the event. Mnay years ago I learnt not to think too long into the future. Most coys have budgets, re-budgets, and revised versions before they even reach the 1st Jan. Along the way they will re-revise their budgets again, adding the actuals to the remaining budget periods. Soon by Oct. say, you will have more budget revisions than there are months in a year and nobody remembers even the initial figs for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or later budgets. It is all a paper shuffling exercise to show that some work is done, but the THINKING is largely forgotten? Do you agree? Does it sound familiar?

    So I try not to fall into the trap of looking to far ahead and focus on what seems tenable or sustainable. Unfortunately with all the debt, individual, institutional and even country debt the USA is having, they have a ling struggle ahead. So let’s see how determined they are to resolve their problems. Cutting out driving their SUVs is not enough. They have to sell their assets, increase their taxes, reduce waste (not necessarilly consumption) to start. But this seems to unacceptable to the common Joe, so let’s see.
    Of course, we in Sgp will suffer also when the US slows down, (don’t worry about other countries, just focus on good old Sgp), THAT IS INEVITABLE. the 64k question is how to meander thru’ the coming mess. Trust me, nobody knows the answer, they only think they do, but that’s just their opinion.
    Just think, when the Savings and Loan coys, LTCM, Enron fell, did Sgpns suffer? Not really, the problem was contained in the US, even tho’ they did have a slowdown. PART of the current fear and problem is that the US funds are selling their shares here to remit funds for redemtion and in anticipation of further redemption. This selling is indiscrimate. But really I feel, even with the expected slowdown from a slowing US economy, our coys are better equipped and have a healthier balance sheet than the US coys. But more of this later. GTG

    Cheers

  128. Hi Terence & CharlesC,
    Sorry for the inconvenience, but Eleanor Chan, Grace Wong and myself…LH Jie are unable to attend this talk, much as we would like to.
    Thanks and regards………..Jie

  129. Hi Terence and Charles

    It would be a struggle for me to get there on time. Please take my name out from #9.

    My sincere apologies for the last minute notice.

    Have a pleasant Sunday!

    Joy

  130. Hi all SHC investors!

    The Bali convention has come and gone… and I’m sure that many participants took away many valuable advice and tips from the speakers and those who shared their views.

    But what about those who didn’t get to attend? Can we get a short summary of the points discussed and especially the important suggestions made?

    I would certainly like to know what we can do to protect our assets, money in the banks, insurance funds, CPF, etc. Where is the safest place to park our money besides putting it under our pillow?

    What should we do if we have liquidated our insurance and our bank “guaranteed” funds? Where do we put this money?

    Haha! Charles, your job is not over… can you help the rest of us, please?

  131. After the STI hit 3,831 points on Oct 11 2007 the “experts” were out in force predicting how it would close for 2008. A local fund house came up with 4,000 points and the Singapore office of a huge US bank proffered 3,900. In line with the declining trend they have now revised their numbers drastically and in the opposite direction. So all those people who have pumped in money when the air was filled with euphoria would now be feeling remorseful and nursing a huge dent in his side. Now they are saying the index will dip below 2,000. It closed last Friday at 2,411. Your guess will be as good as the experts’.

    What do we do now? A million $ question indeed! To me this is a good time to seize opportunities. Sure, the market can move further south. So you would need to find out more about what you wish to get into. The IPOs of 2007 (which were over-priced then) and REITs are attractive candidates. And the battered blue-chips look yummy too.

    Amidst this turmoil, certain principles and maxims serve as my guidelines:

    1. Stay clear of OPM (other people’s money). Invest only with what you have and which you can afford to lose. Margin calls can be devastating. Two of my neighbours flew out of their balcony because of this.

    2. Holding power – do you have it?

    3. Don’t hope to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest ie don’t try to time the market. It’s almost impossible.

    4. Learn to do the opposite.

    5. After 3 days of selling, don’t sell and after 3 days of buying, don’t buy.

    6. Watch out for companies which carry out buy-backs. This activity usually signifies that the counter is under-valued.

    Haha, I need to issue a disclaimer: Be forewarned that I am expressing my views based on my own experience. In no way am I encouraging anyone to enter or leave the market. I must further admit that I wrote this while under antihistamine sedation. So if it sounds like yesterday’s garbage to you, it probably is!

    Good luck folks and enjoy what’s left of your Sunday.

    John Howe

  132. Hi Kenneth and John Howe,

    The markets will probably go up and down in the coming months. My view is one of opportunity, and a good time to pick some good buys. Obviously, one has to have some good holding power, and I support John Howe’ viewpoints too.

    The USD 700 billion has still not been approved, despite wide market expectation. Gee, we meet Monday. I wonder how markets will react, if the above package hits a stalement?

    Terence Seah

  133. Hi Kenneth T @130,

    What talking u about the “Bali Convention” Still do not understand.

    Hi John Howe @ 131,

    Thanks for your comments. Can see an experienced player there. I also remember the euphoria in Aug last year when we hit 3800, striking distance of 4000. What happened to all those analysts? I also like your point that anyone’s guess is as good as the so-called ‘experts’.

    But I must take exception to your bullishness about REITs and your comment to ‘do the opposite’.

    It’s good to be a contrarian and contrarians make the most money. But they do not just do the opposite of what the market does.

    Contrarians are able to discern the good when everyone is panicking and looking at falling from the cliff, and also are able to see the dangers when everyone is super-bullish.

    So it is important to keep your head balanced and know when there is fear and when there is overconfidence. This should remind us to to overlook the fear and/or confidence, but not the facts when we are evaluating a stock.

    The pattern for REITs prices is that they go up when they are first introduced and later plummet quite disastrously some years later. This pattern was discussed when the Australian market first introduced REITs. Let me try to explain with the Sgp example.

    During 2001, ’02 and ’03 (up till about April 03) the Stock market in Sgp was very ‘bad’ (I am sure you know what that means). We were recovering from the excesses of the dotcom era and prices were rocked down. The banks were selling at or even lower than their bk values, many property counters were selling at a 30/40 discount, some coys were selling at or even lower than their cash values. As if the WTC bombing in 9/11/01 was not enough, Bush followed up with the decision to invade Iraq in ’02. One year later when things were bottoming off and coming back to normal, we had the “SARS’ attack, here and in HK. All activity was curbed, frozen, travel restricted or discouraged, hotels earnings etc was down. The SGX and the property developers were looking at ways to improve the earnings of coys in Sgp. They couldn’t sell their commercial properties then. They then requested the govt to allow them to form and list REITs in the SGX. Briefly this would have meant that corporate taxes on such commercial property type coys would have been removed at the coy level. Any dividends paid to indivls would be taxable at the indivl level and attract a lower rate of tax. Earnings of such REITs would, ceteris paribus (all things being equal) be improved by the exclusion of taxes. The govt agreed because they would still have collected their taxes at the receiving corp level or at the receiving indivl level. IN ADDITION all depreciation charges were removed from REIT entities and replaced by a sinking fund provision to cater to repairs when the buildings age. Unfortunately sinking fund provisions are only in the fractions of a percent, while depreciation can be 2 to 3 percent of a building costs. This meant that the earnings of the same coy would have increased simply by vehicling them in a REIT as compared to a COY as before. This increase in earnings would have increased the capital values of the coy and REIT prices would have appreciated, which they did. Together with the increasing property prices for commercial and industrial properties later in ’05, ’06 and ’07, they have propelled REIT prices. Of course, the property coys ‘sold’ their builidings to the REITs, thereby reducing debt and improving their balance sheet.

    The setback for REITs will come when the buildings have to be renovated, repainted etc and the sinking fund provisions will be short, then the earnings will decline. These will take over a period of time as the REITs own many properties, of varying ages. But add to this the credit crunch and this will increase their funding costs. Add again the deterioration in all asset values, property included, and the downturn in the stk mkt, which will require all asset values to be discounted, (as in the case of a premium in a bull mkt), this will see the demise of the REIT and property counters.

    It is no ‘accident’ that the REIT and property counters fell EARLIER this year, before this carnage.

    Like what you cautioned, your guess will be as good as mine and others as to how REIT prices will fluctuate in the future. But they already have these ‘additional’ problems to deal with, come what may.

    As always this is only my unrequested 2 cts worth opinion, and I take the usual warranties, caution, and indemnification for any damage it may cause, now or ever, real or imagined, physiological or psychological, etc., etc……

    Cheers and good luck to us all.

  134. Hi Charles,

    I would not be able to comment on the minibond as it is a structured product, and I am not a structured-product specialist.

    The USD 700 bio bailout plan has to be passed. Otherwise, the whole financial system would collapse. If you have cash, keep it in short-term deposits and enjoy the higher yield (overnight USD traded to 7% high last week), caused by the credit crunch. Buy USD if you can stomach the swings. Almost all central banks are pumping in liquidity as reported in the papers. If banks are reluctant to lend USD to each other, there may come a time when they will have to go through forex to pick up USD.

    Just thinking aloud…….

  135. Hi Charles @ 133,

    Hey, thanks very much for elaborating on the REIT matter. After 2 continuous nights of partying with fellow SHC buddies, I just wasn’t in any condition to churn out what you did. So anyone who wants to consider investing in this particular asset class, please take heed.

    Hi Terence @ 132 and Eleanor @ 134,

    US$700bln bailout? Aiya, to me this is a non-issue. It’s just a political sideshow.

    Have a good week ahead!

  137. Hahaha!!

    Charles #133 I was talking about the Bali Lane meeting today… Monday 29th September. And, as usual, I got the dates mixed up thinking that the meeting was over.

    But, please, let those of us who are not able to attend have some gist of what went on. Maybe some advice (with disclaimers as John Howe has put). We will not hold you or any others responsible. My questions still remain.

    Have a great meet!

  138. Hi Terence & CharlesC,

    I am unable to attend this talk.

    As Kenneth @130 mentioned, hope we will get updated through this forum with a short summary of the points discussed.

    Thanks

  139. Hi CharlesC,

    I enjoy the evening talk last night on Managing retirement investments. Thank you for taking the time and effort to share with you your thoughts. In summary, you have given us something to think about, and that is the need to understand cycles and our risk appetite. Guess we did not give you enough time; but I must say the 1.5 hour sesion was valuable as it sets the pace for future similar events.

    And to the audience, the exchange was equally exciting. Cheers.

    Terence Seah

  140. Now to all our contributors on this subbject, Kenneth, JohnHowe, EleanorC, CharlesC, Florine, AndrewThio, TimL and TianSoo,

    I dont claim to have known the results of the USD700 billion vote last night, but now that the bailout plan has been rejected, the pace appears set for further financial institution collapses. The Asian financial crisis was painful; and many giants were forced to sell and allowed to collapse. Ten years later, Asia is now stronger. Perhaps, this is what the US and the financial insitutions have to go through. I wonder why IMF has been pretty quiet. Well, I guess we have to eat tapioca leaves for now; and ravish the tapioca roots next year.

    I have always been positive in times of such global instability. Better, get back to my new dating business now.

    Terence Seah

  141. Hi guys!

    I’ll be waiting for the short summary of the meeting and some pointers of how we can help ourselves thru this financial crisis. Anyone who can should contribute as the unfolding mess is definitely going to affect our pockets and even our retirement funds.

    Can I suggest that the more savvy SHCs put up their recommendations (not finanacial advice just opinions) on what to do with S$50,000.

    I would consider maybe the follwing:

    Put smaller amounts in different bank deposits, especially foreign-registered banks. The Singapore Deposit Insurance only insures up to S$20,000 per account name per bank.

    So put S$20,000 in an local bank Singapore dollar FD. Or if you don’t need the money, put the money into CPF Special Account where you’ll earn a decent return.

    Buy a Gold ETF with S$10,000. Why? Gold prices will rise as the rest of the markets fall.

    Buy a Silver ETF with S$10,000. Same reason as above.

    Buy an inverse ETF with S$10,000. Inverse ETFs are designed to perform counter to the index that they track. If you buy an inverse Financials ETF it will appreciate if financial companies’ stocks plunge. This acts like a hedge fund against your stock portfolio.

    So that’s my two cents worth…

  142. 2 saddening events occurred over the last 24 hours. We have lost the feisty, combative and tenancious JBJ. He had a vision and he lived a life of hope. The Maker wd have been fairer if he was given a last hurrah for parliament. He’ll be remembered, not so much as a legend but for his indomitable spirit.

    So after giving america and the world so much hope, the USD700 billion rescue plan fell through like a damp squid. Unless there comes another rescue plan – and it has to come very quickly – we’ll never know how bad can bad be as this financial tsunami unfolds.

    Florine-T warned of the next melt-down – credit card companies. If that happens, credit will be tightened even further resulting in more corporate failures which will not be the privilege of financial institutions only.

    Now, we have Kenneth-T dangling his $50k. Answer to “what to do with him” is easy. Get him to wash Sengh’s turbans while we take his princely – a princely sum in the current turmoil – $50k to buy into Sengh’s old folks dating joint and convert it into an escort club. Didnt we read of how much a top grade socialite can earn in a day’s work usually done at nite, and the fat commission to her arranger?

    Seriously, I do agree with Kenneth-T that gold is a good, defensive immediate investment. But for the longer term, farming will still be the preferred biz choice. Isnt it already in the grapevine that Tian Soo is going big with his farm projects and yes, he’s hiring………….bankers, financial analysts all from Wall Street.

  143. HERE lies a JBJ. WHEN comes such another?

    SOMEBODY UP THERE feels there is no reason for us to rejoice. Thus the market plunged.

  144. Charles
    Thanks a lot for sharing yesterday. I found it interesting that you limited yourself to one asset class because that’s what you felt you understood well. With hindsight, not being in so many asset classes might have saved me heartaches.
    I agree with your thoughts that understanding the risks of the instrument that we’re getting into is important. I’ll take to heart your example & be stricter about abiding my own rule of not investing in what I dont understand.

  145. Haha! Ah Liu, ah…

    I wash his turbans, you wash his dhotis! And we can do it in the Ganges!

    Seriously, the financial news is all bad today… and we can only look forward to this ray of blight… Ah Liu!

  146. Hi Terence and Tim Liu,

    I was told that after the talk Tim said he would offer S$1000/- if I can arrange a company visit.

    As you know the talk was interrupted by Tim who insisted that I was lying when I said I visited coys which I was interested in.

    I was not happy with his remark, but avoided a direct confrontation due to the shortage of time.

    Subsequent to that, when I went back, Tim made this challenge behind my back. I am not happy when remarks are made behind my back and I insist he repeat the same challenge on the same terms.

    Frankly i am tired of his lewd remarks and and his asinine attitude. What makes me angry is for him to make challenges behind my back when I am not around.

    In my earlier posting on the talk, before the 29th Sept, I had alluded to the possibility of some participants trying to raise some questions or remarks that would have thrown the talk off course, some to show off, others because they have an axe to grind. I said there should be a chairman to moderate the talk and questions. You did not reply to the point and I kept quiet about it, putting my hopes on the maturity of the SHC members. FYI Tim Liu was not even registered as a participant. And Terence chose to sit among the audience.

    Of course when Tim made his remark, there was no chairperson to correct him. Personally I was disappointed that such a remark was made with no objection from you or the floor.

    Now I am waiting for Tim’s reply to see if he chooses to hide behind his cowardly remarks.

  147. Charles-C, I thought it was proper for you to hold court without interruptiuon (and I said so) when you shared your personal trading experience where there was no right or wrong.

    However, when you told us that you could call up a listed company for an appintment to see the Chief Executive or a senior executive for information not available/released to the public, I had to challenge you and asked in front of you and not at your back which are these companies and what did they tell you? Your answer was a naughty “I dont answer those questions”.

    By that, if you have yourself concluded that i therefore saw you as a liar, that’s a logical conclusion which I wont argue against.

    Yes, I did throw a challenge to any one individual who can obtain market-moving information from a listed company through a private appointment which are not released to the general public at large, I am prepared to lose to this person $1,000. You too can take up this challenge but not just to “arrange a company visit” as you have clearly stated up there. I can be stupid with money but not so stupid as to throw away $.

    And, perhaps for a start, you might want to answer my 2 questions which you refused to answer at the talk. But if you choose to answer them behind my back, I am ok with that.

    Finally, for the benefit of all, I asked you to tell us your credentials which are always made known to the audience so as to assess how much value to place on the speaker’s sermon. Again, your crisp “I dont have to answer that” rang. But sadly, it rang hollow.

    Frankly, you did share with us something interesting and you should have expnded on that. And why was I there? I had promised to buy Sengh a drink 3 months ago………..

  148. Tim Liu,
    I said I visit coys in which I am invested. No price sensitive info is allowed. But there are other questions that may be asked, eg clarification of some assets, philosophy, strategy etc. Not all info is released to the public. The coys only have periodic reporting and the annual reports. That is why some clarification is required. Obviously you know nothing about public listed coys, despite working in one, after all these years. So don’t put words which were never mentioned.

    I can see so far, how accomplished you are in adding words, after the fact and in twisting your replies.

    When you asked me to name some of the coys which I visited, i mentioned Isetan as an example as I was then talking about Isetan. If I had continued to illustrate with other coys, I also would have said the same for those other coys.

    I did not say, “I dont answer those questions”. That is another lie by you.

    Your challenge, behind my back was to arrange for a coy visit, not for market-moving info as you now word it. Market-moving info cannot be disseminated to individuals, only to the public, for obvious reasons. It is also a reflection of your crooked mind that you only want to pay your measly $1000 for market-moving info. Many people have higher standards and honour than you and your measly $1000.

    I have never said that I could arrange for market-moving info to be disclosed, when I visit a coy.

    You have deliberately twisted it around as you know it is a criminal offence to do it. I must say, you get more disgusting by the minute.

    As for my credentials, I believe when people know me better, they know my credentials. I am not one to boast about it. Certainly I don’t have to answer that. I made it quite clear before, I am not going to talk about my personal investment history. I don’t have to show to anyone my record or ability in investing. If you don’t understand, which you obviously don’t, then you have not got what it takes to invest. If my comments make sense, as some know they do, by the requests on this and other postings, then the experienced investor knows one when he sees it.

    You have the audacity to reply to Daniel Chan in #58 “In Spore; a bank is not incorporated as a company and is not regulated by ACRA or under it’s purview.” What utter rubbish are you spewing, “a bank in Singapore is not incorporated as a coy????” Are you sure you are a qualified lawyer? I was kind then not to embarrass you then but now have to show you for the fraud that you are.

    I am not here to boast, get a following, be one up, or even to be recognised as a successful investor. I don’t need any of this.

    The wonderful thing is I have the option of choosing my friends, and you are not on the list.

    Just stick to the facts in your reply. Thank you.

  149. Tim Liu,

    Oh Yes, I forgot about this point. You said “And why was I there? I had promised to buy Sengh a drink 3 months ago………..”

    After the talk, there were 4 of us having a drink. At no time did you come in to offer a drink to Terence. When I left with Terence, after about 45 mins to 1 hour after the talk, we met you outside Scorebot where you chatted with terence. At no time again did you mention anything about buying Terence a drink. Are we to believe that you did not meet with Terence these last 3 months where you would have occasion to buy him a drink? You don’t have to answer that. We have enough of your lies to cover your other lies.

    Like I said, just stick to the facts in your reply.

  150. Charles Chua

    “No price sensitive info is allowed”. So you have now admitted. And you want to meet up with the CEO to talk about “philosophy” (read as “talk cock”).

    Come off it, will they tell you more on assets and strategy beyond what’s already known in the market? Kidding us again? But I do recognise that Charles Chua does have this uncanny old charm to get treated with pop corns and philosophy.

    The verdict as to whether or not you did say, “I dont answer those questions” i.e. my 2 questions, is with the audience. Yr credibility is at stake, not mine.

    My challenge was to arrange for a coy visit? Be real, Charlie brown-all-over-by-now, I aint you, I find it absurd to visit companies to talk philosophy and ask for pop corns.

    Folks attended the talk with one common desire : to hear what you had to say abt investment, more importantly how to make money from the stock market. Yes, I will pay what you call measly $1000 for market-moving info. But if you cd only arrange for a listed company Chairman to be entertained by yr philosophy, I’ll still feed you with even more measly peanuts and a banana. Deal?

    You do get more disgusting by the minute and woe betides those who are with you, but that’s not my problem.

    If you dont have any credentials to tell then what’s there for you to boast about? You “dont want to talk about you personal investment history, yr record, yr ability” but you want us to believe you? You siao huh?

    Luckily, we dont have many Charles Chua around. Verily and yes, “the experienced investor knows one when he sees it”. They are laughing like hell after seeing Charles.

    Obviously, you dont know the difference btwn incorporation and registration of a company, and I wont teach you. Suffice to say that in the context of my reply to Daniel-C, I was referring to foreign banks which was then the talk of town.

    If a foreign bank closes down, depositors will seek redress from the MAS. Across the road, Charlie will march like Chaplin to ACRA and question why ACRA didnt regulate the bank properly. I wont embarrass him with the answer which is obvious to readers.

    Botched here and there and with so many boo-boos to yr credit, I do sympathise with yr own assessment that you wont “get a following, be one up, or even to be recognised as a successful investor”.

    “The wonderful thing is I have the option of choosing my friends, and you are not on the list.”. I had to wipe sweat off my forehead and say heng ah !

    Haha, I was already on a drink with another outside when you were huddled down, crest-fallen. If I were then to stop my drink, got in to buy Terence a drink, my biggest fear that you wd drop on yr knees and asked for one too wd hv come true…………….

  151. This comment is placed on behalf of Terence who is in some part of the world now but without internet access.

    Hi Tim,

    I have no doubt on your experience with the workings of listed companies. We know that their executives cannot release more information than what they have released to the public and the stock echange. I have also no doubt that Charles know full well these listed companies restrictions.

    The series on retirement investments was initiated, in view of the serious and current deterioration of retirement savings. I had personally invited Charles Chua to lead in the first of such discussions. He agreed, and I was pleased with the turnout and the questions and sharing among the gals and guys. I believe most of us in the audience knew full well that the discussions and comments offered were individual and more for sharing. And for most part of the session, the evening went well.

    I have to complement Charles for taking questions, altho I don’t claim it was an easy task. I too was keen to hear what he and everybody have to share on the topic.

    Tim, I don’t disagree with your line of question, if this is a public talk. However, this is a very private event, and I disagree with this treatment of fellow SHCians, even if it’s the principles you stand on. You are not new to me and many of us, and I know you are very supportive of SHC and its activities.

    I guess you will still disagree with my comment, but I hope you give some “Nam Jai” a thai phrase with no translation in English, to Charles and to the participating audience. And if you disagree, at least accept my viewpoint. I am 400 km north east of Bangkok, and I will definitely catch up with you next week. Meantime, go ahead and speak your views.

    CharlesC, please accept my apology for not having done a good job at moderating the evening session. Time was short, and I can only ask you not to be discouraged. You did a great job during the evening, and sharing with us the need to understand our personal risks before investing our retirement savings. I learnt a lot more about fellow SHCians with similar interests and concerns.

    I hope we can move on. There is so much to life among fellow SHCians.

    Terence Seah

  152. Thank you Yew Kwong for putting up Terence’s piece.

    No worry, Sengh (have to call you this again….it’s infectious), I have said my piuece and to say more will be regurgitation.

    I am off to a soccer match now, never kicked a ball for the last 26 years. Dont bet on the scoreline, you’ll be surprised.

  153. Hi Charles Chua,
    Are you aware that Simon Sim’s 7 year cycle claims 2008 as the peak year with STI at high of 4300??
    STI is now below 2100 or less than half his prediction with not many more months to go, your reference to his 7 year cycle theory is in doubt.
    Did Joseph stored grain for 7 years only to announce famine on the 7th year??
    Your comments please.
    Roger

  154. Roger @ 153,

    Moral of the story is “professionals can get it so wrong”!

    To succeed, be a contrarian trader. Read news article in The Business Times on Oct 4-5 issue, page 8. Writer shares his view on where to invest your money in turbulent times like such.

    Tighten your seatbelt for a stormy ride ahead.
    Good luck!

  155. Looks like the STI will be digging below the 2000 levels soon ….. in the morning. For the Contrarian, you better have a strong heart ….. For the Traditional Investor, make sure you can endure the coming marathon run …. slow and steady …. dollar averaging or whatever and for the risk averse, stayed overweight in CASH; at least 70% of it!

    Just in case, the darts are flying my way ….. I am more a traditional investor ….. a few dollars every month regardless of cycles, storms, bubbles ……… when target reach, I will cash out and re-start the marathon again ………… per marathon usually 5 to 8 years. Sometimes the same routes, other times a completely new route… do your homework and cover your ears to filter out the noise….good luck!!!

  156. Don’t be too aggressive in going short ahead of upcoming weekend. We may see market consolidate or trade a touch higher in position squaring.

    Seems this week’s move was engineered ahead of G7 weekend meeting. Let’s hope the G7 communique can erase market fear and rebuild confidence again.

  157. Roger #153
    Think you missed the point; which was market moves in cycles – or what goes up must come down & vice versa. Some cycles are longer & some are shorter. Dont get fixated to the number

    Ivan #155
    If you’re >70% cash, you are one of the luckier & faresighted ones! I certainly regret not taking more money off the table earlier. At the momentum that the 2200 support was broken, it looks like citi’s call might be right: sti @ 1800 level (next year? earlier?).

    Eleanor #156
    difficult to short these days with the ban in place :)

  158. Andrew@157
    I think “shorting” the STI Index is not “ban” – Anyway, I have no stomach for shorting.
    Coming Monday, STI will be bloodied again. My take is that the G7 is unlikely to come to an agreement over the weekend. The German lady cannot see eye-to-eye with the French guy, the English guy already committed suicide, the Italian still consulting the Mafiaso and the Jap has their own ideas………too many factions/colours/currencies. This is just my honest opinion….please do not take my words for it!! Whoever is reading!!

  159. Iva @ 158
    True but it means that you either have to open SBL & borrow shares (not so many counters, btw) or you have to buy back the same day which takes good timing, guts, etc. Only works well on days like Mon where market dropped like a stone.

    I dont know whether they can come up with agreement but whatever is done, market will still go lower due to margin calls, etc. This may lead to one last scramble for the exit by retail after which things should calm. Due to my stint doing trading for myself, I no longer believe in bottom fishing. However, I have started to read up on companies to identify ones that I might be interested in.

  160. Hey Andrew, if you identify any companies that looks interesting, do share it with us here.
    Note: I have no intention to invest in these but hope that those SHCians with experiences can use it as an excerise to tear the datas apart and see what we can find/highlight.
    It’s good learning curve too for those following this thread. I am very sure many SHCians out there are keen to know how the “read” these “creative” Financial Reports/Statements.

  161. Sorry, Andrew:
    I think “shorting” the STI Index is not “ban” => I meant via way of STI Futures Contracts…..

  162. Hi Eleanor, Ivan and Andrew,
    Thanks for your replies, its good to know that we have SHCians who have sufficient market and trading experiences to share.
    Analysts calls are the cause of many market player’s woes. Take Ferrochina. Most analyst’s reports were positive on Ferro up till their trading halt and then we got this shock announcement from Ferro that they have insufficient money for working capital and unable to pay their billion yuen loans. Its going to be a melt down when Ferro resumes trading. Investors get hurt and analysts got away.
    I am just teasing Charles with my comment.
    He had no intention to share with us his experience and got angry with the audience (post #146 blaming us for not standing up for him). The floor (audience) were very patient and respectful in enduring his discourse on a way way out Joseph’s 7 year cycle predicting STI at 4300 in 2008, PEs which is a subjective tool and an outdated Isetan example (Besides Charles, I wonder who uses financial statements >12months old to pick stocks to invest).
    Charles was given the honour that night, he could have turned that night into an audience participation forum/discussion.
    Ivan #158
    Shorting the market is not allowed and the penalties ar heavy. SGX has made it a permanent rule until such time they wish to review.
    Besides SBL and intra-day shrts, you can also try CFDs and put warrants.
    Ivan #160
    If you are into day trading, SGX is an interesting counter you can consider.
    If you keep overnite or for contra, you may want to consider Singtel.
    Market dynamics has changed. Those who buy and hold may end up with regrets.
    Hope we can have a small group meet for genuine sharing.
    Roger

  163. Hi all,

    I think with all investments luck comes into play also no matter how educated in investing you can be. Just heard a couple in the banking/investment business lost about 600K when they picked what was a pretty good company based on the company’s report and from reviews from reputed sources. So there is a need to be cautious too and not to put all your eggs in one basket.
    Also from the Joseph cycle book’s do not be the last to be holding anything because if the market crashes no one is buying anything. Cheers

  164. Andrew #159
    As a joke, perhaps we shld pick a company which manufactures inks or papers used for printing all these currencies; USD, EURO, PDS and YEN. I am sure they will be making lots of doe printing BILLIONS in the next 6 to 9 mths period. Hahaha!

  165. Ivan #161
    You mean MSCI SG?
    Yeah, you can either long or short.
    However, it is not exactly corelated to STI because some of its components differ from STI and the weightage is also different. Generally, its quite a good guide for trending the STI because oftentimes it moves ahead of STI, especially if you play the “pre-open” matching.
    Next month (Nov 2008) you can legally short the market with SGX blessings when SGX launch the 35 days Extended Settlement Contracts (ES) which gives investors the option to long or short the listed counter. Look out for it.
    Roger

  166. Eleanor Chan #154
    “Tighten your seatbelt for a stormy ride ahead”, how true! Woke up this morning to the Closing Bell at CNBC….Wall Street down – below 9000pts. How’s Asian markets reacting today 10/10/2008? Profit-taking? Or scram?? Short-sell is out.
    If I still had my shares, I would have fainted. CASH IS KING is the motto for now, at least for a while.

  167. Hi Roger #162,

    I shall try to get another date, whereby we can share trading and investment discussions. Markets have been very volatile, so this cannot be better time. I shall call you this evening, to see if we can agree on a date and time.

    We can then have the second session of this series of discussions.

    Terence Seah

  168. Hi all,

    Just a consideration, if you had followed the concept not word by word or figure by figure in the book of Joseph’s Cycle, it meant to save and save not invest. Now if you look at the global situation you are already reaping the harvest, and more is to come, the Aus, NZ ,Uk currencies are already down from 30% to 15%. Who knows it may even go down further, so without even doing any investing the holidays, the homes you want now are much cheaper??
    Also know from first hand experience from another Korean couple how bad the situation is for them now the Korean currency is down and bad. That there are oustanding payments even on their Starhub bills, that somehow I got called into, how bad is it now? So is this the time to invest , when insurance giants are gone, banks are going bankrupt, or time to save and hold on to hard cash??
    Cheers

  169. Hahaha!!

    It is the time to travel! Now we can go to Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, even Europe, cheaper!

    Yes, It’s great to hold cash, but do we keep it in the banks or under our mattress? Either way, we still lose money.

    Joseph Cycle is an attempt to correlate financial cycles with the seven years of plenty and seven years of famine found in the Old Testament. Unfortunately it doesn’t pan out as the cycles are not as predictable. Bear markets last a lot longer than bull markets.

    There’s a book I’d love to read: The Shadow Money Lenders by Matthias Chang… maybe I’d buy it in JB next week. The writer has some interesting views of the current turmoil and behind the scenes manipulation.

    But there nothing like being able to hold a job in this current market situation. If you’re working, keep on working. Every dollar earned is critical to your long-term financial health. If you’re in a very specialist job (like my eye surgeon who can charge me more than what I can earn in a month), you’re indeed very fortunate.

    Keep your health, eat healthy and keep smiling!

  170. Roger #162 n #165:
    Please note; the last time I did any trading in equities or in the market was in 2003/2004 …. so I am a dinosuar and out of touch … only stuck to just unit trusts and am a very passive player.
    Ronald #168:
    Nobody knows what to do for sure. For me, being overweight in CASH was by default as I am currently out-of-a-job situation … it was not by been far-sighted as thot/opinioned by Andrew. As for your other queries at Career Transition Post; will sent you my email address shortly.
    Kenneth #169:
    You like to visit Ang-Moh countries? I am never used to Ang-Moh countries ….. yellow-skin always looked upon as second class in good times and in bad times too.

  172. Friends
    How will we be affected if the Sing dlr is depreciated what are some of the ways I can protect the value of the little I have? Thanks!

  173. Ivan #170

    No, I don’t have a penchant for visiting “ang moh” countries; It’s just that their currencies are now much cheaper for those who are intending to travel.

    My travel destinations nowadays are mainly to Asean countries, especially Thailand.

  174. Daisy #172
    Honestly and Realistically??? Nothing much you can do or rather should do! IMO, keeping SGD is most “valuable” and “safest” as it is. If you have no immediate plans to imigrate to another Developed country permanently or you do not need to buy/sell goods & services across borders……no need to be bothered or loose sleep over it.

    However, if your home currency is; for example: Indonesian rupian or the Myanmar Kyats, that’s a totally difference senario……

  175. Roger #162
    “If you are into day trading, SGX is an interesting counter you can consider.
    If you keep overnite or for contra, you may want to consider Singtel.”
    Why did you specifically single out these two counters for day trading and contra respectively?
    Because of high BETA and/or TA? please expand a bit for benefits of SHCians following this thread.

  176. Ivan #175
    Trading is highly complex and difficult to explain in this post.
    You are right that my suggestion was based on high Beta and TA. Price and volume is key to trading. However, there are other factors like corelation with key regional indices, corelation to news, individualistic preference, emotions and my observation of the big boy’s actions. Singtel is a sort of defensive play.
    The above is not exhausive, so please observe and maybe do some paper trading before you jump in.
    For those with experience in trading, pls use your acquired skills and decide if you agree with me.
    For those without appropriate experience, pls ignore my suggestion as its in reply to Ivan’s request.
    Medium and long term investors have different perspectives and strategies.
    What I may add is that I do both long and short trades and these counters give me peace of mind that they are less like to get suspended or other negative consequences.
    Will discuss more when Terence arranges the next meet.
    Roger

  177. Follow up to my tread on #176
    In view of current news about ban on naked shorts.
    All my short trades are legally sanctioned by the market.
    Roger

  178. wow, this thread is getting active!

    Ivan @ 160
    Not sure I wanna get bashed :)
    #164 – heehee. Let me know if you discover which company they’re all using!
    Ivan @ 175
    I dont recommend trading or learning to trade in this current environment. It is extremely volatile. Unless you ar a good day trader, stay out (btw, I was what would be termed a swing trader)
    Trading is actually more work than most people realise. There are many things to consider & monitor. (see Roger #176)
    Try paper trading like Roger said before jumping into it.

    btw, I’m pretty lazy these days so do more observing than trading. Most of my portfolio is now profesionally managed; ie in funds, etc or cash. Most of my effort are targeted @ looking for good managers.

    I personally believe that the market moves in cycles & realign my portfolio based on my views of which part of the cycle I think we’re in. I have been doing it intuitively but recently came across a concept called “Investment clock” that sums up pretty well what I do. Google it if you like.

    Daisy #172
    Not sure that I understand your concern. As Ivan (#174) said, unless you are migrating, your expenses are S$. In fact, when considering how my portfolio is doing, I convert everything back to S$.
    If you are talking about inflation, I’m afraid that there isnt much that can be done in the short-term. Cash is really King @ the moment. Remember +1% is better than -20%!

  179. btw, there was a short discussion some time ago on trading in the thread “Do you think SilverHairs in Singapore need jobs?”

  180. Andrew #178 Roger #176,
    No worries, whatever I asked or said are purely for academic discussion purposes ONLY. I have no intention or the stomach to trade or to risk my diminishing resources …. just trying to update myself and be up to speed with the current techniques/theories/tools ….

  181. Florene @ 166,

    Yes, hold on to your cash but keep your eyes opened. There are also pockets of opportunities now.

    I’m still waiting for the weak longs to be shaken out ….

  182. Daisy @ 172,

    Buy USD.

    Market is unwinding the USD carry trade. This one is mega huge …… seven years of USD decline ….. will take at least 6 months if not more, to unwind. Some analysts estimated this to be the world’s biggest carry trade of USD 10 trillion.

    As long as the hedge funds are still buying USD, the other currencies will weaken.

  183. Hi Eleanor,

    Can you elaborate what you mean by market is unwinding the USD carry trade. I have always felt the USD should begin to strengthen, and probably anytime now. Your views appreciated.

    Terence Seah

  184. Ivan & Roger
    Thanks for your comments. My question was prompted by an article in the Business Times last week which mentioned about the possibility of the SGD being depreciated. I guess in my mind, if the SGD’s value gets much lower than it is now vis-a-vis other major currencies, wouldn’t our bargaining power be lower too? How then to protect our bargaining power?

    Eleanor, thanks for your advice and I think I somewhat understand although I’m a novice. It would be great if you could attend the next investment talk to enlightened us further. From the last investment talk, you were right about the AUD touching 75cts against the USD. In fact, it has gone even lower.

  185. It all started with Fed rate cut 7 years ago. The US hedge funds saw that as an opportunity to borrow cheap USD to finance their purchase of foreign investments and assets, ie. carry trade.

    This was especially so in the last 2 years when US interest rates were really low. A bubble grew as the hedge funds borrowed aggressively to invest in emerging market assets, commodities, foreign currencies, equities, bonds, etc.

    Now that all the markets are falling, these hedge funds scramble to get out of all their long-commodity, short-USD positions. The unwinding in one market (eg. oil) spilled over to another (eg. equity) and then another (eg. currencies). This is the cause for record redemptions from US hedge funds.

    The sudden demand for USD was further exacerbated by money-market funds shortage because financial institutions were reluctant to lend. So for those who could not borrow USD in the money market would have to buy USD from the forex marekt.

    USD has declined for some 7 years because of their investments in foreign assets. If most of the hedge funds were to repatriate USD home, the buying (from 7 years of selling) would probably take 6 months or more to complete. That’s my view going forward.

  186. #181, #185 Eleanor Chan
    Many, many thanks – truly eye-opening…Eleanor, please touch on the Aust$-NZ$ pairing. Abandon them for USD$ now? Or hold on? If so, how long, approximately? What about gold, can you touch on that too? Thanks again.

  187. Hi Eleanor,

    Thanks for the info on US$ unwinding, what about the Yen unwinding? Understand that Japan funds manager and even housewife were borrowing Yen cheaply and buying NZ and Aus $ to earn the higher interest rates.
    So is the sudden drop in Aus and NZ $, the result of the YEN unwinding and if so do you think the Aus/NZ has bottomed yet ? Many investors were surprised by the Auz/NZ drop, and many are concerned what to do now, buy now to pay for children’s future education, etc ? Cheers

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