Managing retirement investments (session 2) – equities

This Fri 17 Oct 2008, Roger Lim has offered to moderate the second session on "Managing retirement investments – equities".

  • Place: 18 Bali Lane
  • Time: 1900 hrs. Please be seated by 1845 pm.
  • Fee: Free to SHC members.

Roger specialises in stocks, and would like his session limited to stocks. If you have any questions or concerns, Roger requests you to table them here.  Thank you Roger.

Meantime, we are trying to see if we can get another person to lead on the topic of USD going forward. Will keep you informed.

The earlier Post is https://silverhairsclub.com/2008/09/2139.

If you would like to come, please do let us know.

Terence Seah

Registration List:

  1. Roger Lim
  2. Daniel Ong
  3. Terence Seah
  4. Caroline Sit
  5. Christina Chan WH
  6. Annie Loh
  7. Peggy Ho
  8. Helen Wong
  9. Ivan Lim
  10. Daisy Yeo
  11. Linda Chang
  12. David Shung
  13. Andrew Thio
  14. Chow Weng
  15. Alice Seah

Author: Terence Seah

Founder

43 thoughts on “Managing retirement investments (session 2) – equities”

  6. Hi Terence,
    Tentatively, pls register me for this session. Not sure I can make it by 1900hrs due have some work to do that day and not sure can finished it early and be there on time…..

  10. Roger Lim will start the evening this Friday at 7pm.

    And if Eleanor Chan is able to clear her work on time, we hope to be able to see her at 8.30pm, on the second part of the evening. We hope to cover the topic “USD and SIN$ directions”.

    This event is strictly for SHC members only.

    Terence Seah

  11. Terrence / Roger
    would love to attend but busy Fri

    Eleanor
    citi’s currency strategist opined that US$ short term strength is primarily due to credit crunch (rather than interest rate cuts by others & carry unwinding). Despite the Central Banks pumping huge amounts of US$ into banks, everyone receiving money was hoarding what they received resulting in supply shortages.
    would be interested to know your opinion on this.

  15. For the Friday session “Managing Retirement Investments – Session 2 (equities), Roger would start at 7pm. He will be using the large screen and his laptop for screen projection. So sit right in front.

    Eleanor would like very much to join us; but unfortunately the late meetings on the Fri afternoon would prevent her from joining us.

    Let’s share our knowledge on this Friday evening.

    Terence Seah

  17. Andrew @ 11,

    I would not be able to comment on other’s strategy.

    My view is USD strength would hold as long as the hedge funds are unwinding their positions. This is further exacerbated by the credit crunch – banks reluctance to lend to one another.

    Action from the central banks is another issue. That was an emergency measure to get the financial wheel going – restoring market confidence. Otherwise, global depression will become a reality.

    Hang on tight while we ride out on this financial tsunami.

  18. Eleanor
    thanks. am hanging on tight but being flung around :P
    Luckily, Spore finally caved & guaranteed all bank deposits. Now I have one less thing to worry about & monitor. :)

  20. Please let me address a query on AUD and NZD here from one of the members.

    If USD were to continue to trend higher, it would be difficult for the pacific currencies (AUD, NZD) to recover. One strategy I adopt is to take advantage of the current high volatility to enhance the yield. For instance, I could easily get about 30% pa for one week, pairing AUD with USD and striking about 500 points higher. (In figure terms, AUD 100k principal would give you about AUD 600 in interest for 1 week.)

    Same for NZD.

  21. Hi Eleanor

    For those of us (meself included) not able to attend, could you give us your views on dual currency deposits:

    Are these deposits covered under the guarantee which the gahmen announced yesterday?

    If I have NZ dollars and keep them as a foreign currency deposit, this amount is covered under the guarantee.

    If I initiate a dual currency deposit like you suggested, would the amount still be guaranteed?

    What about foreign banks registered in Singapore, how “safe” is a bank like Royal Bank of Scotland in your opinion compared to a local Singapore bank?

  24. Hi Eleanor and all SHC investors!

    It is a very dangerous time to be in any investment without considering the risks involved. And currencies have as great a risk as any… the US dollar has risen despite the spiralling crises in the USA but this could be short-termed. And the exchange rate risk in this volatile market is higher… who’d have thought that the Aussie and NZ dollar will take such a plunge?

    Even the analysts and talking heads on CNA were recommending the Aussie and NZ dollars on Sense & Sensibilities after the steep drop… They did not even cut the programme!

    The answer to my question on guarantee was answered by the gahmen with their blanket cover on all banks and FIs… now we may see a rush to put money where the interest yield is highest, never mind that the bank has to get a government (foreign) lifeline back home.

    Dual currency? I don’t understand how beneficial it is to the man-in-the-street to take a bet on currencies against the bank.

    Obviously the questions I asked cannot be answered by the institution or the financial consultant… without getting a biased answer… so there is little comfort in turning to my banker.

    Caveat emptor!

  26. Hi Andrew

    Thanks for your reply… yes, all the deposits in registered banks and FIs in Singapore are covered under the Deposit Insurance Scheme. My reply at #24 just missed yours.

    And, Dual Currency Deposits are NOT covered under the Scheme. Refer to Financial Advisors Act (Cap 110).

    So we have to be extra careful who we listen to these days.

  27. Hi RogerL,

    Thank you for speaking and moderating on the topic “Managing Retirement investments”. The audience was pleased with the opportunity and time given for Q&A. A great sharing event.

    With this, I would be pleased to announce the next session soon.

    Terence Seah

  28. STI went below the 1,600 mark this afternoon. What’s next?

    Well it’s TGIF. Worry about it next week.

    Have a nice long week-end ahead. HAPPY Deepavali.

  29. FOR INFO (correct me if I am wrong)

    STI was 3900 in October last year.
    Today it is 1600.

    Is it time to pick some good seeds for a good harvest next Oct???

  30. Hi RogerL and All,
    Just for discussion sake and to understand the mechanics of STI Index Future Contracts “trading”; say with the STI Index at 1600; a trader buys a total S$16,000 worth of STI Index Future Contracts on Friday, 24Oct2008;
    1. what does this means?
    2. when will these contracts “expires” or does it expires at all or when must you close position?
    3. Depending on whether the trader “long” the contracts or “short” the contracts, come tomorrow 28Oct2008, the STI Index goes down to say 1510 at close of trading, what happens to these contracts’ value?
    4. How much are the “brokerage fees” for such “trades”?
    A quick and to the point answers will do. Thanks!

  31. Hi Ivan @30,
    I believe you are confused between Index futures and covered warrants. Strike price/value and expiry refers to covered warrants.
    Index futures are leverage products just like forex. It is traded in the Furtures market. There is no expiry. You are restricted only by the IM (initial margin) and MM (maintenence margin). The IM is to start your trade and MM is to maintain your exposure. As long as your IM and MM is suficient you can keep your open position for as long as you like. End of day valuation is based on mark-to-market basis.
    As with all derivative products it is better to day-trade than to keep overnight positions as the price swing can be very drastic. Margin calls are usually 24 hours.
    Your trade is governed by your target profit and cut-loss levels.
    The other product which is covered warrants is like a share traded in SGX. Its pricing is dependent on several variables with greek names like delta, vega, theta etc. In addition, price also depends on market maker’s respond to the mother share price movements. Furthermore the money you invested can become zero at expiry. Commission for covered warrant is same as its normal share transaction.
    Roger

  34. For those with a longer timeframe, you might want to consider ETFs instead of index futures. you can buy ETFs that track most indexes incl our STI.

    Christina @ 33
    suggest you consider attending courses/talks organised by SGX & its members before doing futures & warrants. being leveraged products, your gains/losses are magnified.
    also as roger & many others have pointed out in various comments, you should do paper trading before you jump in.

    I personally believe some personalities are better suited to different trading styles/market conditions. As I dont think mine is suited to day trading, I dont do that much

    To try & answer your Q,
    Warrants can be bought via your stockbroking account. buy PW (put warrant) if you believe market will fall & CW (covered warrant) if you beleive market will rise.

    For futures, you need to start a new account.
    I think most SGX members (Philips, KimEng, Cimb, etc) should have this.

  35. Daniel @ 29
    Looking @ the momentum of the drop, I think the index is now likely to undershoot where it was when bull run began; ie 1171. Warning: my personal, non-professional opinion

    In any case, market cannot begin any meaningful recovery until the events started by the credit crunch work its way through the system; ie poor sentiment -> reduced spending -> companies in trouble -> retrenchment -> property slump -> worse sentiment.

    Some stocks will bottom out faster than others but it’s still very risky to be entering the market as an investor at this stage so be prepared for a wild ride.

    On the other hand if you are a trader, the party is on…

  36. Hi guys!

    There’s so much talk on how to make money with options, forex, futures, warrants, etc that I think is going to be dangerous and confusing for the ordinary man-in-the-stret.

    The current debacle on Mini-bonds and Hi-notes are the result of people given the wrong impressions of the risks involved and the flawed products in the first place.

    I’m reading a book, “The Shadow Money Lenders” by Matthias Chang published in Malaysia last March. It’s really a collection of his published letters and emails and may appear disjointed. But he has valid opinions and answers on the current turmoil that has hit the financial markets all over the world. Through his views on how the banks and financial institutions have created the mess and the coming meltdown of the world economy, I am very, very afraid of what is to come.

    The book clearly explains just what is happening in our world economy today and how the banks, FIs, hedge funds have got us into this mess. And that there’ll be worse to come when the next event: the collapse of the property market worldwide happens.

    Some people may call Matthias Chang a sensationalist and doomsayer, but I think he has very valuable lessons for us… just how are we going to respond to his warnings?

    P.S. The book is available at the library or in JB bookshops for around $30.

  37. Kenneth #36
    Huh….when will you finish reading the book? Can loan it to me after you finished reading….have not read an investment book for quite a while. I dun think the Heartland library near my place has one…. would appreciate it if can you post the synopsis of this book found on it’s covers here for our info first. Thanks!

  38. Hi Ivan

    I borrowed the book from Marine Parade library… so sorry cannot pass it to you.

    Anyway, here’s a brief from the back cover:

    “This is a can’t put down book. Once you have read the first page, you will be at the edge of your seat, running through the pages as fast as you can. There is so much information about the global financial system that has remained hidden for over 30 years. It will shock you. This is why the author is such a passionate advocate for the abolishment of the Federal Reserve System in the US and the structure of Central Banks in the global economy. They have all been complicit in allowing the Shadow Money Lenders to embark on the largest transfer of wealth in history – from the millions lf hardworking wage earners to the 2 percent of the global elite,

    Untangling the complex structures and baffling terminology of derivative trading and products, the author has succeded admirably in exposing the hidden loan sharking opearations of the Shadow Money Lenders.

    The author has revaeled for the first time to the public the ultimate secret that has enabled the Shadow Money Lenders to amass a financial empire greater than the US economy. The US GDP is estimated to be US$13 Trillion as at 2007. The “GDP” of the Shadow Money Lenders is US$500 Trillion. This is not a typo error. These are official figures. The sources are revealed between the covers of this remarkable book. It is a courageous endeavour – a singular effort to take on the Shadow Money Lending System, the most ferocious fnancial predator in history.”

    Read it and be warned!

  39. Kenneth, the book cover intro has sold enough intrigue for many mired in this bog to want to steal, rob to read it.

    Lessons we learn. Or so we thought. With the rise of smarter financial wizards (and thus more wicked) in the aftermath of the last con-game, new but similar lessons will be taught to the next generations. No one will ever learn enough to stay away from greed or temptation. Will we live long enough to watch, worst suffer through, another financial debacle? Dont bet on it; it can happen within short years after this wobble.

    That brings me back to what I have predicted ad nauseum previously……that Nirvana awaits us only when the apes take control, take over. We can make that happen more quickly than soon…….go into the zoo 2nite and release our friends, heehee.

    Btw, in another thread you said that “Wee” conjures up a Peranakan. Ok, you can have that but please please, dont also usurp “Wee Wee” for the Peranakans……life will be miserable and a pain if you take that away from the rest of us……….

  40. My dear Ah Liu

    Steal and rob?!! No wonder so many library books are missing!

    Aiyoh! Ku semangat! (another peranakan malay expression) Our Tim is so worried for his “wee wee” that we must allay his fears….

    Can’t promise anything though, if he releases all those monkeys from the zoo!

  41. Hi All,
    A piece of good news. Those interested in reading the book entitled “The Shadow Money Lenders and the Global Financial Tsunami”, do let me know privately at: il63873828@yahoo.com.sg …… an eCopy can be made available to you FOC …. no need to buy / borrow / steal / rob / beg … but you will need a PC to read it though.

  42. Opshhhhhhh…just finished speed readin the eCopy of “The Shadow Money Lenders and the Global Financial Tsunami”. Wonder anyone knows how to be on Matthias Chang’s emailing list? Does he has a blog or something like that to continue reading on his takes of this Global Financial Tsunami since 03rd Feb 2008?

  43. Oh, oh! Ivan…

    All SHCs are taking cover… and not wanting to let on what they think or are investing in…

    That’s why no posts… better read a novel or watch a video than dwell on the financial implosion. Watch our wealth disappear into nothingness, clinging on to a promise of better times ahead. Take heart… go for retraining, try to build up again… get a job… any job!

    This time around IT IS DIFFERENT! The crisis has been triggered by the greed of banks and financial institutions. The degree of malpractise and even fraud is unparalleled in history.

    The credit default swaps (CDS) of which the HighNotes and MiniBonds feature are “weapons of mass destruction” as Warren Buffett puts it. This CDS market is US$54.6 trillion according to the International and Derivatives Swap Association. The US FED bailed out Bear Stearns, AIG to the tune of billions. But it did not do the same for Lehman.

    Now US investors who also have large sums (US$1 billion) with Lehman are sueing the bank thru class-action suits for fraud, after the news of Hong Kong’s (and Singapore) action.

    But greed has no bounds… the latest I heard is that the major US banks have used the billions of bail-out money to pay dividends to shareholders! This is a laugh! What can the new president of the US do?

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