Online trading chit chats – every Tues and Thurs

It’s been a long time since we chat about online trading.  In our earlier days, we had talks on shares and currency markets.  We had speakers. Small groups were formed and some are still on-going.  Our good old Ben Foo used to conduct online trading courses.  A number of SHCians trade online on a daily basis.  Some make some money; others, we will never know. 

I just spotted a new member reviving an old post by Ronald Wie.  It was titled "Group strategy" vs "Individual investor".  Maybe this would have made a lot more sense than the title itself.  I wonder how many SHCians are doing online trading, be it stocks or currencies.

The MPH cafe is pretty quiet in the afternoon, and ideal to discuss online trading tips.  There is WIFI connection, so you can have a good internet link with your broker’s server.  For a start, I like to invite 4-5 SHCians to come together, link up to their own broker’s server and share and enjoy trading tips.  So sorry, the cafe has only one or two power points.

My office is just two blocks away; so I shall come and see see.  Rene is also there; so she can learn from the more experienced ones.

Days:  Every Tuesday and Thursday, 2pm to 5pm sharp; except public holidays.  It starts after 2pm as lunch hours would be over then.

If you are keen to share online trading knowledge, tips, warnings and surprises, please register your name here, so we can expect your coming and allocate a corner for you.

Terence Seah

61 thoughts on “Online trading chit chats – every Tues and Thurs

  1. Hi Terence

    Will sms to you one or two tips during the week and you can divert the tips to other SHCians. Please bear in mind my tips are specifically gambling-tips or hedging-tips on speculative stocks. Can’t meet up and share knowledge as Tuesdays & Thursdays are full 12-hourly working days for me.

    Regards

    Abel Tan

  2. Hi Abel,

    Thank you for always wanting to share, even though you have been busy. As and when you have some days free, I like to invite you to talk to a small group on your favourite subject. I am sure we can hear how you pick, buy and sell your favourite stocks. Let me know if you have some time then.

    Terence Seah

  3. Ben Foo has resigned from philips security, probably that’s why the talks ended. Also we may be slow in using Poems to trade could be another reason, ha ha.
    Would like to attend, however i will be travelling from 8Jun10 till 25Jun10, pls let me know when its going to start anyway. By the way, do you all think Marco Polo Marine is a good buy now. Down alot but profitable. good for long term investment?
    made some money on genting last week, but it kept going up after I sold i grrrrr. rgds

  4. There is no necessity to use your broker account for demo purposes. I think most of us would be hesitant to log into our account unless he or she is comfortable to show his/her trading activities.

    However there are two websites which most people who trade actively would access it regularly for their research:

    http://www.sgx.com
    http://www.sharesinv.com/

    I use another site – http://www.t3btrader.com for historical data and charting purposes unfortunately this is a subscription-based site.

  5. Hi Wen Hong and StevenN,

    I believe both of you can give some of us the guidance, especially those who are thinking of jumping into online trading. There is always talk of risks; but with both of you around, and others, I think educated decisions are better than hunch choices.

    Any body else like to join in these sessions. Dont worry, if you are just thinking.

    Terence Seah

  6. i am interested in meeting, learning and sharing from any one who use the point & figure charting for their technical analysis? anybody out there who trade using this method?

  7. I am no expert or qualified to teach others, but can exchange ideas. I can’t understand tech analysis. Mine method is more of observation and monintoring and looking at charts. Another web pg which is free is http://www.sharejunction.com. One may join sias research which gives you tech details, analysis & recommend stks to buy. however you hv to pay a small sum annually to join as a memeber

  8. Weng Hon, if by “MPH cafe” you are referring to the Brastilava, it’s in the MPH bookshp which is situated at the junction of Robinson Road-McCallum Street.

  9. Thanks Tim Liu. Terence is that the MPH cafe(at Robinson rd) that you are refering to?

  10. Hi Fellow SHCians, I like to share my approaches to the financial markets.
    Our Foreign Minister *George Yeo’s fave phrase ” when the tide rises, all boats/ships are lifted. When the tides goes out/down, all boats/ships are grounded”. The past behaviours of financial markets bear out this statement as a truism.
    What it means is that no matter how great we thot the stocks we are holding are, they are generally susceptible to the risings & fallings of the cycles of the markets. As they also joked that in a rising/bullish market phase, any stocks we pick, wud make us look like genius. LOL.

    So my point is, look at/ study/learn/ approach the financial markets from a macro level. The question we always asked ourselves is, where are we now in the stock market cycle. Bullish Phase? Bearish phase? or consolidation phase.

    Dear Weng Hon, as to your question as to whether Marco Polo Marine can be bot, now tht it’s come down quite abit., we have to know the specific technical lvls of this stock. ( meaning the price of this stock where investors wud likely buy thereby giving support to the stock price- look at the charts for clues). But generally my point is even if you bot this particular stock near it’s support lvls/price, the price of this stock will still not surge when the general phase of the markets are still in a bearish mode. So you hear this funny familiar from friends that, ”buy only go down hor” So the point is, are we buying in a bearish, bullish or consolidating phase of the general stock markets?

    So do not fall in love with your stocks, be in love only with your money. Being stock centric is like being in a cave looking out, not seeing very much that’s happening around you. , wherelse others are siting in a helicoptor having a great view/ grasp of the situation.

    Also please bear in mind the differences between economic cycles & stock market cycles, the stock markets generally leads the economic cycle by + – 6 mths.

    Dear DanielO, very nice to know U r also trading( our champion waltz dancer) , you can access http://www.incrediblecharts.com/ and find out many things about point & figure charts. U can also google it. ( many things important to our survival are free, air e.g. so are information in the internet, it’s ridiculous to pay someone $4,500- for something they themselves got out of the internet. hahaha )

    At this point in our lives, our risk ratio wud be lower, we shud always find ways to diversify.
    The current fad/ thinking in the hedge fund industry are ETFs ( has been & still is)
    ETFs are a diversified portfolio of targeted industries./sectors of the economy, regions & countries.

    Recently a fellow SHCian asked me this question. How wud U advise a newbie in the start of their trading journey.

    1) For starters, read Secrets of Millionaires Investors
    **Adam Khoo & Conrad Alvin Lim

    You may read this book serveral times before you know it’s content fully.
    ( after trying many times, still dont understand any parts, call me )

    2) Attend free courses by MAS registered stock brokers.

    The above will keep U occupied for several months.

  11. Hi Henry #11,

    You definitely sound like an experience trader. From an experienced trader to a newbie, there are always advice and caution. From a newbie to an experienced trader, there are always awe and the “I can too”.

    The newbie is always afraid to lose; and will ask all questions so that he will not lose. But, knowing what other SilverHairs are doing to generate some income when they are close to retiring age or have retired, is one of our major concerns. It’s not that anyone of us are busybodies. When we have no other income, a dollar out from our savings is a dollar out.

    And, when you hear that others are trading at home, and making some money, you ask yourself, “I too would like to trade at home, and at any time. Better still, I get to make a few tens or hundreds of dollars.”

    To the newbie, gosh, this sounds very exciting. Open the Straits Times or the Business Times, and you see advertisements on trading platforms. Offers of free trading accounts. What do all these mean?

    Other newbies may have been trading independently. Hear a little rumour here and there. Make today. Lose tomorrow. And again make tomorrow.

    I am aware there are many independent traders in our group. Cam we hear from you?

    Terence Seah

  12. Hi Chief Terence #12 G’day. Yes I do trade actively on a daily basis. I like to clarify tht engaging at a macro lvl means I trade the stock indexes, Nikei 225, Hang Seng index, STI, Dow Jones , S&P 500 etc etc.

    I trade this thru Futures contracts & CFDs.

    Let me elaborate the next time I update again. Now I hope other traders in our SHC group hear Terence’s call & help us build this into FORTRESS SHC hahaha

  13. dear Henry, thanks for your opinion. I have not bought Marco Polo Marine before. Its just one of the stks in my watch list. According to a Analysis this is a good stk for long term basis. Fundermentals are good, intrinsic value is 0.73 cents, current price is around 0.365 cents. Profitable co. and good projects in process. etc…
    We should try to come up with a simple way rather than follow the ‘gurus’ who are too technical. however, I argree trading is hard work and knowledge. it is good to exchange ideas and opinions, brainstorming. rgds

  14. Today price is $0.375 (52 wk high is 0.645 and 52 wk low is 0.325) with a PE ratio of 11.4 and EPS is $0.033. Net Asset Value (NAV) is $0.279 and price-to-book is 1.34.

    For long term investment Marco Polo Marine is a good buy – this is my personal opinion.

  15. Hi Steven #15,

    If you don’t mind, I shall be more inquisitive. Let’s say you buy Marco Polo marine today at $0.375. If you treat this as a long term investment, and of course, assuming it trends upward, and that this is your buying pattern, would such a buyer be able to make say 1000 dollars a month?

    Sounds like a simplistic question, just wanting to hear your view, especially coming from a newbie.

    Terence Seah

  16. LOL,
    Steven-N appears to be a Fundamentalist….
    Henry-Y appears to be a Techee….
    WenHon appears to use guts feeling….
    Abel-T appear to be gambling….
    Me???? None of the above ….. no time for these anymore and no spare $$$ to play. :((((
    STay-InVested,
    Ivan

  17. ha ha wise thinking Ivan, trading is not for everyone. It is not a sure way of making money. One might lose his pants instead. Best way is to stay employed. Try ‘paper’ trading first. trade without real money. I guess it is the ‘mindset’ and interest to learn, just like a job, business or anything.
    some fulltime traders I know seem to be making regular income everymonth. However, I think a lot of effort and time has been put in.
    For the rest of us, we can’t be sure of making $1000 every month. cheers

  18. Hi Weng Hon#18 G’day. Trading/investing is not for everyone. It’s true. It’s also true that not everyone will be willing to be trained properly to be a good trader & investor.

    Good doctors & good architects are not for everyone. It’s true. It’s also true that not everyone will be willing to be trained properly to be good doctors & good architects.

    There’s no issue about it being nature or nurture. It’s all about nurture.( training) Good doctors & good architects are trained. They are not born to be good doctors or architects.

    So for those who are willing to apply the same efforts & time to be a good doctor, can be a good trader / investor too. cheers !!

  19. sound interesting to share about stock trading
    I would love to join as I am an active trader but only during bull run not bear (but would like to learn how to short using CFD)

    count me in for Tues or Thurs session

    My advice is not to buy shares now unless it is dividend strong stock(very bearish now…I think Dow will go to 9000 and below)

    christina

  20. Hi Christina #20 G’day 1St SHC lady to express her opinion here, and wow it’s already a strong ”convictioned” opinion.

    Bravo to women who hold up half the HEAVENS!! Cheers!

  21. Hi Terence at message #16,

    I am sorry I do not really understand what you mean.

    Do you mean that can a buyer make a thousand dollars if he buy Marco Polo marine at $0.375 on a long term basis?

    Depending on individual risk aptitude, if he is prepare to invest that say $100,000 on that stock and assuming he is fortunate that the stock increase by 10 percent (for this example $0.037) he will already make $10,000

    Stock trading is all about psychology and you need to manage your emotion, patience, fear and greed as well the trading technique itself. Most successful stock traders are able to control their emotions to the point of being void of feelings.

    I started buying stocks and shares when I started working after national service after having exposed to the world of trading when I was schooling (I was in the commercial stream). My colleagues who were just sitting to my next tables were buying stocks and share like crazy whenever the market get hot.

    Whenever they make some money, I alway have free tea and snacks during tea-time. It did not take long for me to engage in the same activities especially when we were working in the banks. Most of our customers who after finished their banking transactions will be sharing with us all the tips about which stocks and shares to buy.

  22. Like Christina @ #20, I would also like to learn how to “short”. Any teacher out there willing to share some tips on “shorting” ? Have read somewhere that regardless it’s a bear or bull market, good traders are able to make money out of any situation.
    The often touted mantra “Buy low, sell high” is hard to achieve. When you thought you have bought low, it often can goes lower as we have seen recently in the EURO-PIIGS
    crisis.

    For me, I have learned to buy only blue chips for long term
    investment as they give better returns compare to bank FD and no need to monitor everyday.

    I believe there’s “no one size fits all” when comes to trading. It depends on individual ‘appetite’ on risks and how deep one’s pocket can goes.

    But if you have any hot tips, please do give me a buzz!
    Eveready to make some kopi money if reliable…hehehehe 🙂

    Cheers everyone!

  23. Hi Christina #20, Constance Wong #23 G’day.
    If both of U r interested in a CFD class, Philip Securities do organise them regularly. I’m also very sure that there are many SHCians out there who maybe interested. CFD is another revolutionary product offered to retail traders.

    Dear Christina & Constance, hope one of you take up the challenge to organise as a EO for the classes. Cheers!

  24. Hi HenryY #24,

    You seem pretty knowledgeable with CFD. I got to admit I know nuts about CFDs. Are you able to share what CFDs are all about? At least, an intro will be great.

    I am aware some SHCians trade wit hPhilip Securities. There are other trading platforms too. I am hoping for more SHCians to give some inspiration too.

    Hi StevenN #22,
    I was asking if one can make a $1000 a month doing online trading at home. You sound pretty optimistic. Are you are day trader? I see the ladies are more long term and safe traders.

    Terence Seah

  25. Hi Terence #25
    Contracts for difference (CFDs), are an accessible way to trade on the prices of financial instruments such as shares, indices and commodities. Unlike buying shares, when trading CFDs you do not physically own the underlying instrument you are buying or selling and therefore do not have to pay the associated costs of using a stockbroker such as account management fees, commissions and stamp duty.

    CFDs allow you to trade on whether the price of a financial instrument is likely to go up in value (strengthen) or go down (weaken). Your profit or loss is determined by the difference you buy at and the price you sell at. This gives you the opportunity to potentially profit from a market whether it is rising or falling.

    For example, imagine a major oil company has just forecast a record profit and you think the price will go up. You decide to buy 1000 CFDs at S$19.90. If the price moved up, say from S$19.90 to S$20.00, you would have made a profit of S$0.10 per CFD owned. With 1000 CFDs, that would equate to S$100.

    However, if the price dropped by S$0.10, you would lose S$100 instead. For a more detailed example of a CFD trade visit our CFD trading example.
    Continuation proceed to http://www.cmcmarkets.com.sg/cfd/what-are

    Henry: Now with CFDs retail investors can access the financial markets more easily with a lower outlay of capital etc. whether it’s shares, sector indexes, country indexes, commodities, foreign exchanges etc. in all the established economies of the world. See it for your self, it’s mind-boogling!.

    I have pasted CMC website here becos it’s one of the coy I trade thru. & for which I’m familiar, of course there are other good coys too.

    It’s important that we have a thorough education on any subject matter such that even when fellow SHCians provide us tips, we are able to evaluate the merit of the tip. Without knowledge, our ability to evaulate what other say are very much diminished. cheers Henry.

  26. Hi Terence at message #25,

    As mentioned in my previous message, stock trading is about managing your psychology and understand how to appy trading techniques correctly and properly. If you are able to do that, making a thousand dollars a month will be chicken feet. In fact I know a few guys who are full-time trader but working very little time and making an average profit of 5 figure monthly. However they do went through a difficult learning curve and losing thousand of dollars before they hit the right formula.

    In every businesses there will always be about 10 to 20% people who are making money and the rest are just getting by or losing money. I need to mention again just because someone is making money that does not mean you will be able to make money unless you have the same psychology and the required knowledge and techniques yourself.

    Hi Henry at message 26,

    I notice that you mentioned that you do not pay any commission or associated fee for trading CFDs. Can you re-confirm it that it’s include equities CFDs as Phillips security charges a commission rate of between 0.2 to 0.3% plus a financing charges.

  27. Hi Steven#27 G’day. CMC does not charge commission on most of their products except shares. If U buy Sing,US or any other shares, they will charge U , but I think still more competitive than Phillips. I hv been trading with Ph for many many years, I also hv many frds in PH, so when I see the competition bypass them, it also break my heart. I kept telling them to be more competitive & kept giving them feedback.

    I want to say clearly that whichever broker I mentioned here, I hv absolutely no vested interest.

  28. Ph was the 1st on-line broker in Sing & the region, for a time with their poems, they were the competition to beat. But now with on-line CFD providers who can operate more cheaply & with a very superior platform, things changed.

    Even Apple now is the bigger coy than Microsoft. ( unthinkable just a few months ago).

    The economic environment is getting evermore dynamic. ( survival of the fittest brains now).

  29. In share trading, what share to buy and when to buy is important, and when to sell is equally important.

    I have read an article in the Fundsupermarket magazine, it listed out 3 rules for selling

    1. Don’t add to lost
    When we buy a share and the situation going against us (the share price drop and if we sell, we will make a lost), usually we will hold and hope the share price will go up again. Someone will even buy more during it drop to do what called “averaging”

    The first rule said that this is risky, and usually we will make more lost.

    2 Maximize gain
    When we buy a share and its price going up to some extent, say 10%, 20%, 30%, we will consider selling it to take profit, but found that the share price going up further later

    The second rule said that we should hold a share which is going up until it lost its energy. Selling it too early will limit your gain

    3. Know what you are going to do before you do it
    Usually, we will decide when to sell after we buy a share and make our decision to sell according to the situation. In this time, all the emotional factors will come in and make us do the wrong decision

    The third rule said that we have to set some guidelines in advance for us to sell and follow it strictly. You can review and modify these guidelines after the sell but not before it.

    The three rules are simple, but how to achieve them? Of course many tools in the technical analysis (such as the point & figure chart mentioned by Daniel Ong in C#6) can help us. But if you like me don’t know anything about technical analysis. I have a method to share (not a good method, but better than none).

    The method is called “Floating stop” (I am not sure whether this name is proper) which usually used in Forex trading. A stop is a price whenever it reach, we will sell our share in hand to stop lost or take profit. A floating stop is a stop that will go up with the share price, but never go down.

    For example, if I buy a share in $1, and set a 10% stop. If the share price never go higher than $1 and go down gradually. I will sell this share at 90 cents. If the share price go up say $1.1, then the stop will raise to (1.1 – (1.1 * 0.1))0.99 cents and if the price go up to $1.2, then the stop will raise to (1.2 – (1.2* 0.1)) $1.08 and so on. Even the share price go down to $1.1 again, the stop will still keep in $1.08

    Of course, this is just an temporary measure, provide that we don’t know anything of technical analysis. But as our tutor Henry Yip said in C#19 every one can be trained as a good trader, so we should use some time and effort to learn some more practical method such as the tools in the technical analysis

    Furthermore, Christina raise a very important point in trading (C#20)- never do trading in bear run. So if you sense a bear run is forming, sell all your shares in hand no matter gain or loss, keep the money and wait for the next bull to come.

  30. Hi dear tutor Henry

    You have mentioned two instruments: ETF and CFD, I have the following questions for these two.

    ETF
    This should be similar to the unit trust, should it be used for investment (as the unit trust) or for trading/hedging

    CFD
    To my understanding, this is a zero-balance (or -ve balance if commission is included) instrument. So it can be short or long. For CFD of share, only part of the shares can do CFD, and the market size is much smaller than the actual share market.

    I can understand why we do short in the CFD, because we cannot do in the normal share market. But If I want to long (buy), in what condition I will do in the CFD but not in the normal share market? Any advantages?

  31. Hi Andrew#30 / 31
    Tutor? where are my tutorial fees? hehehe

    Let me answer you in brief, but I still suggest that classes ( they are free anyway) be arranged, so that everybody have a thorough understanding instead of pieces of question & reply here & there ( a little knowledge is dangerous).
    ETFs works like unit trust but without the management fees charged to unit trust, so naturally they r more popular.
    ETFs are used for investment. They can be bot thru the exchange like shares where they are listed. ( they r non-leveraged products)
    Quote ”this is a zero-balance (or -ve balance if commission is included) instrument”
    Dont quite understand the above quotation Andrew.
    For CFDs kindly refer to #26 and the webpage provided.

    I try to help with some queries here & there and be encouraging, but at the end of the day, if those who want to , are serious about it, should arrange for the classes.

    cheers !

  32. Hi AndrewY, HenryY, StevenN, ConstanceW, ChristinaP, Abel, Wen Hon, DanielO, also Ivan and Tim,

    The subject of trading in equities, ETFs, currencies, gold, commodities, etc, etc has surely drawn in a lot of curiosity. It’s probably a nice way to make some income, especially when we see that others can do it, so why not I? I too agree with Henry that it is good to attend some of the available courses, but then where to start. Abel is also a regular trader; and so are the others who have contributed to this post.

    Although I like to gather groups around to talk and share, I am also rather lost because there are different platforms, trading different products. There must be some form of support group or groups, so that the independent trader can pick up enough courage to even get started.

    We had discussed this subject many moons ago, but the sessions are rather adhoc, with little follow-up. So, everybody goes their own way. I have been following up closely on this thread; hopefully we can identify starter groups. Many are just too shy or feeling that making some money is sinful. Now, StevenN, I am looking at making $1000 a month, so that I can retire.

    Terence Seah

  33. Terence, I hear you calling me.

    Stock/share trading has been my nemesis so if i cant deal with simple buy-sell, more complex financial instruments 7 derivatives must certainly be beyond my depth. Since sh loong son freed cpf funds for investment in shares, i have seen my portfolio doubled in value and now languishing in the lows, value halved with some companies belly-up and kaput.

    I am now into smthg very earnestly, smthg I can do well but hv often failed to rein in my greed & impatience. Whatever, do wish me well in my PT endeavours.

    Btw, there’s this guru whom i respect a lot. Where is KT Wong? He is knowledgeable, suave and like him, I too am thrilled to skirt the borders of danger. Nice if he wd return.

  34. Thank you Dolly.

    I am still on stand-by for your and Sam’s Dinner & Trance and will be the number to meet yr quota if it comes to the need.

    Wherever you are, keep well and keep smiling for reason and for no reason……………

    ???????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????

  35. hi andrew(#30)

    i will be glad to share my simple technical analysis tools with you if you are interested; i use only the moving averages and point & figure charting to trade both equities and unit trust; the “floating stop” or stop loss that you mentioned is also incorporated in my approach; you need however to be familiar with spreadsheets as everything is automated using spreadsheets; email me on d4thong@yahoo.com.sg if you are keen to follow up on this;

  36. HI Tim,
    In fact, both Sam and me wished vry much dat you can attend the D&D lor i/o of just on Standby le. ai lai mai..

    Yeap, no worry, I am very well here at Haikou evendoe d stress level here is sky hi… Cheers.. Dolly

  37. Let me expand on Henry Yip (message #32) on ETFs:

    ETFs are listed on the exchange and can be bought and sold throughout the trading day. Unit trusts and traditional funds are not listed and they are bought and sold through sales personnel who distribute unit trusts on behalf of the fund management houses or banks. Investors of unit trust or traditional funds can only bought or sold at end-of-day prices.

    Most ETFs generally aim to track indices. In other words, when investing in ETFs, you are effectively investing in the price movements of the component stocks in the underlying indices. Thus, ETFs give you the opportunity to buy or sell the entire portfolio of the component stocks as a single security.

    An ETF holds assets such as stocks or bonds and trades at approximately the same price as the net asset value of its underlying assets over the course of the trading day. Unlike traditional funds, you can see ETF prices and trade ETFs anytime during trading hours

    Exchange-traded funds offer the following advantages:

    * Efficiency: In a single transaction on ETF, investors can obtain a cost efficient exposure to a diversified portfolio of securities. In addition, ETFs have no sales charge and its annual management fees are lower than the traditional funds such as unit trusts.

    * Transparency: Investors are able to monitor the live prices for ETFs during the trading hours as compared to forward pricing for unit trust. Investors are also able to monitor and access the performance of the underlying stocks in an ETF.

    * Flexibility: The ability to perform live trading on ETFs gives the investors the flexibility to implement their own investment strategies and react rapidly to the volatile market.

    * ETFs do not have sales charges that are charged in unit trusts or traditional funds. The usual brokerage, clearing and trading fees that are chargeable when trading stocks on SGX apply for ETFs.

  38. Hi Terence at message #33,

    Are you sure you are looking at making $1000 a month? I believe most people with a workable set of legs, hands and brain can easily make $1k a month. Most likely you are looking at making $100k a month 🙂

  39. Hi Dear tutor Henry
    Thanks for sharing. Tutorial fee? next time we meet, the drink (coffee or tea) and two pieces of toasts will be on me, ok? haha

    Hi Steven
    Thanks for the details of ETF, we never meet before. If next time we meet, same as my offer to turor Yip, drink and two pieces of toasts on me. see you.

    Hi daniel
    Seems very interesting, I am good in spreadsheet(haha, boasting) As I said, I don’t know anything about TA, sure will e-mail you for an meeting to learn from you. This week a little bit busy, will e-mail you next week. Thanks, see you.

  40. Dear All, Just a 2cts worth of opinion.
    Do not be bearish anymore. All charts have turn neutral or bullish.
    G20 will most likely say continuation of loose money conditions this week. The retracements we saw have been fulfilled, we now continue the bull run – up north!!

  41. Since it’s 2cts worth of opinion, do not buy more than 5cts worth of stock. hahaha caveat emptor !!

  42. Henry,

    When you say all charts, which charts are you using.
    How do you tell that they are neutral or bullish.
    You have set certain targets in your retracement scenario and it had been fulfilled.
    Could you kindly share with us.
    Thanks.

  43. Hi Roger #44 G’mrgn. Apologise, I am referring to #13. The indexes, the major indexes of their respective countries whch give clues to the state of their economy and the collective clues of the global economy as a whole.

    I welcome U to this discussion. Out of curiosity, I spent most hours ( apart fm watching football) going back to SHC’s postings on investments. I notice tht SHC is not lack of rational, knowledgeable people on the subject of investing ( I’ve not read all yet), notably TerenceS, Tai-korTim, KemmethT, CharlesC, AndrewY, LimTiangSoon etc etc there are many more names I missed out bcos I’ve not read finished. And not least yrself RogerL, from the questions U asked others fm previous post, I deduce U r a black belt immediately haha, wht I wanted to know is wht DAN haha.

    The question tht immed’ly crossed my mind is why r there stops & starts?. A period we talk abt it, and then it fades and then hving it resurfaced again later, such tht Kenneth asked a very good question. quote ”Wow!! So much interest in investing… and quite a number who want to attend/learn about investing.

    My concern is that there have been a few times before where the subject of investing had been raised, even leading into talks and forays into forex, share trading, retirement investing, ScoreBot trading systems, etc.

    What did become of all these? Did any unpleasant, unwarranted situation and even financial loss occur out of them?

    We must keep the SHC forum away from self and commercial interests. If any member wants to share his interests, knowledge and “financial savvy”, let it be done through the forum or a talk open to all. And any decision to make any investment or open a trading account be separate from the SHC.

    Yes, we may talk and the topic may fizzle out… but we have to keep it within certain boundaries.” This is #23 of Sharing stock & investment market info and happenings.

    I think Chief Terence wud share with me tht Kenneth hv set the STANDARD BEARER for the way v shud conduct activities in this area. WELL DONE Kennth!

    Now I like to invite all our knowledgeable SHC friends to come into this thread to share their views on the stock/ financial markets moving forward from here. I’ll answer yr question Roger, but I wud like to invite U to share with us yr views. I like to stress we are all forum participants for mutual learing. All of us like to learn fm each other. Thank you.

  44. I noticed I missed out good names like AndrewT etc etc ps pardon me, not slept in 24 hours. sorry!

  45. Just an idea, we may list down names of knowledgeable SHC frds who r willing to give their views on a rotational month-end basis, not unlike yr ST Wed series alternating betw LKY H Kissinger etc etc, so tht v keep this subject of investing alive & continious for the benefit of all. cheers!

  46. One last post b4 I go to sleep, ( cheong hay lo)
    Incidentally Simon S i m of 7 years is a personal frd of mine. The only flaw he has is tht he tries to be perfect. Perfect numbers etc etc. Otherwise he’s a brilliant technical analyst whch his employer U b s wud attest to. cheers!

  47. Henry,

    Sorry I didn’t catch what you are saying nor why you make such a bullish call.

    You may want to advise your friend of 7 years to withdraw his book from the market. He has been proven wrong and should not continue to mislead innocent investors.

    His prediction of the Straits Times Index hitting >4000 was a lost gamble that is far off the mark and his prophesy of a 7 year cycle is a hoax. Linking market outcome based on a biblical story is no better than analysts who uses astronomy and tea leaves to predict market events.

    It is your personal choice to believe him but please do not lead others into something that has been proven incorrect.

    BTW Simon Sim is a client of my friend.

    A stock index is a number based on the performance of a basket of specifically selected stocks. In theory, it is suppose to reflect market sentiment but in reality it sometimes differ. Many reasons but as an index player you definitely know what I mean.

    Indices and FX are straight forward products compared to stocks. In stocks trading, besides the overall market direction, you have to pick the correct stock. Thats the reason why reading charts for stocks is more difficult than reading charts for Indices and FX.

    There is however a co-relationship between indices and stocks. Many of us would have experienced a good night sleep after seeing the European indices and Dow Jones being up >100 points and wake up seeing DJ down >100 points. It certainly affects trading sentiments.

    Therefore it will be good if you can share with us why you are so bullish at this juncture.

    For market players, my gut feel is that we are not out of the “woods” yet as the ills of EU and USA are not over yet. Market is quite resilient on the downside but will continue to be locked in range bound till the next reporting season.

    The rising prices for past 2 weeks is more likely due to coming “window-dressing” play. June is triple witching month, meaning: month-end, quarter-end and half year-end closing. Funds are cooking all kinds of dishes to show to investors, so I won’t relate current uptrend as a “breakout” directional move. It is an exciting time where indices and options have to close their books, so join in the fun. This is like those eat as much as you like buffet. Pick a few dishes here and there, slupp them up and then move on. However, don’t over eat or there are consquences.

    For indices trading, you do not need to be bullish to make money because you take the market in both directions. So, I believe you are refering to stocks as most SHC members are traditional “BUY” only investors.

    I had wanted to organise a trading club for SHC but discarded the idea. Trading stocks full time is a very capital intensive and highly skill oriented thing. Furthermore, one need to be able to understand risks, set-backs, possess a never say die attitude and develop an interest in finance, economics and politics. Unfortunately my assessment is that most SHC members do not fall into this category.

    To make it simple for those who do not understand the above, let me give some analogies on stock trading:

    Trading stocks is like playing mahjong.
    When you have mastered level 3,
    you lose to players with level 6.
    When you have mastered level 6,
    you lose to players with level 9.
    Finally you mastered level 9,
    only to discover that you lose to level 10.
    Level 10 = LUCK.

    Trading stocks is like dancing.
    Its a delight to watch skillful dancers.
    You always imagine you can dance like them.
    You take lessons and train deligently.
    You start from scratch and learn from mistakes,
    only to discover that the dance floor do not tolerate mistakes.

    Trading stocks is like cycling.
    You cannot learn by just reading and listening,
    you need to get on the bike.
    You cannot learn how to balance without falling,
    you must learn how to accept pain.
    You cannot learn if you quit early,
    you must get on the bike again and again.
    However, once learned you mastered it for life.

    Cheers.
    Roger

  48. Hi Roger Tks for yr long discourse.
    understanding it or not is another issue all together. it’s important v hv a diversity of view.
    QUOTE ”It is your personal choice to believe him but please do not lead others into something that has been proven incorrect.”
    I find yr accusatorial style hard to understand, ps show us wht I hv written tht lead u to tht conclusion.
    God help those to help themselves. If U want to b confrontation, ps leave out, haha not interested. thank you.

  49. sorry
    ” ps leave out, haha not interested. thank you.”

    shud read ”ps leave me out”

  50. Well, well, well, step in I must, step on toes, I wont.

    You both have smthg in common. You both are good chaps and are my butties. Also, like me, a bit strong-headed, a bit stubborn and are looking at the same elephant alveit from different angles but trust me, when you both get to meet, you will love each other, 2nd only to loving your wives, gfs and kids.

    Learn to sing Mandarin songs then when you both are ready, let us meet at the suntec guild hse if you both hv not already met by then and we sing our arguments like Liu 3 Jie did in duets……..treat on me.

    Now, still hv time to invest in 2nite’s 4 matches……..all 8 teams hv a fighting chance to qualify fo the last 16.

  51. Hi TaiKorTim, tks for being such a gentlemen. I’ll take a rain cheque. Life’s short, v count our blessings everyday. I dont intend to play superhero in this club, neither vieing for popularity contest hahaha.
    But there are great people in this club who hv good noble intentions. Wht’s wrong with us being enthusiastic & try to lighten their load. tio bo! hehehe
    Anyway last night, U hv seen how my chips r depleting, no inspiration tonight. U take care Timmy Tim Tim….hahaha

  52. Henry,

    Get to the point then and have the guts to back up what you say.

    You have make an extremely bullish call at #42. Its against the current sentiment and therefore my polite request on sharing. Instead of answering simple queries you went on your long discourse. So much to say about sharing, etc, etc but when taken to task cannot deliver.

    Read your own post at #48 and let others decide who is accusing who. I repeat that Simon Sim has been proven wrong and you are backing the wrong guy.

    In post #45, you mentioned “The indexes, the major indexes of their respective countries whch give clues to the state of their economy and the collective clues of the global economy as a whole.”

    Precisely why I asked you to clarify because most data I have do not seem to point that way. I repeat my request: Could you please enlighten us how all your charts have triggered that extremely bullish call.

    TimL thanks for the invite. Its ON for me weekdays after 5.30pm, no rain cheques. Lets see what our friend have to say.

  53. Hi RogerL,

    I have been tracking this Post with more than just interest. However, I am not smart enough to read available technical charts and analysis.

    Was wondering where u went to, after the disappearance of Ben Foo. Good to see you participate on this thread.

    I may be wrong and leading a number of people nowhere. But a lot of us are interested in trading. With retirement coming close, I think trading may be an option. So, I set this thread up. Response has been good, although I am still not sure how to go about setting up a catalyst to fuel this topic or topics.

    Gosh, you are hot but I guess u have your point. In fact, I am following up the responses, and was hoping guys or gals with your knowledge can help SHC members move in a systematic direction.

    Wide directional views are important. Help me, us and the club. Trading appears very individualistic. I have hope that group support can direct us.

    Terence Seah .

  54. Dear Tim, dont bother to ask me anyhing connected to this person. I stay far away fm people who doesnt understand integrity, self-respect n shoot off their mouth accusing all n sundry. The mkts will decide whether I’m right or wrong, not some self appointed emperor who thinks tht in the process of our exercising our rights of self expression ( for whch Terence hv so generously provided this platform) v r subjected to him whim & rude scrutiny. Say wht U like, I cant b bothered. I’m v happy to hv nothing to do with this person . This subject ends here. full stop.

  55. Henry,

    I had expected this from you.

    The market has proven Simon Sim wrong and the market has now proven you wrong. You make your “out of the blues” extreme bullish call on 21st June and at this juncture while I am typing, you are WRONG! Those who have been tracking the market are no fools.

    I am more concerned with those who do not understand the markets nor charting and blindly follow such unsubstantiated calls.

    Don’t get so stressed up trying to explain anymore.

    I agree this subject ends here only if you develop the integrity to back up whatever directional calls on the market in future.

    There is no right or wrong in making a directional call. We are not here to find fault with anyone. However, there is a responsibility when one makes a directional call and must be able to support it.

    Others may have a different opinion and we must be ready to discuss our diferent readings of the market in order for this blog to be beneficial to all members. If this blog can be successful, it shall be because we are willing to share our experiences with each other.

    Terence, you are right that trading is very individualistic and largely dependent on a person’s personality traits. If you mean serious trading, my personal opinion is that most SHC members are not ready. If you mean interested members can sacrifice a few thousand dolars to learn trading, there is hope.

    Regards
    Roger

  56. Roger,

    I too expected this cheap lying trick from U. I see U r bend on provoking me with yr lies, U like to challenge, provoke & even invoke the word ”guts”, to show to the folks here U r the great hero.
    U can do tht, but pls dont drag me in with yr lies. I’ve no interest in competing with U.

    1st of all, hv I specifically say tht Simon Sim was right, Pls read carefully, u coward, I even say tht he’s flawed!!!
    He is my frd, & yet I’m forced to say tht.

    Pls dont lump Simon Sim in with me and try to fool the folks here & try to demolish my contention/ my view point.

    My view point is very simple, take the S&P 500

    From Mar 2009 from 666 to top out in April 2010 at 1220
    Those who r with me in ( April trip in Phom Phen) can bear witness tht I call a top there, ( i called it a cyclical top). & I asked my buddies to sell their stocks.

    Since then we have seen a low of 1038 in the S&P ( roughly a pull back of 1/3 of the 666 to 1220 move )
    Now Roger the lying coward, hv the S&P broke below 1038? !!! The dow Jones up 100 today down 100 tomorrow & U r trying to fool the folks here to declare I’ve been proven wrong by the market, stop yr cheap lying tricks!!!!!!

    When I raise the issue abt not to be bearish anymore, I’m directing it to Christina Pan, who call for 9000 on the Dow, whch is rather far fetch, unless we experienced another lehman type situation.

    Those who know Technical anaylsis will know tht for the S&P 500, V r still within a bull trend, with fibonaci 50% retracement ard 943. V only managed 1038 on the pull back. This is in itself a bullish sign. Since V touch 1038, V hv traded to 1135 & currently at 1081. V r still trading within the range . My view is tht v will probably trade around here before moving higher. Tht’s my view, U hv problem with tht, U coward!!!!

    Where is yr integrity? U keep using lies to try & demolish my character here,

    U like to use words like ”guts” & challenge other people’s guts, Now I’m calling U a coward.

    Listen carefull…

    Tomorrow between 7-10pm I’ll be at Kovan, I now challenge U if U hv the f…. Guts to provoke me further with yr lies in front of my face, & naturally I’ll under such provocation ”bashed u up” Too bad if U r 9ft tall, I’ll go to hospital, I dont mind, then I’ll stop calling U a coward who use lies to tanish other’s character. If U dont show up, I’ll forever call U a coward!!! deal !!

    Show everybody yr guts lah!!!!

  57. Roger the lying coward, let me remind U tht it’s tonight at Kovan 7pm. It’s not last night or tomorrow night hor!!!!
    When I call a top in the stock mkt in April ( ps chk with my PP buddies esp Catherine Yeo, even when v are back in S’pore, in following days, i kept reminding her to sell ) where the F were U, Do U hv any F…g idea where the mkt was headed!!!! As far as I can see, U only know how to attack anybdy who tries to cotribute something!!!

    I take this very personaly, I will wit for U coward!!!!! u talk abt guts, show the whole world yr guts tonight!!!!!!!!

  58. Hi friends,lets share our experiences and not engage in argument. Below an interesting article on the stock market..We are experiencing a critical time in the stock market

    The ongoing credit crisis continues to caste an ominous shadow over the
    stock market and the light at the end of the tunnel is very dim.

    However, there will always be speculation (including my own) so if you
    are involved in the market or planning to get involved, here are the top
    ten mistakes you need to avoid.

    1.) Don’t Try To Catch A Falling Knife – If a stock is dropping, it’s
    not your job to save the company. If it’s falling hard and it’s falling
    fast, it’s falling for a reason.
    Too many people make the mistake of thinking, “wow, this stock has
    dropped twenty dollars in value, I can buy it now and definitely make a
    quick five dollars.
    WRONG. More likely, it’s still got a ways to go. AMBAC (abk) was at 96
    two years ago. It’s now below 1. (As of July 25th, 2009)Let someone else
    save the day and pick the bottom. It’s okay if we
    miss the first couple of points if there’s really going to be a rally.
    If you try to catch a falling knife you will get hurt.

    2.) Like The Book Says, Do What Wall Street Does Not What They Say – If
    you get in the habit of buying stocks because they are upgraded or
    selling stocks because they are downgraded then you’re probably
    developing a bad habit. You need to learn how to evaluate the stock for
    yourself. Not a full scale investigation of the company, simple steps
    such as monitoring the volume to look for a buying or selling pattern,
    recognizing support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting
    patterns. There could be a very good reason for downgrading a stock but
    it doesn’t mean that it’s going to move up big before it goes down or
    vice versa. When COACH (coh) got downgraded, I bought it and sold it 3
    points higher. It eventually went down but not until after there was
    good money to be made in it.

    3.) Don’t Trade Penny Stocks, Period! – Stop buying thousands of shares
    of a ten cent stock just because you can. the stock market is like life,
    you need to earn what you make by being consistent and doing the right
    thing. If you look for the easy way out (buy a bunch of a really cheap
    stock and hope it goes up) then you’ll probably start going in reverse
    and then the hole you need to dig yourself out of will be that much
    bigger. Sure, you can make big money fast every now and then but like
    life, you can win the lottery too. Do you want to risk your stock market
    venture on those odds?

    4.) Remember That You’re Buying the Stock Not The Name – Too many people
    make the mistake of buying a stock because they recognize the name or
    like the product. That makes sense if you’re looking to buy it and hold
    it, forever! That’s not the strategy you want to go with, especially in
    this market. You need to get in the habit of making money and protecting
    your profits or limiting your losses. Just because STARBUCKS (sbux)
    makes great coffee (opinion) does not mean that you should buy the
    stock. They’ve been making the same coffee for a long time but the stock
    has ranged from over forty dollars in price to the mid teens. Your buy
    and sell decisions should be based on where the stock is and where it’s
    going to go.

    5.) You Weren’t There For The Wedding, Don’t Be There For The Funeral –
    This is an old horse racing proverb. If a horse had won several races
    and you had never bet on it, but now
    you wanted to, the wise men who had been around horses for years would
    say, “You weren’t there for the wedding, don’t be there for the
    funeral.” You get the best odds and most bang
    for your buck at the beginning and it goes progressively down from
    there. Look at RIMM. The stock had been on fire. It got over one hundred
    and forty dollars in price. Everyone was making money in it until they
    weren’t. People lost thousands and hundreds of thousands of dollars
    because they bought RIMM between 120 and 140 in price. The worst part,
    when it hit 100 they continued to hold, HOPING it would come back. Now
    RIMM is below 80. They missed the wedding, they should have remained
    unattached. (As of July 25th, 2009)

    6.) Don’t Buy Stocks Ahead Of Earnings – The allure of the stock market
    has always been and will always be the opportunity to make far more than
    you are risking. There should be a 5 -1 risk/reward ratio when you enter
    into a trade, not a 1 to 1. When it’s 1 to 1, you might as well be at a
    blackjack table. When stocks have earnings, the risk/reward moves from
    5-1 to 1-1. This is because we are expecting a significant move in the
    price of the stock but we’re not sure which direction the move will be.
    Nobody is. If you had lunch with the CEO of a company on the day before
    his company had earnings and he told you exactly what the announcement
    would be, you still would have no idea how that announcement would
    influence the price or direction of the stock. There are expectations
    and motives that will cause the stock to move and these are separate
    from the actual earnings and forecasts. There are plenty of
    opportunities to capitalize after the news is out and the risk/reward is
    much better.

    7.) A Buy And Hold Strategy Is No Longer A Viable Option – In today’s
    market, you are doing a disservice to yourself if you buy stocks and
    forget about them. With all of the variables coming into play (credit
    worries, oil prices, recession, stagflation) you need to take an active
    role in managing your money. This means protecting profits and even more
    importantly, limiting your risk. Placing stops below critical support
    levels will lower risk and give you the best chance for a profitable
    trade. Even if you do buy a stock and you are okay with it having a big
    drop because you “know” that in the long run, it will come back, how
    much of your money is going to be tied up in this stock, for how long
    and how much could you have made if you put that money somewhere else?
    You’re not a mobster so don’t forget about it, take an active role in
    managing your stocks.

    8.) Being Diversified Can Hurt You – If the market is heading down then
    being diversified means you are increasing your chances of losing money.
    Think about it, if the majority of stocks are moving down then a
    diversified portfolio means that you are more likely to own stocks that
    are going down. Instead, you want to be trading individual stocks or
    profiting from the hot sector. By being specific and particular, you are
    navigating through a downward spiral and really taking strong measures
    to dramatically increase your chance of success.

    9.) Expect The Best But Prepare For The Worst – Too many people enter
    into the stock market with high hopes. They have learned that you need
    confidence to succeed in life or they read The Secret. Either way, they
    have always been told that it’s better to focus on the good than the
    bad. That’s true BUT you need to be prepared for doomsday scenarios such
    as, “If this stock went to zero, would my life change?” If the answer to
    that question is yes then you
    have too much money in the stock market and you need to make changes.
    You should not trade stocks with money you can’t afford to lose. Your
    rent should not depend on the price of the stock. You should trade
    stocks when you have money set aside for that exact purpose and you know
    that this is money that you are looking to grow and snowball into
    something big but it’s also money that you are willing to risk. The
    stock market should only be life changing in a
    good way. There are no guarantees in the stock market and if anyone
    tells you otherwise, they are lying.

    10.) Don’t Focus On The Money – When trading stocks, you can’t focus on
    the hundred dollars you made or lost or the thousands of dollars you
    could have made or should not have lost. If you get in the habit of
    focusing on the money then you will cut your profits short. Now, I know
    I just said to expect the best but prepare for the worst. Assuming
    you’ve done that then you are now trading with money set aside for
    trading. Now, stop focusing on the money. Just focus on the right and
    wrong of trading and the money will come. Learn from your mistakes,
    remember the good things you do so you can repeat them and focus on the
    right and wrong. This will allow you to eliminate emotion and take your
    trading to a much higher level.

    Now, the key to avoiding all of these mistakes and the one thing you
    must possess to have any chance for stock market success is Discipline.

    In the stock market you will either learn the pain of discipline or the
    pain of regret.

  59. This morning is raining so I cannot go for my walk and thought I’ll log into SHC site and read from you happy party people. But I read MAN quarelling again.
    I think expressing contrary opinion in open forum is good in that it brings out the best of each other and we the ignorant readers can learn abit from it. But when opinions are expressed to derogate others and worst calling each other names and challenge to fights, we have degenerated to immature kids. When you get old, you should be confident and be happy with your own ability to the extend that there there is no need for you to prove your worth to anyone. Any verble attacks should be answered and explained, then leave to the readers to judge.
    I write this because I feel abit insulted that both of you Henry and Roger have assumed that we the readers are unintelligent. You have both stated you opinions and that should be enough. Insults, name calling and fights does not make you smart, it only shows your fear and uncertainty.
    I hope you both can stop this altercation and continue to contribute your knowledge to us. We will judge your worth.

    I think the rain have subsided now. Maybe I should see a doctor about changing my sex.

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