Trading shares – the Abel’s way, Wed 7 July 2010

Talking about buying and selling shares; we all have our own ways to play shares.  There are the brokers and there are the online platforms.  There are charts, and there are gut feels, and there are hear says.

I shall be organising a series for those who are interested in buying and selling shares.  I have met SHCians from different trading companies.  The dates have still to be confirmed.  But, to start with, we have someone Abel Tan, who buys and sells almost daily.  I would classify his style as gambling; and he is not shy about it.

Next week, Wed 7 July, Abel will be at the Brastilava Caffe.  Starts 4.30 pm and ends 6pm.  He will share with us his style of buying and selling shares.  No statistical proofs; And, he stresses its gambling stocks with merely acquired experience.  If you are interested, put your name here to get a seat.

Terence Seah 

Participants:  Weng Hon, Daniel Ong, Christina Pan, Rosalind Ong

43 thoughts on “Trading shares – the Abel’s way, Wed 7 July 2010

  1. I am just interested in the coffee and see my sweet Catherine, if she is still there. Long time did not have the time to visit Terence’s brainchild cafe. A poor man living hand to mouth. Can someone share ?

    Please register me for the coffee only hahaha!

    LeePatrick sj

  2. Hi Patrick #2,

    Thank you for your other interest. However, we would reserve this session for those who are interested in the above topic only. Come another time when we have a chitchat party.

    Terence Seah

  3. Abel-T, didnt catch up with you for the Tg trip, will definitely find time to listen to your share trading talk at a Brasaliva. Yes, I am already salivating and drooling…….

  4. I am trying to get this person, Mui Kian, a Retail Trader cum service provider of Advanced Alert Report. The methodology seem good Maybe some of you already heard of this. I just start on trial but is taking this opportunity to meet up with her to discuss further
    Hope she can come

    Best regards,
    christina

  5. Hi Terence,
    Please register me for the talk,great to hear from Abel on how he make money from the stock market. Please also provide the cafe address. Thank you..Bobby

  6. Hi Bobby, AnnieL, ChristinaP, Frankl, RosalindO, DanielO, and Weng Hon,

    Glad to have your participating on a trading chat – the Abel’s way tomorrow Wed 4.30pm to 6pm.

    Place: Caffe Brastilava, inside MPH Bookstore at 63 Robinson Road. Corner of robinson road and boon tat street.

    For others who are keen in trading, we will be inviting other SHCians to speak and discuss on various subjects. Hahaha, and hopefully more men will turn up. Cheers.

    Terence Seah

  7. PatrickL #2,

    So sorry for this extremely late reply but I have been kept busy and usually have time to just read the blog for a little while and then go off to do my errands.

    I have not been down to the cafe for quite a while now because I have just returned from my one month vacation. However I would be happy to buy you a cup of coffee if we chance to meet there. Maybe throw in a little pastry? hehe.

    Will catch you some day? Meantime stay healthy and happy 🙂

  8. Hi Terence
    I would like to bring 2 guests. but theres no reply from you leh.does it mean we just turn up and drink coffee? we are keen in the talk.

  9. Hi Rosalind,

    Good to hear of your interest. All activities are for registered SilverHairsClub members only. If they are registered, sure.

    Terence Seah

  10. bro terence & bro abel ,

    halo abang abel , wow long time we ve not met hor ???

    ok ,bro terence i also 1 2 poh mia hor…just back tis am 7morning 8 morning….cheong ah….
    sam huat huat huat

  11. Hi SHCians

    It was a pleasure just now to share knowledge on “Stockmarket gambling” organised by Terence and with his kind courtsey at Bratislava Cafe, Robinson Road.

    To recap, the gambling stocks are specifically the high volume counters which inherently tend to be volatile and currently are Genting, Golden Agri, Noble, NOL, Cosco, Capital Land, Yangzijiang, S Tel. It is votality that provide opportunity for speculators like me to trade for a profit/loss.

    With due respect, some of you may not be characteristically inclined to this form of gambling. Therefore, it would be better to trade on a short-term window of say between ten to twenty trading days(excluding weekends) time-frame. So, in other words one must pick up the shares.

    Another strategy to hedge on investments is to buy whenever prices become cheaper during the months May,June,July because by August most companies will declare their half year results and assuming profits are improved, the share-price will moved up. Likewise a similar scenario vis-a-vis Oct,Nov,Dec and companies declaring their annual results in Feb/March.

    Always check with your broker whenever one wishes to buy a stock which has awakened from its dormancy to avoid “holding the baby”. To be an active investor, one is required to follow financial/political news unless one’s time-frame is more than two years.

    Singapore is considered a “safe” market so prices will not collaspe without end unless there is a major economic/political crisis. A bird in hand is worth two in a bush – thus take profit in order not to feel regret that profits have turned smaller or even worse become a loss. One is very seldom wrong to leave some profits for the next buyer who is a more higher risk-taker.

    Buy into stocks where a big buyer has invested/to take over. If one misses the “early rush”, be patient as prices will definitely ease off a bit for one to come in. Healthway where the ex-remisier king has bought a large interest is a buy but with a time-frame of more than a year or longer.

    Lastly, do please exercise some rational judgement in that all forms of investment entail an element of risk, more or less and the bigger/quicker profits are more riskier(the reason why gamblers like me moves like “lightning”)and be wary of a tip particularly from “out of the blue”.

    Good Luck.

    Abel Tan

  12. Thank you Abel for your interesting talk and supplementing it with a write-up, post event. For me, it was a journey down Memory Lane.

    In my frenzied crazy days, I too played the contra in lots of thousands, refused to liquidate till I saw $10k or more in profit. They did come but few and sparse, which meant that I was paying contra losses regularly. No one can survive too long like that.

    Some of the companies I bought into – econ, seatown etc – are dead. I aint sure whether rotol, guthrie are still alive as i had long called it quits.

    Those who like to play contra, pls remember that if you have to cut & run, do. Dont procrastinate till you have at least made enough to pay commission. That day might never come.

    Good luck !

  13. Abel,

    You are a very skilful and experienced trader and not a gambler. Gambling is betting on an assumed outcome.

    You focused on selective stocks and have specific entry/exit price points which is methodical. You are disciplined in taking profit within 2, 3 or 4 ticks and in cutting your position within the “contra” period which is your strategy.

    Well done, mate.
    Cheers.

  14. Thamks Abel, i agree with Roger, yr way is not gambling. It is a systematic way of trading. You are giving a simple and practical way. The ‘professions’ out there in the market are charging a few thousand dollars to teach what you teaching for free. Difference is that their method is more detailed, technical and complicated and confuse ppl,
    rgds
    Tham Weng Hon

  15. Thanks Abel too. I picked up some informaton tips from you yesterday; and am sure will put the info to good use.

    Now, I am also looking for SHCians who are reminisers, and willing to come forward to lead our trading discussions. If you are a reminiser; and able to share with fellow SHCians, please let me know. Also, picked up from yesterday, some of us may need the service of a reminiser.

    Terence Seah

  16. Ben Foo was our remisier before he resign and left for Vietnam. Eng Chin(Philips Securities) has taken over his place. He seems to be like Ben, active and sending me trading info thru email. Should we contact him? I don’t know whether he is old enough to join our SHC club, however, Ben also do not look like a senior citizen to me.

  17. Hi Wen Hon #25,

    So nice of you to pick up the idea to share knowledge with fellow SHCians. In principle, I prefer to have speakers or moderators from within SHC. This activity is for SHC members.

    Terence Seah

  18. Abel’s “Stockmarket gambling” is actually termed momentum trading or punting. This form of trading is very popular with traders in a bull market. This form of trading is easy as we don’t have to bury head over FA or TA. But strict discipline is required to come out positive at the end of bull (understand 90% lose back to market eventually)
    In a range bound market with 2 months of correction this year it is a difficult market for laymen and understand even some pros would prefer to stand on sideline
    Last year was an exception year with many making at least 70% to more than 100% and some even 3 to 4 times of capital
    For me I still prefer value investing and punting only in bull market like last year
    I reckon most retirees would prefer to buy strong dividend stocks for some cash flows

  19. Many are presently caught in a raging bull run. Once the World Cup ends after 6 a.m. tonite (I expect the match will stretch beyond 90 minutes), punters will return in droves to the stockmart. With spools, casinos, we can hardly live normally without gambling, sigh.

    Moments ago, I was shopping at an Fairprice for detergent. It has a spool outlet and many strange looking characters were crowding round the dividend monitors. In this motley group were men with breasts huge as melons and beareded women whose eyes blaze more terror than terrorists.

    Haha, if all of us were to love football with this same intense fanaticism, we wd hv realised the goh vision of spore in WC 2010…………..

  20. Hi SHCians

    Thanks for the bouquet Tim, Roger, Weng Hon, Terence & Christina.

    Well, half the time my contra profits are less than $100 nett with mostly derived from the same day’s trade. The ratio of winnings/losses is Eight contra profits to cover Three contra losses. Contra loss “bulge” due to additional brokerage fees while contra profit is nett of brokerage fees.

    As an example – Buy 10lots ABC $1.02 and contra at $1.04 gives a gross profit of $200 and bkge is more than $70

    Buy XYZ $1.02 and contra at $1.01 result in a gross loss of $100 and bkge is also more than $70 (probably less a dollar or two from ABC’s deal due to lower dealt prices)

    As mentioned at Bratislava Cafe, the wonderful part of contra play is if one is trusted by the broker, one does not have to foot out a single cent downpayment to trade whereas at the mahjong table or at Sentosa/Marina Sands one has to bring along some cash more or less.

    The trick of the matter is as long as one has absolutely control “Greed”, the danger of speculation is markedly reduced. I beleive there are more than a hundred or two Sporeans whom make a fulltime living out of speculating in the stockmarket.

    Regards

    Abel Tan

  21. ” I beleive there are more than a hundred or two Sporeans whom make a fulltime living out of speculating in the stockmarket.” not hundreds but thousand…. I know of few who make money as easy as plucking durian..mabybe they have linked to BB info..

    At the moment I’m doing that so that when I’m truly retired I can do it fulltime as this is one of my passion pastime
    Suggest those who are interested in punting as living…to study US stocks…more volality…eg citi..pick stock with fundamental and undervalue to trade so that when you are stuck.. you are safe even to hold

  22. Hi ChristinaP #30,

    I see you are just as experienced and fluent with share trading. US stocks are just as exciting. At least, get to work night.

    I am sure we would love to hear from you, an inspirational talk. Will contact you offline.

    Terence Seah

  23. Good Morning SHCians,

    Care to share your thoughts about Parkway share?
    Hold till outcome? I am ‘guessing’ that negotiation will not end soon, will it drag? and may possibly go up to S$???…….

    thank you…….

  24. The graph looks dangerously high for me. seems to hv gap up. I don’t really know whether it will climb further up, but I won’t buy it. can’t be sure that it won’t come down (profit taking?)

  25. Hi guys!!

    For a long time I thought that there were only two main kinds of investors: the technicals and the fundamentals.

    Then I realized that there are many more: the speculators, the hedgers, the punters, the gamblers, the day-traders, the momentum-ers, the skimmers, the astro-gazers, and now the octopus-bettors.

    I think that investing is very personal and that you have to find and develop your own strategies and style. There is no one size fits all and there is no “correct” way.

    Singaporeans are an enterprenuerial lot (especially the Chinese) and they love to take a chance (gamble!). So this idea of making quick money spills over into investing.

    The only long-term investing that they would consider is life insurance (which is not investing at all) and they happily buy what their agent suggests would meet their financial objectives; even if it may take 30 years of paying premiums and yield a dismal return.

    Christina: If you are interested in US stocks, we may share some common views and objectives on US equities.

    But for me now, the “return of my money” is more important than the “return on my money”!

  26. Hi SHcians

    My take on the “psychology” of stockmarket gambling.

    I have discovered that many previous loosers including me,over-leveraged quite terribly and prior to the dot.com bust 2000/01, one can dealt with more than onebroker (I dealt with four) as there was no contract-value limitation overall on one’s particular account, except only at one’s trading account at one specific broker.

    My limitation at each broker was $100k whereas personally I could not cough out comfortably more than $70k cash then. Therefore to suffer losses of nearly double my affordability meant, kow-peh ah, tua tai chi leow-leow.

    With controls now set in, the market collaspe of early 2009 did notreport hardship news from stockmarket losses because all losses of varying amounts were sufficiently covered, in that say one’s limit is $100k, prices collaspe of within 5trading days of usually not more than twenty % will dent one’s pocket off #20k, a loss which may not overly stretched many speculators.

    It was over-leveraging in its extremity that caused the US financial crisis.

    Since 2000/01, brokers are also more careful not to inflate the limitations of their clients’ accounts so as to earn more brokerage. Brokers love speculators because of the high turnover of brokerage income. Nearly all investors do not trade more than six or seven times annually.

    By the way, Wall St was off 260points, thus yours truly will be eyeing Genting 1.14, Golden Agri 53.5, Noble 1.64, NOL 192, Indo Agri 2.12 for tomorrow.

    With due respect,my take is “when we feel frightened, is the time to buy”.

    Regards

    Abel Tan

  27. HI Abel,

    Please take it easy. There’s no fear yet, I dare say, far from it. My observation is there’s a lot of confidence, both in equities and in properties. You are not buying into fear yet. You ain’t seen nothing yet when or if it starts

    The risks from a double dip is not apparent yet. Why some are even arguing it’s the ‘same dip’.

    It does look like the liquidity injected did postpone the problems and liquidity crunch but the problem has not gone away. In fact it has become worse.

    What is new is a renewed sense of confidence in Asia and that pumping liquidity into any problem will make it disappear. But liquidity is very volatile and its behavioural characteristics just as temperamental.

    On the plus side this is now the reporting season and results are expected to be good. Reporting season ends in Aug 15, after our beloved National Day.

    Take care my friend and good luck as always. We can always do with some of it.

    To many more good years.

  28. Unfortunately SGX just drop a miserable 11 points (as at 10.05 am). I am looking forward for a drop of 30 to 50 points so that I can go for bargain hunting. It does not materialise as at this moment.

  29. Hi SHCians

    Thank you for your fair comments #37 Charles and incidentally, with due respect, are you the “Charles” who is quite regularly quoted in the Straits Times market report?

    My take is the US & European markets are still in the syndrome of short-term trades and particularly in Wall Street where many fund-managers trade almost daily.

    No, Weng Hon #39, we ere unfortunatley behind the “q” on Golden Agri at 53.5 last Friday 16/7. The past week we did two deals as follows: bought one lot DBS 14.38 on Wed 21/7 and contra Friday 23/7 @ $14.40 thus incurring brokerage loss of $80plus. On Thursday 22/7 we hit-n-run Cosco 10lots at 1.58/60 netting $80plus, so we are about quits.

    Previous deals for this July month were 10lots Genting 1.13/16, 10 lots Noble 1.70/72 and 20lots Asia Food Pty 60/61. This past week was a bit of hard luck for us as each time we “q” a bid lower than the lowest price of the day on NOL & Noble.

    Again, a gentle reminder that VOLUMES is a major indicator and therefore my take is Genting, G Agri and Capital Land appear unlikely to fall below $1.14, 55cts & $3.70 respectively. Cosco will have to maintain large volumes throughout next week to maintain price support.

    Friends, watch the volumes for a HIT-N-RUN on Z-OBee and Midas. We are still eying NOL 1.94, Noble 1.67 and UOB 19.10.

    Hi Steve #40, if Terence can organise another gathering, we can meet at Bratislava Cafe on Friday 20th August.

    Regards

    Abel Tan

  30. Hi Abel,

    Just for the record, I am not the “Charles” you asked about. You have it from the horse’s mouth.

    I have sometimes wondered who he is and from which company but I don’t even know him.

    Good luck to your endeavours.

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