I had come across SHC quite some time ago following the article about it in the newspapers but in the hurly burly world of work (still actively working and hope never to retire) it was relegated into the black hole of the mind with all the other KIV items. Recently I was talking to a friend, Sophia Lim, and she reignited my interest and thus signed up.
Last year I should have been able to withdraw on my CPF account but it was not to be under the new regulations. That’s how old I am.
Also, I’m bi. Bi-location that is – living both in Singapore and Bangkok. The nature of my work involves the running of two offices of which I try to spend equal time on. Thus in a typical month, I’m two weeks in Bangkok and two weeks back in Singapore.
Outside of work I’m generally very outdoorsy – sailing and scuba diving, play bad golf (my golfing motto : I play bad golf for a good time!) and simple activities like jogging, walking and swimming. I run with the Hash House Harriers but it’s never considered as a serious running group. I love travelling too but never on package tours preferring to be a free and independent traveller even if it means getting lost every now and then.
That’s me in a nutshell.
Hi Jeffrey,
See we have something common ie to’ing and fro’ing between Singapore and Bangkok. Bangkok is a popular destination for Singaporeans. So, keep yourself in the limelight.
Talking about 55, and this is something I have interest. To share experience with me, and I have not reached 55 yet, did you have to buy an anunity. What happens when you reach 55. Is this something automatic, or you have to work on it manually.
Terence Seah
Hi Jeffrey, Welcome to the club. Hash Harrier eh? Quite a unique bunch I heard.
Never mind about your CPF. You will gain interest on it and it will be much bigger by the time you take it out at 62.
Cheers.
Welcome, Jeffrey
I always admire fellas who travel on the free-and-easy route, especially independent ones.
Many Singaporeans need to be led all the way: not only in travel but also in our daily lives. I mean, we depend too much on the gahmen to set the tone, the rules, the OB (out-of-bounds) markers. We listen too much to the banks, insurance advisors, and the like. We need to educate ourselves more to think for ourselves.
On CPF: At present, there is a choice when you reach 55: Either keep the Minimum Sum with CPF till you reach 63 (now 63 and soon 65). Or buy an annuity with the Minimum Sum which will pay out when you reach 63 – 65 (depending on your age now).
So, Terence, it is NOT automatic (See, Singaporeans expect everything to be auto) and we need to decide: Whether to leave our CPF at the higher new rates and defer collecting it until we cannot “tahan” any longer. Whether to buy an annuity or leave the Minumum Sum with the CPF.
By the way, the gahmen seems to have withdrawn it’s hairbrain idea of an old-age annuity which would only pay out if you survive to 80 or 85. Not too popular when the amount paid in is not returned to your next-of-kin but pooled in the common fund.
Thanks for your comments,
Terence, turning 55 is a non-event for me as far as CPF goes. Nothing heard from them, nothing about annuities etc. So I just let it as it is. Anyway, I’m an independent traveller in not just the literal sense. As for retirement income or in my case just investment income as I hope I never need to use the ‘R’ word, I’d rather take things into my own hands. In my case it’s property simply because it is something I’m familiar with as it’s in my line of work.
Mary, the Hash House Harriers is sometimes described as a drinking club with a running problem. I used to run with one of the HHH clubs in Singapore but now I’m with one in Bangkok.
Hope to join you guys when I’m next in Singapore.
Hi Jeffrey,
I used to run with the Friday Hash, may i know which HHH u ran with in S’pore. I still remember running at the Pattaya Beach during the InterHash in the 80s. Were u there?
Happy hashing and boozing! ON ON……..
Jeff @ #4
Status quo is always very comfortable. Especially for something that has been a feature if our entire adult life CPF.
If you leave it in after what’s said and done then the suckers on you. Obviously, CPF is in no rush. And its not like you are doing charity as you are drum up your karma credit for the last trip.
How do you like the idea of having your money worm its way to purchase some very sick offshore banking assets in a very sick economy. Do you think you would be better off investing the money yourself.
Why not properties? It’s a stellar industry right now. I would rather buy a apartment near the IR for the next five years then have my money handed out in a golden parachute to some failed managers somewhere.
Or you can short CFD against your portfolio of stocks (partially purchased over the years with CPF). Many people made money doing just this right now on the back of the continuing sub=prime saga and looming US recession. Just put trailing stop losses on your short trades and enjoy your big slide down. Its a no brainer.
Will you buy US assets now? Why would you allow someone else to do so on your behalf if you can help it? In my case, if they didn’t put a padlock at the gate, I would be banging down the door. Anything is better. Even assets in Bangkok on the expectation of the return of Big T (not our T) would be better.
I can’t understand this phenomena. Is this why they call them Heartlanders and not Brainlanders. There must be some Freudian conspriracy or Jung economics in this.
Terence,
What happen to the edit function on comments? I am not trying to exhibit a dysxlexia condition over bad written and misspelt prose.
Hahaha! KT, welcome to the SHC!!
We forgive your dyslexia but not your amnesia… forgot your password, no?
On these SWF funds bailing out Merrill, Citi and UBS:
I can’t understand the logic behind it. And Singapore is such a small fry (dot) compared to the Arab funds whose moneys continue to pour in from the rising oil revenues. Can our US$6.88 billion staunch the blood loss of Citibank at US$9.38 billion and US$18 billion in asset writedown?!
Or UBS? at US$10 billion?
Or Merrill? Bleeding US$14 billion and getting a lifeline of US$13 billion from South Korea, Kuwait and Singapore?
Today’s MyPaper (Jan 18 pg A38) has an article by Vikram Khanna who says that GIC has got a great deal!
But he fails to underline what he himself stated as a worst case scenario: the RISK of a collapse of Citigroup (and UBS or Merrill) in the light of the current US economic recession. And the loss of our country’s reserves!
Money, which is so hard-earned (and so miserly handed out to our citizens…) thrown by the thousands of millions of US dollars to bail out companies which are almost as criminal in their loan practises as Enron or WorldCom. Yet I don’t see any prosecution of their executives; I see only their top guns getting hundreds of millions in retirement and pension benefits.
Yes, I believe we are living in dangerous times which can and will impact our retirement and our lives.
I sincerly request KT, Dennis and anyone else to give their take on the unfolding crisis and what we, SHCs, can do to avert loss and protect our assets!
Give credit where credit is due.
I do and I do also recognise that it has wisely & wily invested our money to make more money for spore. So what’s the gripe?
People whinge bcos of how the money which comes from them – tax, cpf – is used.
With a combined quantum close to $300 billion, how much is ploughed back to help the people (defacto owners of the money & euphemistically the happy-but-no-say lenders), esp the poor & elderly who are sick, usually chronic in the latter category?
Instead of helping thru forward planning, you now come out with means tests. Instead of building more hospitals using the $ made from investments, you build more prisons (I was amazed to see the vast development of penitentiary housing in Changi when I passed it recently).
People will rejoice and be thankful if, say (yes, a bit far-fetched in land scarce spore) a compound as large as AMK is dedicated as a hospital & health-care hub.
But you choose to put them on a means test so that you can save on subsidies. After people are used to it (like gst), it may not be so unpleasant to fix it further.
I can accept that people may become lazy and overly dependent if they’re pampered with limitless & endless subsidies.
At the same time, has enough been done to arrest the deterioration of the human character and moral values in general which is the mother of laziness ?
Instead of not just upholding the sancity of the family by paying it lip service, you’re telling us – more impressionable to the young – that what’s wrong if you’re kiasu?
It’s not wrong; it’s very very wrong.
A kiasu person wll hv no sense of honour – he cares for he, himself and his own name.
Brotherhood takes the backseat. Altruism and charity is put up for show, and a big show if you want to seek an applause that’s resounding & thunderous. Nobody can do that better than the international media
No wonder why HE has lost hope and said he wont see a gracious society in his lifetime (altho he is more than likely to live to see not 1 but 2 casinos).
Frankly, I just cant see what SHC can do. Or see it as an agenda in its objectives to do other than as citizens not only senior in age but also senior in the love for our country, will voice our concerns objectively but firmly, and leave it to our children to work things out themselves.
We are the older heroes. Resorting to street marches, scribbling greetings of big names on toilet walls are not and will never be in our heroics.
Ken @ #8
How can I forget my pass. I can still submit my comments, cna’t I? Do I need something else to edit now.
I think it is a conspiracy to tap what I really think of what and who. My bad habit is that often I write what I really feel and then temper my real views in more polite and inoffensive language in real time.
But not to worry. I will beat the system. I am editing my text outside before I submit it. And if I really get up someone’s ass, I can just point the finger of blame on the EDIT function or the lack of it.
Veronique, yes I was at Interhash at Pattaya. When was that? Mid 80’s I think. I used to run with Seletar HHH but now I’m with Siam Sunday HHH. If you are in Bangkok and feel like hashing do contact me.
Kong Thean, as I’ve mentioned, my investment of choice is propertis despite the illiquidity and that it is a physical asset – meaning maintenance. I just gave one of my apartments an in-between tenants sprucing up – not major work but still costs quite a bit.
At this point of time I’m looking more at Bangkok properties as they give better rental yields and in my opinion, has more up side. Property values has been in the doldrums for the past two years and I think it’ll start moving up soon.
Tim @ #9 and Ken @ #8
I concur with your views. I have nothing to add to your very complete description of our woes.
But we are not spectators to our own doom. We can be positive and proactive. We can do something about it. In fact, we can make a lot of money doing the very something if we are right on the money.
The point is that we have to do something and not just leave things as they are.
They are not necessarily wrong. They have taken a view that the US is bottoming out. Remember US have been sliding for a long time now. They are calling it a turn. Even as hard core US bankers refuse to take up bail for their fallen comarades. They enter where even angels fear to tread.
In betting against the trend, our funds are acting just like aggressive hedge funds. There is nothing wrong with being aggressive but risk should commensurate with return. The two lemon deals are paying a coupon of 7 and 9 % pa respectively. The lemon deals also have a capital risk/return component. Hedge funds typically expect to make upside of 20 to 50% nett in return for taking high level of risks that these bets entail. CPF (and their proposed annuity variations) are paying us a flat 3 to 5% pa. Where did the missing % go? I don’t know. Except it is not back to ordinary people like us who are supplying the risk capital.
As it is, we have no choice but to “tumpang” the bets. Yet it need not be this way. We can have either an opt-in or opt-out feature to these bets. For example, we could have made sure that all public funds steer absolutely clear of such bets. Put these bets into funds that the public can volunteer to subscribe using their CPF funds. Only problem is if they didn’t force the issue there may not have enough money to bet. If they are allowed to ask why, I think even the non-Brainlanders will ask why are they taking a 4% pa return for a 50% risk.
We have the suckers end of the stick. Moral of the story “We lose, we pay them. We win, they get paid”. And you still think that your money io safer doing nothing?
Cut to the chase. What can we do.
(a) If we believe that this is the last blood and the US has bottom up, then put your money against US$ assets. You can be buying US$ (in forex terms you will short the majors against the US$) and US equities/derivatives. If you are into local equities you will be looking at stocks which have a high exposure to the US markets. Many of these stocks have taken a beating eg the electronics industry. Dangerous, huh. Why you complain. It is twice as sane and not half as dangerous as betting the house on failed banking stocks in an economic crisis.
(b) If you believe that the trend is down, then do exactly the reverse. Short US assets with trailing stop losses on your trades. Ride it all the way down into the abyss. You can be very rich especially in a recession market where most people have nothing but debts that they cannot pay and relative values are very low.
These are times when fortunes turn for many. Bet on the right horse and you may end up hiring your boss and return the favour he has shown you all this while by making him kiss your …..
Don’t do anything and the twist of fate may go against you. The joke may then be on you as you find yourself in a new position pressed against the bottom of you ex-employee.
Hi Jeffrey,
Interhash was held from 28-31 Mar 86 and participated by hashers from many countries. I’m still keeping the big yellow souvenir towel. I used to join a few of the Seletar hashers to JB for runs but not in S’pore bcos Seletar HHH is a all men club. GM was William Cheng, am i rite? If i were in Bangkok, and have enough time, i will contact you for hashing.
Jeffrey @ #11
You are my soulmate.
Actually, physical real estate investment is also my first love. Enbloc-ing until the change of rules is the best business in real estate in the world. It is a unique Spore only opportunity.
There is no reason why anybody should buy properties anywhere else. The upside potential, even short-term, is phenomenal with millionaires made literally overnight on the right option.
I expect en-bloc to come back with a vengeance after CNY. This is in time with the IR run-up by late 2008/ early 2009. The only reservation is a full blown global recession led by US.
If a full blown global recession rocks in then most Singaporeans will be in deep shit. Spore Inc is making a one-way big bet with our money that the global economy will turn. If the economy goes, everything flushes down – IR, local stocks, CPF, property, reserves …
Against the sub-prime and collaterised martgage meltdown together with lower than low interest rates, the smart idea is to pick up cheap long term assets (of which property is one) in the worst hit countries eg US, UK etc. In situations like this get physical with their rent income not derivatives with high distribution costs. Can’t afford million dollar properties? Consider getting into TIC (Tenants-in-Common) arrangements. This is like an investment club for property assets.
Betting on BKK is a long bet on T Reboot to many. I am less sanguine. Don’t forget that the military has never been known to just turn over quietly and play dead. Just take General Whiskey, the other prominent WOG (Western Oriented General) in Pakistan. So the possibility of coups is still shuffling in the deck. BKK is in transition at the worst of times when the global economy is rolling on a dice. BKK has a huge dependency on US and global markets through its manufacturing and tourism. And BKK has just come through very hard times. Their reserves for a heavy downpour must have thinned out considerably. Their risk of cataclysmic failure would be much greater than Singapore who is, at least, negotiating the future from a position of strength. If the world goes down, all Titanics will sink. Do you prefer to be in Spore’s ship with one hole in its hull or BKK with two? If the clouds clear, Spore with its stability and aggressive showhand long bets would recover much faster than most countries in the world.
Back to global markets. On the upside, many people will make fortunes. This is a no-brainer. Just don’t get too greedy.
On the downside, one will have to manage the risks. If you don’t yet know how to hedge your downside, learn as if your life depends on it. It may very well be.
If you must insist that hedging is something only gardeners do, then all we can do is to say a little prayer for you.
Kenneth, your comment #8 refers
I’m not good in investment as the wise man do. I just know cut and paste
The following is some points I cut and paste from an article of Straits Times 9/1/2008 “As dollar loses it charm, the world frets”. May be it can give some points to your question. The following is it:
Sovereign wealth funds sitting on billions of dollars generated by trade surpluses and oil revenues, factored in the falling dollar when they made head-lining-grabbing investments last year, such as the Abu Dhabi funding buying a US$7.5 billion (S$10.7 billion) stake into Citibank and Singapore’s GIC investing US$10 billion in UBS.
Mr Gary Hufbauer of the influential Washington DC-based think-tank Petersen Institute for International Economics, explained the logic behind the moves:”They know very well that, over the next five years, the dollar is likely to decline against other currencies. But a big move out of dollars is likely to precipitate the decline that will in turn undermine the value of their remaining dollor holdings. They also know that, over a period of five or 10 years, dollar assets have had better returns than yen or euro assets. Sop they conclude the one sensible way to hedge is to put part of their dollar hoard into equities, corporate bonds and other dollar assets”
The logic behind the moves should be quite complicated, and may be this is just one of it.
Andrew Yeung @ #16
Very good example. We can discuss this in depth at the next SHCIC investment club meeting on 24 Jan.
Small point first. Could be just typographic error then it doesn’t matter. But if you had actually cut and paste from his accurate written text, then he can’t spell and the last sentence is illogical. Equities and bonds move in different directions. In normal cases, a strategy will dictate that you do one or the other but not both at the same time. If he is saying it without a timeframe, the sentence is a motherhood statement to the effect that “you can do something some of the time.” It is just pretty words strung together without direction or determination.
Big point now. Let me illustrate with a simple example. If you have a car and it falls in value because more people are staying at home to watch Korean dramas on cable. What can you do to hedge your value of investment in the car? The logical thing to do will be to buy shares in your cable TV company; or buy the distribution rights to Jumeng, the current hot Korean drama and resell it at twice the price to fans who can’t wait to see the ending. (For $10, I will tell you the ending. All credit cards or Paypal accepted.)
What you DON’T do in hedging your exposure in car investment is to buy more cars. It is even wrong to call this hedging. Technically, we have another term for this. In polite language, it is call “Averaging Down”. Classical invesment text calls this suicide.
If we have to do something in US denominated assets, can we do better with our $20 billion? Plenty. All it takes is some imagination.
Eg just yesterday Stemagen in USA became the first embryonic stem cell research company in the world to recently create a cloned human embryo. If we dangle $ 1 billion into this company, we stand a good chance to lead the world in the development of patient-specific embryonic stem cells for human therapeutic use, potentially including developing treatments for Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other degenerative diseases. So what if it is a black hole research? I rather pour money into this black hole than to contribute $2 to some failed bankers’ retirement fund. Even if it does not succeed, we know that we have played a noble part in saving mankind from disease and pain. Don’t forget. With companies like Stemagen there is no specific country risk. If Stemagen succeeds, the whole world benefits.
Gary would have us believe that it is quite complicated to save the really embarrassing questions. Actually it is very simple and transparent. It all boils down to doing the right things for the wrong reasons.
Hi Jeff,
Interesting to know you work and live in both countries. I did travel and did stint of shor t volunteer in Khao lak for about 2 months.
I did snorkelling but have yet to try scuba and will be interested if there is a group chance. I am sort of an allrounder, and try to do everything from short board wind surfing to playing billard . So where do you golf in BKK and Spore , maybe we should have a game when u are in Spore ?
I do run, but only about 5km ,twice a week, badminton,line dance,rhuma,rock n roll and golf once a week.
So scuba dive, sky jumping, mountain climbing is still in my to do list. Tried wave surfing in Phuket , can barely stand up on the board ,maybe waves were too small but it was more than i can handle.
Cheers
Allrounder, aka , Ronald (Beng) Wi
Ronald, the only time I played in Singapore was once at Changi Golf Club and that was donkey years ago. Other than that it’s the executive golf course at Seletar. The times that I played in “Singapore” were at Johore or Batam. I’m not sure I’m allowed on Golf courses in Singapore-no handicap, PC only. In Bangkok I play at the many golf courses around depending on my kakis.
But then my priority is being out at sea. It’s easy nowadays to get qualified as a recreational diver. The basic open water course take around 3-4 days. Do it and we can go diving.
Yes, I happened to be there when you played at the Changi Golf Club donkey years ago. You then left after a very good game.
Many years later today, that poor donkey which was left behind is still there wailing for the day of your return. It has to go home………….