Invest in Foreign Currencies – ST 4 May 2008

Everybody should cut this out. Today ST Sun May 4 2008 ( Invest Page 19) has a lead article on Foreign Currency investment. The areas examined are

(a) Buy low, Sell high ie trading foreigh currencies

(b) Carry Trade

(c) Invest in high yielding currencies like Aussie and Kiwi

The ST report  relates mainly to physical currency converted from SGD. It is what most layman would do when they think of foreign currency. But this is an inefficient and costly way to address to opportunities in the currency world.

You should be thinking about forex which is a leveraged and derivative of the underlying foreign currency. The confusion is because they share very similar name.  You can do everything you want to with physical currencies much more efficiently with forex.

(a) This is a no brainer. It’s just directional trades with forex

(b) It doesn’t really make much sense to do simple carry trade in both physical and derivative. The underlying volatility of currencies will make the carry trade irrelevant. In the end the cross rate between the currency will dominate and decide the P&L in the trade most of the time.

(c) Long the physical and hedge with the derivative. Eg buy the KIWI currency for the near 9% interest rates for long term. Dynamically Value Hedge (DVH) the KIWI and USD forex. The likelyhood is that you will make three ways – capital gains on the KIWI, interest income and DVH profit.

Compare to the conventional method. If you just long the physical KIWI, whatever you make on the interest rates you may lose back on the KIWI to SGD conversion given the strength of SGD. You don’t have the benefit of any profits from DVH.       
 

Author: Wong Kong Thean

Interests: Join any activity like stay and tour plans.

37 thoughts on “Invest in Foreign Currencies – ST 4 May 2008”

  1. Here are some interesting facts from another report.

    Normally it is thought that retail players account for only 10% while the interbank accounts for 70% of daily turnover in Forex. This is incorrect.

    The daily turnover has increased to US$3.2 trillion in Dec 2007. Interbank activity accounts for only 43% of the daily turnover. The balance is accounted for by retail brokerages. Retail players are usually the end user of retail brokerage. Retail traders are a force to be reckoned with these days.

    EUR/USD is the most active pair. Together with USD/JPY and GBP/USD, these 3 currency pairs accounted for more than 50% of the above US$3.2 trillion in daily turnover.

    UK is the biggest trading center in the world, NOT USA lah. Singapore has fallen to 5th place from 4th!

    Another interesting fact. Forex option grew 81% over the last survey! Instead of having stop losses, more players are playing directional option and many brokerages are jumping on the bandwagon.

    Source :

    Bank of International Settlement.

    http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfxf07t.htm

  2. As reported in the BIS report, many traders are resorting to currency options as a “safe” bet in the high risk/return of forex.

    If you are interested in directional options, here’s a better alternative.

    You can DIY your own quasi “at the money” currency option with forex. Pay less and contingent “premium”. If you are right “in the money” the first time, you punt for free. No roll over date. Play as long as you right for small “premium” made up of the carry. Better leverage and more liquidity.

    Benefit yourslf rather than the banks and financial instruments.

  3. Hi KT

    Would you like to share :

    1) How many % make money among the banks and retails?

    What are the risks and reward ratios? and winners and losers ratios?

    2) What are the fundamental, technical and strategic tactics and strategies do the successful use?

    3) What platform(s) do the banks and retails use?

    4)If there are trading systems/ methods available; are their results consistent and auditable ?

    5) Are their systems parameters transparent, or black box or dependent on the programmers/traders based on historical data/trends ? Version upgrade, how often?

    You do not need to repeat the questions, appreciate concise answers and straight to the point/question(s), just state the question number will suffice.

    Please do not bring in irrelevant topics, stay within the questions.

    Cheers and thanks,

  4. Andrew @ #3

    I fail to see the relevance of your questions. As far as I know we don’t have another insitutional trader, past or present, in SHC. Unless you are as big as Warren or Soros, the institutional trading patterns are of absolutely no interest to even the sophisticated trader.

    The trading systems of all proprietory houses and hedge funds (moreso the banks) are all highly confidential material. There’s enough bank secrecy act in there to lock you up and throw away the key.

    Much of the secrets are kept in ABS and MAS libraries. If you have access you can find out. But its like “if I tell you, I’ll have to kill you first”.

    But if their recent trading record is anything to go by, I wouldn’t bother. I’ll rather watch the latest brain-dead korean drama than to waste time finding out what they are doing.

  5. Hi KT

    They are relevant questions for anyone who is keen on FX trading; otherwise it would be merely trading without logics, technical knowledge and sound understanding of solid platform.

    Warren Buffett, George Soro, Jim Rogers, our Singapore Peter Lim (my schoolmate at same cohort) or any successful investor did not turn into a billionaire overnight.

    All have started with humble backgrounds, logical and disciplined platforms with diligence, constancy in learning, results and compounding results with deep understanding and entry and exit/take profits at planned trading/investing significant levels/range.

    There are worthy lessons to emulate and learned.

    Warmest regards.

  6. Correction at #5 last para…

    …with deep understanding of entry and exit/take profits “points” at planned trading/investing significant levels/range.

    This is Trading/Investing Management.

    delete and, replace with “of”.

  7. Hahaha!!

    You guys! You’re both coming from different ends… I mean… there are basically two main types of people: the Traders and the Investors.

    By that, I mean that the pure Trader uses technicals to determine their trades and is usually short-term in outlook. He looks at current trends and opportunities, and is in and out of the trade when it moves for or against him.

    The pure Fundamental Investor looks at company financials, PE, ROI, past performance, etc, all with the aim to buy at an appropriate price. He will have a longer term perspective and is not likely to trade that often.

    Of course, in between, there are many variations and species and seldom is one a pure Trader or Investor.

    Singaporeans are a queer mix but more of a “gambler” by nature. He punts when the stock market is in an uptrend, listening to rumours from his collegue, neighbour, or butcher.

    At the same time, he buys a lousy insurance policy, whether endowment, unit-linked or whole life.

    He lines up especially when the Toto draw reaches $3 million… and pays millions in jackpot earnings to the favourite country club.

    Yet he quietly socks away his CPF for that rainbow-in-the-sky when he hopes to retire by 62… no, 63, 65… no, maybe never?!

  8. Hi Kenneth

    a) For a serious trading or investing business person, he /she would look into three foundations : 1) fundamental analysis (FA) and key business fundamentals 2) market trends, charts and liquidity – price and volume (TA -technical analysis) and 3) economics and geopolitical policies, regulations and trends.

    Having one aspect of foundational knowledge/understanding, either FA, TA or economics/geopolitical data is not sufficient to be wise and sound in business investing/trading.

    Good to treat trading or investing in any instrument (real, shares, FX, bonds, options or derivatives) as a conscious sensible business dealing; otherwise stay out is the best, to avoid losses.

    The basic premises in doing business is to earn a living or to build capital formation.

    B) If these three foundations are not sound and known, it is best not to trade or invest. To depend merely on “hear said”, blindly trust the “salesman’s black box”, herd syndrome or rumour milling, it is akin to doing business based on “rumoured talks of the street” and on quick sand.

    Then the usual resultant – only 5% will gain is no surprise.

    C) There are thousands of meta trading systems marketing in the world now. Just click on the web and type meta trading or expert advisers, one will see thousands “so called auto FX systems” .

    D) Am keen only with the substance and soundness of investing/trading elements, foundations and fundamentals. That is why I seek deep practical knowledge for greater professional understanding and action.

    Whether it is investing or trading, the distinction is thin. An investor who buys or sells (trades) monthly or weekly depending on circumstances is doing sensible business deals within risks and money managing parameters.

    E) It makes business sense to be adaptive, relevant and nimble in an ever changing business and economic cycles/circumstances.

    So, Kenneth, I am pro business with 3 (not just any one) balanced and solid foundations.

    If there are suitable solid auto trading systems, with proven manual systems, am very very keen.

    F) It is the solid proven manual systems( with sound logics and parameters) that incorporate computing strength for greater speed and enhanced accuracy/precision.

    Understand the usefulness of computing strength because am also a qualified NCC systems analyst. I embrace it for greater productivity, enhanced effectiveness and sharper efficiency.

    Warmest regards

  9. Ken @ #7

    Exactly my own thoughts. But I am happy to play both ends.

    Andrew doesn’t see the difference between investment and trading. His own appetite, aptitude and approach is almost purely investor-fundamental.

    I asked him once about private equity investment project. It seems that he is not into that either. So I guess it must be mainly academic interest.

    Nothing wrong with that. Except that you have to look elsewhere for income generation to buy your lifestyle choices. Then you can ponder over the mysteries of life in the comfort that you richly deserve.

  10. Hi KT

    Again you are too presumptuous again.

    Perhaps in Singapore, only KT Wong knows trading and investing.

    Then, stay within the topics of FX trading and share the key features of your ATM trading systems.

    : ))

  11. Hi KT at 9 para 3:

    On your private equity investment project, you like to spell out the terms of reference.

    No academic talk please.

    Would consider if they are in alignment.

    Cheers,

  12. Hi Andrew #11,

    I am no forex trader, although I would like to dabble or play with foreign currencies, more so to learn what the newspapers are talking about every Sunday. Although you and KT have your own viewpoints, I think we should also give due respect to the person who initiated this thread. If the initiator chooses to take a certain position, after numerous rebutts from you, so be it.

    And, we would also respect your views, if you initiate your thread; even if others disagree or do not share your opinion. With your talent and knowledge, you can easily hold your own session, and invite others to hear you.

    Terence Seah

  13. Terence @ #12

    Thanks for your views.

    I think so too. The purpose of such a thread is to offer information to be shared so that members can benefit from a rather specialised area of income generation. If it helps to provide an option for financial freedom for some, then we will have achieved our goal.

    Andrew.

    Please don’t take this personally. This is not the intention and it would serve no purpose. It is important however to point out what is apparant to us to be a basic mistake in fact. If investing method is mistaken for trading method and vice versa then we would put a lot of newbies into financial jeopardy if they put this into practise. This will be a great disservice to all.

    In a thread like this I owe a duty of care to point this out. Otherwise, who knows how many people may take this literally if not challenged.

    Instead of generalities why don’t you outline the steps of what you believe to be a investment or trading methodology. We can discuss specifics in depth. Otherwise, you can critique some of the strategies outlined here. Don’t you think that this is much more useful for a general audience ?

    Let’s get back to sharing interesting trading strategies.

  14. Here’s a very interesting idea shared with us by a member during last night’s trading training.

    Covered call warrants is where you write call options against an inventory of underlying stocks. The main idea is to provide a recurring income stream against your stocks.

    – Writing a covered call consists of the sale of a call while simultaneously owning the underlying security. The seller of the call (the writer) is usually negative or neutral on the direction of the underlying security. Although, it can also be viewed as a mildly bullish position. Should the underlying security rise in price, he will not participate fully in the rise. However, he has now protected himself should the security decline in price. If the underlying security remains relatively unchanged, he will profit if the call expires worthless.

    – An investor would want to write calls against the stock that he owns to increase income and decrease the volatility of his portfolio. Owning the stock outright, has the disadvantage of leaving the owner vulnerable to sideways moves and declines in price. In fact, the only time the call writer doesn’t do well writing a covered call is if the underlying security rises in price by a substantial amount. The call writers position will outperform the other position if the underlying security rises in price slightly, stays the same, or declines in price. Because of the advantages of writing calls, many portfolio managers, institutions, and private investors, are writing more and more calls.

    – Since you can buy but not write or sell options in Spore easily, this strategy does not apply to local stocks

    – You earn the premium writing the at or near the money call. If the price rises, you deliver against your inventory as the option is excercised. If the price falls, you stand to keep the premium and your stock.

    – This assumes that you can afford to buy underlying foreign stocks mostly USA and European. Yuo don’t have to keep many. A friend made a lot of money focussing on just a few stocks including Apople, a market favourite. The capital necessary to play this strategy well is about $50 K.

    – You must be constantly watching both your option and stock.

    – In return for the steady income from premium writing, you give up the opportunity of profit in the event that the price of stocks rises. You normally will buy high potential growth stock in order to derive good premiums. Sometimes it is quite a pain to see your stock running up $30 to $50, and all you get is your 10% pa ROI basis the underlying stock value. (My friend reported 6% per month but I think this is wrong. If not, I will appreciate if I am corrected).

    – Seemingly, smaller return for less risk in the shorter term is the nature of this game. Howewever in the long term (eg 10 to 30 years), you will enjoy the full run of the stock price. Use this strategy, to hold on to value stocks and derive a recurring income from the holding.

    – This is an ideal Value Trading Strategy in the short term and Value Investment Strategy in the long term.

    – For local stocks, try Scorebot’s house strategy to short against the CFD to hedge your stocks using the ATM. It has the same effect, less costly and more profitable.

  15. Hi KT @ 13

    Rest assured, I do not take your comments personally.

    When they are presumptuous, I point them out concisely and request depth of facts, terms of reference and parameters.

    Cheers,

  16. A @#15

    If you have interest in participating in a SPV for private equity circa $150 to $200 mio, find me at Scorebot today evening Tues 6 May.

    This is the last day of the current ATM course today and it is Live Trading day. Come down and see if it is really that easy to make real money.

  17. Hi KT

    Have managed those sizes and beyond for many years.

    If have personal size of that, have many partners/groups to work with lah! TY for your offer.

    No interests with your ATM unless have depth and breadth of facts/understanding of systems logics, parameters and operating platform for risks mgt purposes.

    Less than 10 yrs ago, when PL has almost 100M, he has several focus groups. Today worths > 1B.

    Cheers,

  18. Hi Andrew K,

    Do you know Peter Lim? You seem to know him well, from a long relationship since your RI days.

    Were you one of his focus groups? Did you make money from his tips?

    Share some of your stories here for our education and curiousity. I am sure it will make for interesting reading.

    Cheers

  19. Hi KT @14,

    I would not recommend covered warrants in any form. In any case, issuing c wrts here in SGX is not possible unless you have a bank backed name. If anyone is bullish on the stock, to hedge by writing a c wrt is illogical. When you are proven right, and the share escalates, there is a very good chance your c wrts will be bought by the insiders, mkt traders, punters whatever, and your chance of a good run is immediately lost. If you are wrong and the price has declined, the returns or premiums from writing those c wrts are small and will not be sufficient to offseet your loss on the underlying investment. There is only one possibility where your can make money from writing wrts and that is when the mkt trades sideways without triggering your strike price, and that is assuming you are lucky not to get whipsawed or triggered on maturity date. All these are possible and cannot be brushed aside. Of course I can ask if your view of the mkt is that it is range bound or trading sideways, why would you invest?

    If like many people, they take a position based on multiple ‘what-if’ scenarios, and hedge and diversify and buy puts and do long-short hedging, why bother to invest? The whole process is convoluted, expensive and time-wasting.

    Investment requires taking a risk, estimating the risks, monitoring the risks and reacting to the risks. I am more impressed with Eleanor’s friend? Who waits for an extreme situation to occur and takes a naked position against the extreme. This only happens a few times in a year, as experience shows. Hwe waits for this opportunity and takes a meaningful bet.

    I will give another example, say you go to the casino, all the games are predicated on chance, and the odds are against the player, benefitting the house. The best odds are in roulette when you play ONLY red or black.
    But still it is a game of chance, because it can come out either way (excluding zero, which is the house advantage). Don’t bet ALL the time, instead bet only when you see a series of identical colours, ie if it has been showing red, consecutively for, 5 throws. The chance of a 6th throw resulting in the same red is progressively less, but the chance of a red or black appearing is still equal at 50:50 (excluding the house advantage again). So you bet, say $1000, if you lose, you bet $2200, and you continue till the 8th round when you would have lost your nerve, or you would be prevented for continuing by the house, which typically allows you to run/bet for 8 to 13 times consecutively. Do you get the logic? It does not mean that you cannot be wiped out if the balls shows red for up to 8 to 13 times. In that event, you will be wiped out. But statistically, unlikely.

    Having outlined the above, I don’t recommend it, as gambling is emotive and the odds are against you. Any miscalculation, loss of nerves, wrong data can be very painful. Gambling is a form of entertainment, don’t kid yourself, there’s no advantage and odds are poor, sometimes the ‘entertainment’ is also torturous and painful and fatal.

    The lesson is simply that if you do not have an advantage, don’t bet. If you think you can do better that the hordes of mkt players, proprietary traders, analysts, fund mgrs, insiders, investors, you will be mistaken. They are paid to do a job, and they are on it full-time, sometimes overtime. They have scores of support, institutional, legal, financial, even ‘greasers’, to help them. Always think your opponent is better than you and try to outthink the mkt. Don’t look for short-cuts unless you can cover the risks.

    Unfortunately with the interest rates so appallingly low, and inflation of basic commodities, (cost-push inflation) trending up because of dd and ss factors, lowered intrinsic value of the USD, it also means that investors have no choice but to bite the bullet and face the risks head-on. What can we do?

  20. A @ #17

    Then can you help to pass on the deal to any of your conacts interested and currently has the appetite. It is a very promising special situation project. NDA of course but direct top level negotiations.

  21. KT, do you think many even the supposed financial gurus of SHC know yr acrnoyms like SPV, NDA? Heee, SPV may be mistaken as the cousin of SUV and NDA? Never Deny (an) Affair……………….

    Btwn Oei & Peter, my money is down on Oei, anytime. He started to shine since his coup on UIC after bidding his Golden Light family adios.

    Peter? Well, he had sreong support from very good clients in his trading days which built a solid base for the take-off, married well which also helped. Perhaps wilmar is his best bet todate.

  22. Hi Tim @23,
    I didn’t know Oei HL was Peter Oei, well I live and learn.

    FYI Peter Lim did not marry ‘well’, he’s divorced from Venus and she got her wealth from the divorce. Nice try.

  23. Charles, you run the risk of upsetting Eka if you christen his son when he’s till alive. And nice try to define “marrying well” in another sense.

  24. Hi KT Wong

    I would appreciate if you can enlighten me on your No (b) and (c):

    (b) Carry Trade – how do you do your carry trade and how do you make the profit?

    (c) Invest in high yielding currencies like Aussie and Kiwi – Kiwi getting 9% interest rates for long term and how do you get the interest income and DVH profit from DVH the Kiwi and USD forex.

    Please illustrade with charts and explanation.

    Thank you very much.

    Warm regards
    Sophia Lim

  25. Sophia,

    Charts and explanation? Ask Terence. How do put anything but text?

    The concepts of carry trade and investment in high yielding assets is easy enough and easily accessible from the internet. Many people are doing it especially the latter in AUD and KIWI. But its like swimming. There is only so much you can learn from the poolside. To be able to really swim yu have to jump in.

    The detail mechanics are covered in the course / mentorship. You should have a live trading environment to really appreciate.

  26. charles chua@19

    On your illustration of a roulette bet:

    I must disagree strongly with you on predicting the next roll: If there was a string five reds, “The chance of a 6th throw resulting in the same red is progressively less”.

    You do submit that the chances are still 50/50 in the next phrase, but you again reinforce your claim by your last statement in the para: “But statistically, unlikely.”

    Unfortunately, you may have perpetuated an error of logic that make many gamblers and traders take a “chance” and consequently lose their pants.

    The chance of a “red” or “black” is still 50:50. The roulette wheel does not have a memory and any colour is possible at any point of time, whether there has been a string of five, ten or even fifty blacks.

  27. Hi Kenneth T,

    You are right in that every throw is still 50/50 for red or black. This is referred to as the ‘Gambler’s folly’.

    My point is you do not bet till the table strings togther a series of red in CONSECUTIVE fashion, say 5 or 6 and you bet a SERIES of bets, each subsequent bet more than double the previous bet. Your series is now for another colour to come out. In that way you have the advantage of the statistical pattern drawn out. Like I said you can be wiped out if the throw continues to show red for another 5/6 throws, meaning what is the chance of a series of reds for 12 times?

    Personally I would not gamble in any fashion and I wrote that not to encourage gambling in any fashion but if you must do it, at least bet when you have an advantage, which is never. Most people also do not have the nerve to continue beyond 4/5 bets, in which case the experiment will fail. Application of the above also requires unflinching discipline which most gamblers do not have.

    The best advice is ‘Don’t gamble’. You must take risks but no gambling

  28. Charles @ #19

    I’ll answer in parts. Your comments in quotes.

    Let’s get up to speed with each other. I think that you may have missed a beat or two here.

    “If you are wrong and the price has declined, the returns or premiums from writing those c wrts are small and will not be sufficient to offseet your loss on the underlying investment.”

    This is a specific strategy involving only writing covered CALLS. At the point of buying it is the future expectation of prices that matter at that point in time. By scanning expiry dates and strike prices rlative to curent market price, you will only write those call options that gives you sufficient premium for the risk/return or you won’t trade. Once written if the price drops, you pocket the premium.

    We have another guru that specializes on writing puts but this is more like not covered (ie you do not own the underlying stock). Theoretically, there is also an interesting field of covered puts which is the selling of a put option while being short an equivalent amount in the underlying security.

  29. Charles @ #19

    I’ll answer in parts. Your comments in quotes.

    “if your view of the mkt is that it is range bound or trading sideways, why would you invest?”

    The options solution is pretty simple. When the markets don’t move, you think SELL. Almost any spread in which you can sell premium for a credit to your account can be viewed as a sideways strategy. The trick can be in understanding why. As it happens when playing directionally, you make money only when the stock you’re playing moves in the direction you’ve chosen. And even if the stock does move in the right direction, your option play could still lose if the move doesn’t occur fast enough due to time decay. When you sell time, you don’t need to pick a direction, and time decay works for us, not against us. You can’t normally do this for local stocks.

    If you are long underlying stocks, then writing covered calls is an excellent strategy.

    If you don’t have the underlying stocks or you prefer to deal with local stocks, it is much easier to range trade the CFD using an algo like ATM. This is a job that ATM (signal based is OK for low volatility and low liquidity single stocks instruments) is brilliant for local stocks.

    But there is also a fallacy. Do you really know whether you are in a ranging or trending market and for how long? Its then better to adopt a long term ATM strategy like long stocks, short CFD strategy. You can create a bias for swing trading like in the slow summer and non-reporting months.

  30. Charles @ #19

    I’ll answer in parts. Your comments in quotes.

    “….The whole process is convoluted, expensive and time-wasting.”

    You won’t want to use a rifle in the water and a spear gun on land. The choice of Weapon of Wealth Creation is situational. And you want to be armed with the mother-of-all arsenal when you are out there in the market. Any which way but win.

    “…waits for an extreme situation to occur and takes a naked position against the extreme. ”

    I personally don’t like picking bottoms or pinching tops. Options is good. But there is a better, no-time-decay method using CFD’s to simulate an option plus condition. You determine your own premium that you want to pay.

    “…roulette..”

    I agree with Ken. You are wrong. The theoretical probability of the nth throw of the coin is always 50:50. The key is the table limit. If you have unlimited table limit you can burst any house. You can’t do this in a casino. You can always do this in a derivative market like forex. This is where you have the advantage over the house.

    “If you think you can do better that the hordes of mkt players, proprietary traders, analysts, fund mgrs, insiders, investors, you will be mistaken.”

    This used to be a urban legend protected by a shrould of mistaken invincibility. Have you read the news of the United Banks of Singapore today. Read between the lines and guess where our CPF has gone.

    Do you see the light now? If you are given a chance today, would you not put your money on your monkey in a box against the whole lot of those on the tree.

  31. HI Sophia and KT,

    In a carry trade you would borrow Yen and exchange it to a higher yielding currency, say NZD, A$ or the US$. After 3 mos or so if the rates are similar to your purchased rates, you would have made some money from the incremental or higher interest rates. You can also lose if the Yen goes up and the NZD/AD/USD go down.

    Carry trades were very profitable some 3 to 6 years back, ie from as far back as 2001. AD was about just over parity against the S$ and the NZD less than S$0.80. If you had bought then you can exchange it for S$1.26 or S$1.06 for AD and NZD. Institutional traders and even the japs were betting on the Yen to stay low and rates too. Their bets on the AD and NZD eg paid off quite well. They were so big that they were known as the ‘uridashi funds’ and even Jap housewives were trading the mkt. As in all good ideas, they start to unravel over time as the interest differentials are artificial and not sustainable in the longer term. So in 2006 onwards ther were some close shaves , particularly in the NZD (which I happened to follow) when the NZD had a lot of volatility ranging from 1.18 to 1.03 (I think, working from memory). I remember clearly in the beginning of this year, a banker appeared on CNA and said that carry trades were a no-no for this year onwards. True to his prediction the NZD is now 1.06+, it was 1.14 some weeks or mos back and worse, the Yen has appreciated very strongly against the USD. I an not familiar with the cross rate but it will suffice to say that all Yen carry trades will lose up to 30%, before transaction costs.

    Note if you change from S$ to Yen to NZD/AD, the route will be S$, Yen, USD, NZD, ie 4 exchange rates losses of 25 to 50 pips per transaction. The banks are not transparent but that’s how they make extra money.

    You might be interested to know that before 1998 the Thais were big carry traders. They borrowed USD, on a premise that the THB were ‘fixed’ against the USD. Up to the day before the Thai Finance Minr was still denying there would be any devaluation of the THB. Next day the THB dropped from THB 24 to THB 48, triggering the Asian Financial crisis.

    So I would remember the events before embarking on any carry trades. Like the banker, this can be the tail end and the risks are greater, shown by the greater volatility on the NZD. The AD seems to be buffered by their strong commodity exports. But that is another argument altogether.

    BTW where do you get 9% rates from NZD? Is it a finance coy or a bank?

  32. Charles & Ken

    We are getting old. In our days, when we lose we take responsibility. The Japs even slit their bellies for honour.

    Don’t worry. Now we have no responsibilities. We only have “executive responsibility”. Its like a limited company. Executives play three monkeys and they will be OK.

    So if you lose money, you can always tell your wife that the economy is bad. Or if she doesn’t understand recession, blame it on the guy who fixed the window grill.

  33. Hi Charles

    Like to expound your FX experience during our one-week expedition in June, please.

    Am all ears to listen.

    Cheers,

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